Ian Holloway, Marc Bircham and Danny Shittu return to Loftus Road on Saturday with the fate of their current club Millwall hanging in the balance.

Queens Park Rangers (4th) v Millwall (20th)

Old First Division, Old Old Second Division >>> Saturday April 26, 2014 >>> Kick Off 15.00 >>> Loftus Road, London, W12

Well, it could certainly be worse. A glance down to the School End of the ground at any point of Saturday afternoon may not inspire much by way of sympathy in the average QPR fan, as our beloved visitors from Bermondsey no doubt do their very best to live up to their well-deserved reputation. But we’ve certainly been there before, totting up points and pointing our permutations, relying on other results to maintain a league status. It’s certainly no fun.

In the penultimate match of last season Wolves, freshly relegated from the Premier League, lost 2-1 at home to Burnley. It was a fourth defeat in five matches and it took their fate at the bottom of the Championship out of their hands. Another loss on the final day saw them drop straight through the second tier into the third.

Given the state QPR were in at the end of last season, with just four wins to their name and a dressing room that former Rangers hero Jamie Mackie recently described as “one of the worst places I've been in terms of attitude and desire to win football matches”, many, this website included, feared the possibility of QPR following suit.

The bookies always make the relegated teams favourites to go back up straight away but, as Harry Redknapp has rarely shied away from telling us this season, it’s only happened automatically eight times in the Premier League era. A relegated team needs to have its high earners stripped away, new players added capable of competing at the lower level, confidence restored and ethos changed — and you now only have one summer transfer window to do it. It’s only the extreme amounts of money that Premier League teams now bring down with them when they come that means Wolves will probably remain the exception rather than becoming the rule.

Which reflects rather well on QPR’s current manager Harry Redknapp, much maligned in some quarters for the style of football this season and the amount of money spent for the points return which has only been good enough for fourth, but worthy of praise for halting the decline.

Marc Bircham told the QPR Podcast this week: “Harry has done a better job than I thought he would. The squad was in that bad a state when we went down with players who didn’t want to play and so many non-winners I thought it would be so hard to get them out and get another group in and Harry has done excellently. If you’d said to me at the end of last season we’d have been in the play offs I’d have bitten your hand off knowing what we had at the club.”

All Redknapp seems concerned with now is getting as many of his key players either rested or match fit in time for three matches at the end of the season which will determine whether the campaign is a success or not. I’ve been reminded, since Christmas, of Sam Allardyce’s West Ham team which won the play off in this league two seasons ago — they struggled at home, in front of their own fans, who were highly critical of the style of play and the results, but somehow cobbled together enough points to make the top six and then won through with a workmanlike display at Wembley.

Bircham, of course, is now in the opposite dugout assisting former QPR favourite Ian Holloway at Millwall. Although the matchday experience at The Den, and the behaviour of the larger than usual minority when the Lions come to Loftus Road, means most QPR fans would gladly be shot of them if possible, most W12 regulars will be wishing Olly and Bircham, as well as captain Danny Shittu, all the best.

I’ll certainly be watching Millwall’s results this week with interest, and what happens during the summer. Ian Holloway hasn’t carried himself with quite the same enthusiasm and joy for the game he clearly had while with Bristol Rovers, QPR and Plymouth. He’s looked drawn and rather fed up with it all at times, after failing to keep Blackpool in the Premier League and then struggling badly with Crystal Palace earlier this season. His fate at the end of the season, regardless of the outcome for Millwall, will be worth keeping an eye on.

If Millwall are relegated, it won’t have escaped anybody’s attention that the manager they had for six years until he resigned 12 months ago, Kenny Jackett, was the man hired to right the listing ship at Molineux and promote Wolves back to the second tier at the first attempt. Very successfully too as it turned out. With two games to go there remains a distinct possibility that his old club may pass him coming the other way.

Links >>> History >>> Opposition Profile >>> Betting >>> Referee >>> Podcast

Les Ferdinand battles Damien Webber in an FA Cup fifth round tie between QPR and Millwall from 1995. The R’s won 1-0 with a Clive Wilson penalty in the final minute after Webber inexplicably handled Andy Impey’s cross. Ray Wilkins’ side subsequently lost 2-0 at Manchester United in the quarter final.

Saturday

Team News: Roll out the bunting and notify the police of your plans for street parties as Benoit Assou-Ekotto returns from a one match suspension for his mindlessly stupid sending off at Leicester last Saturday. The long term absentees are Ale Faurlin and Matt Phillips but Andy Johnson played and scored for the Under 21s during the week so in theory should be available. Harry Redknapp is clearly trying to give everybody game time while also keeping them fit for the play offs, so guessing the starting 11 is difficult. Charlie Austin, scorer of a fine winner against Watford on Monday, is prime concern number one so don’t be surprised to see him wrapped in cotton wool for one or both of the final two matches.

Millwall are without former Yeovil midfielder Ed Upson with a knee injury and former Ipswich and Palace man Owen Garvan is to be assessed late after missing the draw with Doncaster on Monday. Richard Chaplow has recovered from his ankle injury and is pushing for a start.

