| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View 13:26 - Apr 13 with 865 views | noah4x4 |
It was a delight to sit between Wessex and Pops at the appropriately named Lame-X Stadium; where a limping Stevenage finished with merely x players after an X-rated show of temper by Morais. We won ii — iii and Chris Giftus Goalum Day had one of his more shocking
Hence; in this coliseum of terminal doom for one of these teams of combatants, three (below) average ‘tenors’ sat together. We did help ensure that the left flank of the (official count) 511 faithful sang loudly in (dis)harmony with the right side boy-band choir along with a very respectable amount of female vocals too. After mutually celebrating our third goal in one voice, the right side’s “Southend on a Tuesday Night” was echoed by our even more stinging left wing (let’s respect the little guy) response “Braintree on Saturdee”. A great effort all round, and a final ‘thumbs down’ for the fallen (or was that a single or dual finger from some that we saw?).
I don’t think I can add to Wessex’s super summary posted elsewhere except by looking at the ramifications of events around us. Our goal difference looks even more significant this morning after Shrewsbury fell to Tranmere. Whatever points the U’s ultimately finish with, others must now finish with one extra point to overtake us (unless they can also get ahead of the U’s growing superior GD). Remember that the U’s only have to outrun four of the six teams below us; but what about the plight of those above? Some very interesting new possibilities now come into play!
Even if the U’s DON’T get another point from our 4 remaining games (and hence we stay on merely 46 points), Notts County and Crewe now need 4 + points to get to 47 to overtake us; whilst Shrewsbury now need 6 + and Stevenage 8 + from merely four games.
If the U’s did stagnate (e.g. stay on 46), for Carlisle it is 4 + points from five games, but they still have to play Walsall, Peterborough (a), Oldham, Crawley (a), Wolves (a); so it is hard to see them picking up too many points, notably after their confidence was broken by yesterday’s 6-1 thrashing at Preston.
It is obviously mathematically feasible for ANY of these five teams to get the (4 — 8) points that they need to overtake the U’s if we have ALREADY reached our peak points, but it is ever less likely that more than two actually might; notably because Crewe and Shrewsbury must play each other on Good Friday (so one must drop 3 or both drop 2 points). Three teams below us are probably already (statistically) doomed, but with two still active on our tail, whilst we remain on 46 points we are certainly NOT yet safe, but now very much in the driving seat.
But if the U’s take just ONE more point from our remaining four games (e.g. 47); then our GD means that others must attain a total of 48. One further U’s DRAW is a huge game changer for others as the target to get ahead of the U’s for five teams will then become AT LEAST five points (e.g. 4 + our GD). But one can’t get five points from two fixtures unless by two wins. Hence to overtake us, FOUR of these teams would then need AT LEAST ‘two wins from four games’ (= 6 points not five) or ‘one win and two draws from four’ (hence five points); whilst Carlisle would be seeking the same from five games (and look at their challenging run-in).
So with only 47 points (e.g. just one more U’s draw) it is obviously still mathematically possible for the U’s to go down; but it’s significantly more unlikely when compared to 46 (e.g. due to this ‘five point’ mathematical factor). We can also doom Crewe if they don’t defeat us on Easter Monday. Strangely, if the U’s take TWO points from four games (= 48 total); it doesn’t actually make a huge amount of difference other than putting even more focus on the need for three of these teams to get a minimum of two wins. If the U’s get ONE WIN from our four fixtures (49) we should comfortably be safe unless the most bizarre set of other results conspire against us.
I have not yet mentioned in earlier threads how Oldham or Gillingham could be sucked into the mire; which would happen if the U’s now beat Oldham on Good Friday and if Tranmere beat Gillingham that same day (n.b. again note that one of Tranmere or Gillingham must helpfully drop 3 points or both must drop 2); so none of these three are technically safe on (today’s) 46, 47 or 48 points respectively.
If the U’s did get to the desirable 49 points by beating Oldham and the Gills lose against Tranmere (all on Friday); the U’s will leap to 16th and safety as there would then be EIGHT teams below us. Gillingham then have to play both Walsall and Preston away (probably no joy for them there); and then they must possibly take something from a desperate Shrewsbury on the final day. Oldham will nervously have to play (rivals) Carlisle and Notts County (also Sheffield Utd and Coventry). So if we can get a win on Friday it might be a massive blow for Oldham; whilst we can sigh with relief with three games still to play. Hence, Friday is possibly a ‘must win’ for Oldham; but the U's could afford to slip up (please don't chaps, we ideally need at least a point!) and then later do the business against Crewe (where again a point might be enough). I am also not ruling out taking something from Brentford and Walsall. Neither will have much to play for other than pride and could be in demob mood (Brentford having already been promoted by then).
I suspect that the eventual casualties may even be Stevenage, Shrewsbury, Crewe and (although not obvious from today’s table) possibly one of Oldham or Gillingham! Now isn't that a new twist!
The U's are staying up!
