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12th Happy League - The results so far. 18:26 - Dec 21 with 328 viewsmfb_cufc

With the conclusion of Week 19, we have now reached the halfway stage of the season, and I thought it would be interesting to see how the results have panned out so far. There have been 138 games played, and this is the breakdown of those games:

1-1....23 (16.66%) No real surprise to find the popular 1-1 come out on top, and
1-0....22 (15.94%) amazingly along with 1-0, they come out as 6/1 shots, roughly
0-1....12 (8.70%) in line with the bookmakers odds for these results.
1-2....10 (7.25%)
2-0.....9 (6.52%)
2-1.....8 (5.80%) A bit of a surprise here, with the same chance of a game finish-
3-1.....8 (5.80%) ing 3-1 or 1-3, as the popular 2-1.
1-3.....8 (5.80%)
0-0.....7 (5.07%) Would expect more of these. Bookies wouldn't give you 20/1.
3-2.....6 (4.35%)
2-2.....5 (3.62%)
3-0.....5 (3.62%)
0-3.....4 (2.90%)
0-2.....2 (1.45%) This has to be the biggest surprise, and they were both at the
4-2.....1 (0.72%) start of the season. I expect more from now on.
4-1.....1 (0.72%)
1-4.....1 (0.72%)
0-4.....1 (0.72%)
1-5.....1 (0.72%)
5-2.....1 (0.72%)
0-6.....1 (0.72%)
1-6.....1 (0.72%)
7-0.....1 (0.72%)

mfb

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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 17:26 - Dec 22 with 294 viewsmrhappy

amazing info.

MR HAPPY SAYS BE HAPPY - LIFE IS SHORT - MAKE IT COUNT ! GOD BLESS YOU !
Poll: Derby County - how the mighty have fallen - Rooney the Gooney

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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 18:30 - Dec 22 with 285 viewsBarsidepete

12th Happy League - The results so far. on 17:26 - Dec 22 by mrhappy

amazing info.


Indeed. Thanks, Mick:)

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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 19:06 - Dec 22 with 278 viewsTheNet

Good stuff - although I think as highlighted in a previous stats analysis - the lack of 2 - 1's / the non-standardness of outcomes lies in the fact that there are only 6 (or 10) fixtures chosen and more often than not they are ones that appear "interesting".....

....as said fascinating info - thanks; I wonder how many of us will now change their future predictions having considered this!?!
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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 21:57 - Dec 23 with 247 viewswessex_exile

12th Happy League - The results so far. on 19:06 - Dec 22 by TheNet

Good stuff - although I think as highlighted in a previous stats analysis - the lack of 2 - 1's / the non-standardness of outcomes lies in the fact that there are only 6 (or 10) fixtures chosen and more often than not they are ones that appear "interesting".....

....as said fascinating info - thanks; I wonder how many of us will now change their future predictions having considered this!?!


Ha, all I know is I've hit the highest total of outcomes and am still flirting with relegation - does MFB's analysis demonstrate a trend, or a statistical blip? Definitely fascinating work though MFB - thanks.

Up the U's
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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 00:41 - Dec 24 with 240 viewsmfb_cufc

12th Happy League - The results so far. on 21:57 - Dec 23 by wessex_exile

Ha, all I know is I've hit the highest total of outcomes and am still flirting with relegation - does MFB's analysis demonstrate a trend, or a statistical blip? Definitely fascinating work though MFB - thanks.


To answer your question Andy, I think 1-1 and 1-0 will continue to lead the way, when the latter part of the season is all about results. But I am sure 2-1 is a statistical blip, and expect more than 8 in the second half of the season. The thing with statistics is whatever has happened in the past, won't necessarily happen in future.

Another thing I find interesting about the analysis, is that even though the one all draw comes out top, if you had predicted this score for every game you would only have 81 points by now. By backing the under performing 2-1, you would have 78 points. Only 3 points difference even though there has been 15 more 1-1's. This is one of the reasons I never back a game to end in a draw. If you had backed every game to end 1-0 you would have 106 points by now.

mfb

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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 07:22 - Dec 24 with 237 viewswessex_exile

12th Happy League - The results so far. on 00:41 - Dec 24 by mfb_cufc

To answer your question Andy, I think 1-1 and 1-0 will continue to lead the way, when the latter part of the season is all about results. But I am sure 2-1 is a statistical blip, and expect more than 8 in the second half of the season. The thing with statistics is whatever has happened in the past, won't necessarily happen in future.

