Sometimes football fans have an epiphany when everything becomes clear. One example is when Blackburn Rovers equalised against Blackpool in the dying minutes of the game at Ewood Park in the Premier League when I knew at that moment we'd be relegated. For many, they'll claim they're some way off their moment of enlightenment this season but for others they've already seen what's to come.

If we weren't Blackpool fans we'd look at a team 10 points adrift at the bottom of the table and say 'they're goners'. However, despite only having 8 points from 17 games on the board, there is still that belief that a minor (well OK major) miracle will happen and Blackpool will somehow get enough points to stay up this season. On a thread on the subject, it was pointed out that we only got 12 points in the second half of last season and still stayed up. However, that is the indicator to where we are - a team that hasn't improved and shows no signs of going on that run that we're all hoping for. Only a run of consecutive victories - three a minimum but ideally more - would change most fans thoughts on where we are.

Straightatthewall writes: [i]Going back over the past 10 seasons, the average number of points needed to stay up is 47. There's been a big range between the seasons though; some years you needed a lot (55), others you needed a lot less (41). In simple terms that's 4 more wins..... Take out those 2 extremes....and you still need 47 points.

If you take anyone from Wednesday down - as they're all in the mix - then the average points per game for all those teams is 1.07. Put that over a 46 game season and you get 49 points. But as there's 5 points between Wigan and Wednesday, it's probably fair to say that we're back towards the 47 point mark again.

SO. If we say we need 47 points, that means 39 points needed from the next 28 games, which is 1.39 points per game. Which is 64 points over a season form. Which is good solid, top ten/top half form.

We are working on 0.44 points per game this season. But that seems an unfair thing to look at given the extremes we've been through. So if we look at us over this season AND last then it gives us 0.84. Both of which are relegation form and more likely than not, bottom of the table form.

Lee Clark has to turn us from being bottom of the league to top half of the league. He has to do that initially with a group of players that has won 1 game all season, whilst adding players who have not played at all during the season. Then come January, he needs to go out and bring in enough ready to play talent, to transform us from what we are to what we need to be. All with the support of a chairman who we all (I think) agree is notoriously difficult to extract money from.

This is not Hollywood. It's real life. I love my club. When I go to games, I'll sing and chant and support the players as much as I can. But there isn't a chance in hell that we will stay up this season. Every bit of data and every ounce of common sense backs that up. [/i]

And that's where we are. Unless we get to one point per game we look destined to lose our place in the top two divisions of the league. We would need to win each of the next 5 games and then we'd be on 23 points from 23 games and even then we'd be behind the average needed to stay up. So, for the meantime, any win whilst welcome, is merely plugging the holes.

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