| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? 15:28 - Feb 23 with 1123 views | noah4x4 |
Or an alternative title to this thread; "Noah perhaps has too much spare time on his hands - but let's be confident!".
There seems to be an obsession that 51 points is ESSENTIAL for the U’s to avoid relegation. Carl Marsden in the EADT has even suggested that we must achieve 52 points. Frankly, I doubt this, but it is true that nobody has been relegated in modern times having achieved these totals. So what is the realistic minimum? Remember that one only needs to better the goal difference of the team in 21st place by + 1. Consider the last five seasons of Division One;
2013-14; 47 points with -26 GD would have been enough to stay up.
(Last survivor Notts County did get to 50 points but didn’t need them all).
2012-13; 48 points with -23 GD would have been enough to stay up.
(Last survivor Colchester United did get to 51 points but didn’t need them all).
2011-12; 43 points with -22 GD would have been enough to stay up.
(Last survivor Orient did get to 50 points; but could have survived with FAR fewer - see later).
2010-11; 47 points with -17 GD would have been enough to stay up.
(Last survivor Walsall did get to 48 points but didn’t need them all).
2009-10; 50 points with -15 GD would have been good enough to stay up.
(Last survivor Hartlepool did get to 50 points with — 8 GD so did stay up).
Indeed, the ONLY season in modern times where 51 points was DEFINITELY required was in 2004-05. It is true that in 2005-06 Rotherham in 20th place did achieve 52 points but technically they only needed 50 with minus 14 GD.
Hence, my first observation is there is (inevitably!) always a gulf between what the last survivor achieved and what it actually needed to avoid relegation. This is especially true of season 2011-12 where Orient secured seven points clearance. It is therefore mathematically (but perhaps not statistically) wrong when considering this question to adopt the points achieved by the team in 20th place. Instead, we should look at those for the team relegated in 21st plus an improvement of +1 Goal Difference as that was the true minimum requirement to stay up.
So why do I confidently predict 48 points will be enough in 2014-15, notwithstanding that in 80% of the last five seasons 48 plus superior GD would have been sufficient?
In 2013-14 Wolves and Brentford were auto-promoted on 103 and 94 points respectively and merely 47 points and -26 GD would have avoided relegation.
Contrast that with 2005-06 when Southend and Colchester United achieved auto-promotion on merely 82 and 79 points. The fact that so few points were achieved by the top teams in that particular season must have meant that more points were secured by those below. It is therefore no surprise that in 2005-06 Rotherham in 20th place acquired 52 points to stay up (albeit that technically they did only need 50 and -14 GD). So even in years of the lowest auto-promotion numbers it is wrong to say that 51 or 52 was essential.
What we have witnessed in the decade since the U’s were promoted is that the gulf between the typical points being achieved by the top teams and the average of the teams in each slice below (e.g. upper middle; lower middle; bottom) is growing, probably due to the impact of Financial Fair Play.
In 2013-14 THREE teams failed to win auto-promotion despite achieving more points than the U’s required in 2005-06. That means that FIVE teams achieved more points than the U's achieved in 2005-06. A crude calculation suggests that must inevitably mean that (say) five teams at the bottom therefore had a lower average. Last season, the minimum figure to avoid relegation was 47 points (-26 GD) albeit that Notts County did get a few more.
In 2012-13 only TWO teams exceeded the U’s auto-promotion total. It is therefore no surprise that the break point for survival/relegation was marginally higher at 48 (as more points were taken by those below because fewer had gone to those above).
In 2011-12; once again THREE teams failed to get automatic promotion despite accumulating more points than the U’s required (e.g. 79) for our earlier automatic promotion. Yet again, that drove the break point for survival/relegation lower. However, because the middle pack also achieved bumper points because the bottom four were so poor (all finishing below 44 points) Orient escaped in 20th place with a remarkable seven point clearance. Remarkably, the O’s only needed 43 with superior GD, but achieved 50!
This current season whilst nobody looks like topping 100 points; at least four teams do look like exceeding the U’s (2005-06) auto-promotion figure with two hence disappointed (but are at least in the play offs). That suggests to me that once again no more than 48 points (with superior GD) is going to be the likely break point to avoid relegation (and NOT 51 or 52). We can’t ever be complacent, but it’s one fewer three point win than the pundits have predicted.
[Post edited 23 Feb 2015 15:41]
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| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 16:07 - Feb 23 with 1105 views | noah4x4 |
One further observation; Tony Humes had a disasterous November. Even so; he has averaged 1.22 points per game. Keep that up and we will get to 51 points. However, in 2015; the team has averaged 1.44 per game, despite some tough fixtures. | | | |
| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 17:12 - Feb 23 with 1093 views | wessex_exile |
To be certain of safety, we'll need one more than whoever finishes 4th from bottom :-)
...but I think 48 and a good GD might just do it. |  |
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| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 23:31 - Feb 23 with 1063 views | durham_exile |
| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 17:12 - Feb 23 by wessex_exile |
To be certain of safety, we'll need one more than whoever finishes 4th from bottom :-)
...but I think 48 and a good GD might just do it. |
Wessex I'll stick with my 51 points to be absolutely sure.