Another thing I find interesting about the analysis, is that even though the one all draw comes out top, if you had predicted this score for every game you would only have 81 points by now. By backing the under performing 2-1, you would have 78 points. Only 3 points difference even though there has been 15 more 1-1's. This is one of the reasons I never back a game to end in a draw. If you had backed every game to end 1-0 you would have 106 points by now.


Of course, the other key variable that needs to be factored in is match selection. I would suggest, and I obviously don't have any empirical evidence to back this up, that there is a tendency amongst match selectors (myself included) to lean towards the harder to predict lower placed team at home to higher placed team games - which I guess is what RS was alluding to the other week? In that context, maybe the preponderance of 1-1's (home advantage balanced out by superior skill) isn't so surprising after all?

Incidentally, just in case I'm away for the rest of the season, put me down for 1-0's please...all of them...

Up the U's
Poll: How will we do in 2016/17
Blog: Knees-up Mother Brown #23

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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 18:38 - Dec 24 with 227 viewsmfb_cufc

12th Happy League - The results so far. on 07:22 - Dec 24 by wessex_exile

Of course, the other key variable that needs to be factored in is match selection. I would suggest, and I obviously don't have any empirical evidence to back this up, that there is a tendency amongst match selectors (myself included) to lean towards the harder to predict lower placed team at home to higher placed team games - which I guess is what RS was alluding to the other week? In that context, maybe the preponderance of 1-1's (home advantage balanced out by superior skill) isn't so surprising after all?

Incidentally, just in case I'm away for the rest of the season, put me down for 1-0's please...all of them...


Yes, you are right there Andy, most games selected do have the look of a 1-1. Of course they won't all end 1-1, and that is where the problem lies, which ones do you select to end this way. Even though 1-1 comes out top, they tend to come in batches, and there have been seven weeks without one. Another reason why I won't pick draws is if you go for 1-1, there is only 0-0 and 2-2 as back up to get 1 point.

It might be boring, but you can go for 1-0 every game if you want to, anyway. You could have a problem there though, because I hear Pete will be putting in a big bid for it, when the transfer window opens.
[Post edited 24 Dec 2014 22:13]

mfb

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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 19:49 - Dec 24 with 225 viewsBarsidepete

12th Happy League - The results so far. on 18:38 - Dec 24 by mfb_cufc

Yes, you are right there Andy, most games selected do have the look of a 1-1. Of course they won't all end 1-1, and that is where the problem lies, which ones do you select to end this way. Even though 1-1 comes out top, they tend to come in batches, and there have been seven weeks without one. Another reason why I won't pick draws is if you go for 1-1, there is only 0-0 and 2-2 as back up to get 1 point.

It might be boring, but you can go for 1-0 every game if you want to, anyway. You could have a problem there though, because I hear Pete will be putting in a big bid for it, when the transfer window opens.
[Post edited 24 Dec 2014 22:13]


Haha I love this thread:D .. Indeed, we have backers that will add to our back 4, um, 4-5-1:p .. IowaFC has serious money to spend on 1-0's

Poll: In Daniel's PL, Sector4 is top, I'm 2nd or 3rd depending on the update

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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 21:20 - Dec 24 with 220 viewsmrhappy

anyone not doing draws will never win the PREM again....and doesn't deserve to....lol.

MR HAPPY SAYS BE HAPPY - LIFE IS SHORT - MAKE IT COUNT ! GOD BLESS YOU !
Poll: Derby County - how the mighty have fallen - Rooney the Gooney

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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 22:33 - Dec 24 with 209 viewsmfb_cufc

12th Happy League - The results so far. on 21:20 - Dec 24 by mrhappy

anyone not doing draws will never win the PREM again....and doesn't deserve to....lol.


At least someone not doing draws has won the Prem twice. If you want to remain top, please note.

mfb

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12th Happy League - The results so far. on 23:09 - Dec 24 with 207 viewsmrhappy

Good point but i plan to break the trend- to dare is to do.

MR HAPPY SAYS BE HAPPY - LIFE IS SHORT - MAKE IT COUNT ! GOD BLESS YOU !
Poll: Derby County - how the mighty have fallen - Rooney the Gooney

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