| Colchester United "too dependent on youth"....dispelling the myth 18:00 - Sep 30 with 1003 views | noah4x4 |
Some fans have over the last few days made much "told you so" capital from the fact that only one or two young/academy products made the starting line up in the last five games in which we have enjoyed success.
Their suggestion is that Robbie Cowling and Tony Humes have been too focused on youth as regards the First XI. I want to challenge that anecdotal assumption by considering some tangible selection data for last season. Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_Colchester_United_F.C._season
46 league games with 11 selected players obviously means a total of 506 possible Division One ‘starts’. So how many First Team ‘starts’ were actually occupied by our young (under 21) or Academy players?
As can be seen from the web article; under Financial Fair Play we had a defined (senior) First Team Squad of 18 players. This definition is important as regards the player budget cap and similar. Note that merely 3 were under 21 (Olefumi; Wright; Szmodics) and between them they accumulated merely 18 League One ‘starts’ of which 17 were attributable to Sammy Szmodics, a fans favourite!
We then had an under 21 Squad of 15 lads (see article) that between them made 28 First XI ‘starts’. But Lapslie made 11 and the rest just one or at most two. So other than Szmodics and Lapsie; NO youngster in 2014-15 actually made a significant number of 'starts'. People forget that relatively young players like Gavin Massey (39 'starts') and Tom Eastman (46) are now quite 'senior'.
So in 2014-15, our youngsters (aged U21) hence made merely 46 league one ‘starts’ in a 506 total; which is 9%. But having had ONLY one youngster in our starting line-up for the last five games it’s exactly the same 9% average ratio of youth to experience in our current starting line —up! So what has really changed to improve our fortunes? I reckon it is nothing to do with youth versus experience policy. We also didn't start this season with more than one Academy product (Gilbey) in the First XI.
What I think is far more significant is that 43 (many average) players featured in 2014-15. The vast majority being senior players that between them had very many more starts than our youngsters; including very experienced loanees like Khumalo; Gorkss & Hewitt. Now let's consider some of the ‘experience’ that has since departed and their MANY 2014-15 ‘starts’;
31 Sean Clohessey (surely we all agree that KVY or Tosin are better players?)
16 Ben Gordon (similar surely Briggs; Brindley; KVY or Tosin?)
6 Craig Eastmond (surely Edwards is considered better?)
10 Khumalo/Gorkss (we instead have big George/Kent back)
29 Freddie Sears (doesn't Sordell add a different dimension?)
29 David Fox (Good player; but would we want him back instead of Garvan?)
17 Sanchez Watt (Harriott on loan)
Add the skill and quality of their replacements to the existing talents of Massey; Moncur and others and Bingo!
Talk of too much past dependence on youth is hence utter cobblers based on this (9%) evidence. What has actually happened is that those experienced senior players above that have since departed have been replace by new players of a much higher quality/skill; and this was achieved at the first true transfer window opportunity (remember Humes was only briefly in charge before the January window). This is now Humes own squad.
Now let's add that we have a squad of about 22 players of which ANY could feature in a first team. Credit Bill Shankly for the quote; but I reckon there are now only "TWO teams in Essex". Colchester United and Colchester United Under 21s!
[Post edited 30 Sep 2015 18:18]
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| Colchester United "too dependent on youth"....dispelling the myth on 21:13 - Sep 30 with 966 views | wessex_exile |
Whilst I cannot fault the analysis, or the conclusion, this is the one that stands out:
10 Khumalo/Gorkss (we instead have big George/Kent back)
No disrespect to George or Kent, who are extremely capable and welcome members of the squad, but I'd take those two back in an instant if it were an option. |  |
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| Colchester United on 21:23 - Sep 30 with 962 views | noah4x4 |
| Colchester United "too dependent on youth"....dispelling the myth on 21:13 - Sep 30 by wessex_exile |
Whilst I cannot fault the analysis, or the conclusion, this is the one that stands out:
10 Khumalo/Gorkss (we instead have big George/Kent back)
No disrespect to George or Kent, who are extremely capable and welcome members of the squad, but I'd take those two back in an instant if it were an option. |
Me too Wessex!