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| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 17:15 - Apr 14 with 787 views | burnsieespana |
Thank you for that noah! I never know how you manage such analysis but keep up the good stuff! |  | | |
| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 22:55 - Apr 14 with 769 views | noah4x4 |
| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 17:15 - Apr 14 by burnsieespana |
Thank you for that noah! I never know how you manage such analysis but keep up the good stuff! |
I recently retired from a job which required me to take complex consumer (and like) data and then make/recommend expensive marketing decisions based upon it. That professional skill and now having too much time on my hands obviously helps! By comparison, working out football data is a doddle. The hard thing is putting it down on "paper", but I am glad it is deemed of value by the "exiles".
But curiously, in this season's HGPL prediction league (where I guess I perhaps habitually spend longer than most analysing "team form"), I have hit about 12% of all correct scores (about 1 in 8) and secured 25% of total available points (including correct results). Others have mentioned that I should be off down the betting shop with this 'luck'. But I recently worked out that had I put a quid on each HGPL at the bookies just for the correct result (not score), I would have gambled about £250 and now be over £150 out of pocket (given typical betting odds). That level of 'performance' at work would have got me sacked! Perhaps shows that betting on footie is a mug's game (unless you are a bookie)! But "betting" on the Stock Market and Derivatives....now you are talking! [Post edited 14 Apr 2014 22:56]
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| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 09:29 - Apr 15 with 747 views | AFCMorant |
My ratings. I missed the Tranmere game, was in New York, but beware I'm attending the Oldham game so a nailed on defeat beckons.
Player Rating
Walker 5
Wright 3 Olufemi 6
Wynter 6
Eastman 6
Okuonghae 6
Gilbey 6
Bean 8
Massey 5
Sears 8
Ibehre 8
Watt 4 |  | | |
| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 10:02 - Apr 15 with 744 views | gerry_us |
| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 09:29 - Apr 15 by AFCMorant |
My ratings. I missed the Tranmere game, was in New York, but beware I'm attending the Oldham game so a nailed on defeat beckons.
Player Rating
Walker 5
Wright 3 Olufemi 6
Wynter 6
Eastman 6
Okuonghae 6
Gilbey 6
Bean 8
Massey 5
Sears 8
Ibehre 8
Watt 4 |
Ooooooo! Another Walker fan!  |  | | |
| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 13:26 - Apr 15 with 728 views | AFCMorant |
| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 10:02 - Apr 15 by gerry_us |
Ooooooo! Another Walker fan! |
And you say that on the basis of what? When have I ever made a comment about Walker on this or any other forum? I gave Walker that mark in this match on the basis that he didn't have a lot to do, did most of it well but it's his job to line the wall up for a free kick, which went pretty much straight down the middle of the goal. Hence it was his fault. He also hardly ever shouted at his back four and they certainly needed it. His mark is pretty much what the two centre backs got, 6 being generous. | | | |
| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 16:25 - Apr 15 with 719 views | noah4x4 |
I would have given some a mark higher, and I do think that any < 6 (below par) scores are probably a tad too harsh given that we won. But I don't disagree with this general pattern. In particular, Watt did disappoint me (as he has done since Swindon away); but maybe his 'quad' injury is still an issue.
But where I disagree is regarding the Stevenage free kick. We were (mildly and sportingly) applauding it's brilliance. The 'dummy man' sent Walker the wrong way and once back on your heels it is most difficult for a keeper to recover. The fact that it went "down the middle" isn't material other than it managed to circumvent a pretty solid 'wall' and get over/around it and down. The chance of frequently repeating that same attempt with such precision is probably slim. Stephen Gerrard has hit 45 career penalties and a surprising number go 'down the middle'. Too often I think we don't give enough praise for those that play against us. It is true that Stevenage were generally poor and we deserved 1-3 (or better), but I say 'hats off' to a superb free kick that made it 2-3; but I never felt were were in danger; even after conceding a goal against the run of play [Post edited 15 Apr 2014 16:29]
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| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 08:48 - Apr 16 with 687 views | AFCMorant |
Ah an objective view! Not the someone "disagrees with me so they must be wrong" which was the tone of the original reply, and doubly wrong in that unless the poster is a psychic he won't know what I think of Walker, which incidentally is overwhelmingly positive.
I agree with you about the dummy man after seeing the free kick again on TV, he clearly expected the right footer to take it so maybe 5 was a bit harsh but a free kick shouldn't really go almost straight down the middle . I most surprised by Watt, he looked either injured, unfit uninterested or a combination of all three. Magnus was mr calamity as usual though did make one excellent goal saving tackle in the first half. I thought a lot of them looked unfit! | | | |
| Stevenage 2 - 3 U's. Noah's View on 14:16 - Apr 16 with 676 views | burnsieespana |
Or maybe just downright tired after the last few weeks of three games every 8 days!
Let us hope we can beat Oldham and then we should be pretty safe although one more point would be a comfort, ie a total of four more to the 46 we already have! | | | |
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