Elsewhere: A moment of silence please to mourn the passing of Yeovil Town, who were promoted last season against all the odds, postponing the inevitable QPR defeat at Brentford by 12 months at least, and accommodated us so wonderfully down at Huish Park back in September. Sadly relegated this evening after a 2-0 defeat at Brighton which, in turn, moves Albion into the play off places ahead of Reading.

That means it’s do or die for Ipswich at Burnley on Saturday — the Tractor Boys are five points behind Brighton with two to play so need a win at the already promoted Clarets to take their play-off hopes into the final week of the season. Blackburn can, technically, still get to sixth as well but need maximum points from their final two matches starting at Charlton on Saturday.

Nottingham Trees, four points behind, go to Bournemouth, while Reading, two points shy, are at Doncaster. The Globetrotters can still be caught by Reading, Forest and Ipswich but will be safe in the six with a home win against a Blackpool side that seems absolutely determined to relegate itself.

Pool are in the drop zone, separated from fourth bottom Birmingham on goal difference and needing a point or more from somewhere. Birmingham have Leeds at home this weekend which would be a gimme for most teams given the Champions of Europe’s run of ten defeats and two draws from 15 matches but Birmingham haven’t won a league game at St Andrew’s in 17 attempts so who knows who wants to lose that one more.

Barnsley need two wins from their final two matches, starting at Middlesbrough. They’d be down with a defeat, and all but relegated with a draw. Charlton are eighteenth but only two points clear of third bottom so they need points to be guaranteed of safety and welcome Blackburn to The Valley and its wide open sandy beaches.

Derby v Udinese, Huddersfield v Leicester and Sheff Wed v Champions Elect Bolton haven’t been mentioned yet but probably should be in the interests of thoroughness.

Referee: No surprise to find a Premier League referee on secondment for this crunch London derby — Kevin Friend gets the gig. Friend had a reputation as a home orientated referee in his early career and screwed Rangers over one or two times on the road but judging by the reaction to his appointment on the Millwall forums his presence is of more concern to them than Rangers. He refereed QPR three times in the top flight last season, including the dire 0-0 draw at Reading that relegated both clubs. For his ever expanding QPR case history please click here.

Form

QPR: Rangers’ form is dividing neatly between home and away as the season comes to a close — the R’s have won four and drawn two of their last six games at Loftus Road but lost seven of their last nine on the road including five of the last six. Only Brighton have kept more clean sheets than QPR’s 17 this season but they are without a shutout in the last six outings. Five of the last seven meetings with Millwall have finished in draws, with one win apiece in the remaining two fixtures.

Millwall: When Birmingham City won 3-2 at The Den in on March 25 Millwall looked dead and buried. They’d won just two of their previous 20 games and were firmly ensconced in the bottom three. A 2-2 draw at home to Blackburn that Saturday didn’t seem to help greatly but Wall are now unbeaten in six, winning three, and have climbed to fifth bottom, a point clear of the drop zone with two games left to play. In theory a trip to fourth placed QPR is a write off with a home game against Bournemouth to come, but Millwall have won their last three away games at Middlesbrough, Wigan and Forest but haven’t won at The Den in nine matches. Wall have conceded 73 goals this season, more than any other team in the league.

Betting: Resident LFW betting pundit Andy Hillman tells us…

So I looked at the obvious markets for my QPR bet — QPR to win at Evens, Austin to score anytime at not much better than that, both teams to score, all the usual gubbins, and then I decided to go a little crazy — a little Al Pacino shouty-loud crazy (best six minutes ever by the way...) and plumped for this 10/1 beauty — QPR to win from behind. QPR struggle to get going at the best of times, and sort of amble around directionless, confused as to whom is actually playing in which position until half time. Millwall, on a good run, and with Shittu, Holloway and Bircham returning to the Loft could easily capitalise on the disarray and score first, before we sort our lives out around the 70 minute mark as per usual. 10/1 on that happening is humongous odds.

Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion Mase says…

“My reign as Prediction League champion is almost at an end and, like David Moyes, I have found the going pretty tough this season. After making 50 broadly erroneous predictions (including cup games etc) we come to the final home game of the regulation campaign, and a visit from our friends from Bermondsey. With the cross-fertilization of Millwall's playing and coaching staff, old acquaintances will be renewed, and it is the visitors who need the result more. Much more. Predicting how Rangers will do at this stage of the season is difficult because our season is effectively suspended until the playoffs start, and I can see Redknapp taking the chance to rest a few important players in what is usually quite a fraught atmosphere.

“That said, Millwall didn't get where they are in the league by being good (or effective) so don't expect them to walk all over us. I think a draw is most likely and will satisfy the sides in the circumstances.”

Mase’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Millwall. Scorer: Ravel Morrison (if he's risked).

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Millwall. Scorer: Ravel Morrison

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TacticalR added 21:37 - Apr 27 Thanks for your round-up, and well done to LFW and Mase for the correct prediction for the Millwall match.
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