I was just illustrating that the ratio of youth to experince has never been as overly focused on Youth as some suggest and that the improved results of late are a response to changing senior personnel and not by changing youngsters. Those kids that have broken through, KVY, Tosin, Gilbey; Szmodics have all made a most valuable contribution.
Key to this debate is also that we can only invest in senior players during a transfer window so Humes has had little opportunity to change the squad before recently. What changes he has made are excellent. [Post edited 30 Sep 2015 21:35]
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| Colchester United "too dependent on youth"....dispelling the myth on 21:28 - Sep 30 with 960 views | wessex_exile |
| Colchester United on 21:23 - Sep 30 by noah4x4 |
Me too Wessex!
I was just illustrating that the ratio of youth to experince has never been as overly focused on Youth as some suggest and that the improved results of late are a response to changing senior personnel and not by changing youngsters. Those kids that have broken through, KVY, Tosin, Gilbey; Szmodics have all made a most valuable contribution.
Key to this debate is also that we can only invest in senior players during a transfer window so Humes has had little opportunity to change the squad before recently. What changes he has made are excellent. [Post edited 30 Sep 2015 21:35]
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Hahaha - did you drift into your native tongue at the end there Noah :-)
(you're right though!) | |
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| Colchester United "too dependent on youth"....dispelling the myth on 10:12 - Oct 1 with 919 views | noah4x4 |
| Colchester United "too dependent on youth"....dispelling the myth on 21:28 - Sep 30 by wessex_exile |
Hahaha - did you drift into your native tongue at the end there Noah :-)
(you're right though!) |
Yeh Wessex, pressed the 'add reply' button as me glasses fell off. Spelling now corrected. But should also add a further data observation for the statistical purists;
What I have not considered above is the (few) U21 loanees that we had in 2014-15. But only Jacob Murphy (11) and Rhys Healey (7) made any notable number of 'starts'. Even so, this only makes a modest percentage change to the youth to experienced ratio; but who wouldn't welcome back fans favourite Jacob Murphy as a permanent signing should we fail to hang on to current loanee star winger Harriott? The fact is that in league games we were never as "overly dependent on youth" as some fans perceive. It's just a false excuse used by some to have a moan at Cowling and Humes when times were tough. The real reason we were crap was our past senior squad wasn't good enough to play our current exciting entertaining fast paced passing style.
What the additional data (see web article) relating to players no longer with the club also clearly highlights is that we are not permitted to buy in 'experience' between transfer windows (unless on an emergency loan basis) so we did have to turn to youth in the context of back up for (say) injured players etc. But Murphy; Healey; Kpekawa; Osborne; Roofe (et al) were NOT home grown. Nor of course were loanee seniors Khumalo (10); Gorkss (7) that plugged our centreback crisis (or Packwood that didnt!). So claims that investment in the Academy was adversly impacting on the senior team are irrelevant. Under FFP, Cowling could NOT invest in seniors; nor Humes make any squad changes until the Summer transfer window.
Another key observation; I mentioned earlier that we used a staggering 43 players in 2014-15. Now note that of the total 506 'starts' an amazing 117 appearances are attributable to players no longer with the club (23%). Looking down that list I omitted to previously mention Marcus Bean (3); Will Packwood (1); these are, of course, to be added to the likes of David Fox (29) Sears (24); Ibrehe (5); Clohessy (31); Magnus (8); Watt (17) and others.
In summary; based on 'starts'; Tony Humes has dispensed with the services of a quarter of our PAST 'seniors' and replaced them with better quality experience players. Yes, some (like Ibrehe and Clohessy) made a song and dance about their departure but now that we have the likes of Sordell, Harriott; Massey etc are we really missing Jabo? Now count the 'start' changes since the Blackpool game on the opening day of the season. I think it crazy that the transfer window overlaps the season's start as it means that small clubs like Colchester can't do affordable business until its end. So is it any wonder that August was a little rocky and it was after 1st September before we saw a different team sheet?