But we can still get 76 points, which would be more than enough for the play offs.
Up the U's [Post edited 23 Feb 2015 23:34]
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| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 15:48 - Feb 24 with 1032 views | burnsieespana |
Great work Noah but, have you taken into consideration that, this year, nobody, unlike previous seasons, has been dropped at the bottom so at the moment all the teams in the bottom six places today, can easily achieve 47/48 points?
We only have to look at saturday's results to see how bottom teams are more than capable of overturning current top six teams.
In my humble opinion this could have a fascinating climax to the season with even sides like Peterborough getting dragged into the mix and thus the final place above the bottom four may well need to be higher than the average of previous seasons.
I reckon we will need at least 50 to survive and this year our GD is not the best of the teams potentially relegation material. |  | | |
| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 19:11 - Feb 24 with 1019 views | noah4x4 |
| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 15:48 - Feb 24 by burnsieespana |
Great work Noah but, have you taken into consideration that, this year, nobody, unlike previous seasons, has been dropped at the bottom so at the moment all the teams in the bottom six places today, can easily achieve 47/48 points?
We only have to look at saturday's results to see how bottom teams are more than capable of overturning current top six teams.
In my humble opinion this could have a fascinating climax to the season with even sides like Peterborough getting dragged into the mix and thus the final place above the bottom four may well need to be higher than the average of previous seasons.
I reckon we will need at least 50 to survive and this year our GD is not the best of the teams potentially relegation material. |
Interesting question Burnsieespana;
When a team (or two) gets 'dropped' at the bottom with very few points; for them to have been 'cut loose' from the body/pack that must mean that teams above them have taken a greater share of the points; hence the trend is to push the average in each band (top; middle upper; middle lower etc) higher. For example; the ONLY year in modern times that 51 points was definitely required to avoid relegation was 2004-05 when Stockport County got 'cut loose' and got relegated having secured merely 26 points along with Peterborough on 39 and Wrexham on 43. Obviously, somebody enjoyed the points that they didn't get and some went to lower placed teams (note that Stockport lost 32 and drew 8!). Hence Torquay in 21st place got relegated on 51 points whilst MK Dons stayed up on the same number but with a better GD.
The current 2014-15 situation where nobody has been cut loose (as yet) enhances the prospect of a lower break point; since although it is true that ANY team in the bottom six MIGHT achieve 47/48 points I doubt if ALL can still do so mathematically. The reason is that there are many remaining fixtures between them; and every time one gets three points another will drop three (so not everybody will achieve 48). It's the famous 'six pointer'.
If one thinks about the wider mathematics, there is a finite number of points available across the league to be shared between ALL teams. The absolute number of points shared between ALL teams is hence 3 x number of scheduled fixtures. However, that is inevitably depleted by draws (whereby each draw reduces the absolute available by 1 as each team then shares 2 and not 3 points). Hence it is the incidence of draws that tends to be the most impactful variable in any season as regards the average number of points per fixture as every draw means another 1 point is lost into the ether that isn't available to anybody. In this current season the incidence of draws (compared to total fixtures) does look as if it may be a little lower than usual. That would mean that more teams than usual will take three points and more will hence take zero from games; hence driving the average achieved by successful teams up. The higher points won at the top (from more wins) must means fewer at the bottom (more losses - if fewer draws).
Combining all of these factors; I stick by my prediction that the U's can stay up on 48 points with superior goal difference. However, if we keep improving as we have done since the disaster of MK Dons away we should comfortably get to 53 or more points - and yes; I can see a team like Barnsley, Notts County (or even Posh) getting drawn into this. Take a look at the table as it stood on 1st November to see remarkable volatility! The U's have been the most consistently in 'trouble' and the last to pull out of trouble is inevitably the survivor; and we have pole position; notwithstanding others may win games in hand. [Post edited 24 Feb 2015 19:17]
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| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 17:01 - Feb 25 with 983 views | BluenWightExile |
Fascinating stuff! Improves optimism too.
Wouldn't fancy being a Rochdale supporter at the moment, nor Notts County, Posh or Oldham. There are twists and turns. We must keep adding to my 9 win requirement....we have got three already!
You see I still want 52 points!!!
Up the lower mid-table U's |  |
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| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 01:10 - Feb 28 with 956 views | RSCOSWORTH |
Maybe Leadbelly could do another poll?
I still reckon we're going to need 50 points to survive. Looking at form over the last ten games and then taking that forward over the remaining matches Notts County would go down along with Crawley, Coventry and Yeovil. Think I can live with that! |  |
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| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 00:07 - Mar 1 with 924 views | Barsidepete |
| How many points do we really need to avoid relegation? on 01:10 - Feb 28 by RSCOSWORTH |
Maybe Leadbelly could do another poll?
I still reckon we're going to need 50 points to survive. Looking at form over the last ten games and then taking that forward over the remaining matches Notts County would go down along with Crawley, Coventry and Yeovil. Think I can live with that! |
Need to win some and score beyond the boundaries.
That's the number.
Just win, baby. |  |
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