I hope that based on this statistical evidence ALL fans will now acknowledge that Humes and Cowling have brought massive positive change to this club and to its SENIOR playing personnel. But will the "Humes Out" brigade eat some humble pie? I doubt it. | | | |
| Colchester United "too dependent on youth"....dispelling the myth on 13:42 - Oct 1 with 906 views | burnsieespana |
What a great analysis of the club over the last year or so noah.
When Humes was appointed I said on here that I was far more excited than when Dunne became Manager so likewise I hope the anti Humes brigade stop moaning.
In retrospect the sale of Sears was, I feel, a good move as it freed up cash and gave this seasons budget a boost.
Whilst I think a shot at the top six is a season to early we never know! |  | | |
| Colchester United on 16:16 - Oct 1 with 893 views | noah4x4 |
| Colchester United "too dependent on youth"....dispelling the myth on 13:42 - Oct 1 by burnsieespana |
What a great analysis of the club over the last year or so noah.
When Humes was appointed I said on here that I was far more excited than when Dunne became Manager so likewise I hope the anti Humes brigade stop moaning.
In retrospect the sale of Sears was, I feel, a good move as it freed up cash and gave this seasons budget a boost.
Whilst I think a shot at the top six is a season to early we never know! |
Thanks Burnsie. I too felt that the sale of Sears was a good one, provided that we used the money to get a quality replacement. We did in Chris Porter; 23 appearances; 7 goals; and we stayed up.
Frankly, I attribute Porters injury and that of Sam Walker as THE key factors why we struggled to get any wins in August; but at least we remained unbeaten at home (here I would agree with others that Parish isn't our best keeping option!). Everybody agreed we urgently needed a striker; and (IMHO) Humes has got us TWO of the right calibre at the earliest realistic opportunity given that we don't have £500k to fork out on our low crowds.
As I have already said, I think the Summer transfer/loan window should close BEFORE a season starts; because it currently means that smaller clubs like Colchester can't do 'affordable business' until towards the end of August (and perhaps six games) when the bargains are around. Then it takes a top quality manager/scout to find players still available of the calibre of Sordell; Harriott; Garvan; Jones etc. It also requires such players to be confident in the manager and our style of play; and notably for other clubs like Charlton and Preston to trust our management with the players we loan. The latter has always been a key reason why I back Humes/Colwing. We have never had a problem getting hold of loanees; albeit that some were awesome (Murphy) and others poor (Packwood) and we went through bucket load of one game wonders (like Kepkawa; Osborne; Roofe) to find quality (like Hewitt; Gorkss, Khumalo).
I recall Robbie Cowling commenting a couple of months after Humes was appointed that our problem was that although the Under 13s to Under 21s were confidently playing the positive exciting attacking style of play that we are witnessing today it was the SENIOR players in the first XI that were struggling to adapt. I think Cowling has been wholly vindicated and those that perhaps misinterpreted this particular comment as a "flight to youth" were mistaken. My analysis of 'starts' clearly shows that we were no more dependent in 2014-15 on home grown academy players than we have been in our magnificent September 2015; or for that matter over our longer current sequence of ten consecutive home games undefeated etc. It was the senior players that had to be changed.
What has happened is that Tony (and Robbie) have progressively replaced a large number of middle of the road players that have mainly since dropped into Division Two or Conference (some into oblivion!) with high calibre players of Premier League pedigree that are hence accustomed to this superior system. I think it says everything when we see that Craig Eastmond is at Sutton United; Dominic Vose at Wrexham and Sanchez Watt at Kerala Blasters in India; yet still many U's fans were expressing dispair before Garvan had even kicked a ball just because he was ex-Ipswich. What nonsense! Time to get behind the team and Humes! [Post edited 1 Oct 2015 16:26]
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