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Bill's Take: Eustace Makes Points & Forsyth Best At Back
Friday, 14th Mar 2014 08:14 by Bill Riordan

A day or two ago I was online getting some detailed data on various Rams players, when I came across some surprising factoids.

I know that regular readers of this column - both of them - will be shocked to know I look up facts; it’s shooting from the hip that gives this column its delightful unpredictability.

But here is the first of the officially promulgated shockers; Craig Forsyth is the best left back in the Championship.

In this article from http://hereisthecity.com/en-gb/2014/03/07/sp-the-rise-of-derby-defender-just-as- >“hereisthecity.com” Stephen Pickering contrasts Forsyth's rise from an unsuccessful loan spell at Bradford City to becoming one of the best full backs in the division at Derby, following the fall from grace of Leeds player Sam Byram.

It’s a short but entertaining read but where did Pickering get his information regarding Forsyth's outstanding ability?

It’s on the website “whoscored.com” where ratings are based on a unique, comprehensive statistical algorithm, calculated live during the game." These ratings have Forsyth at left back in the Championship team of the month for February and the season overall, alongside such players as Joey Barton, Danny Ings and Sam Vokes.

Forsyth's strengths are said to be aerial duels, holding on to the ball, passing, concentration and tackling.

Apparently his weakness is crossing.

I think I could get to like data.

The second surprise arrived when I decided to work out the Rams record in matches where John Eustace did not start.

After the Bolton match, the Rams record is:

P35 W18 D8 L9 F60 A43 — Pts 62

In matches where Eustace did not start, the record is:

P9 W3 D2 L4 F14 A15 — Pts 11

By simple subtraction, we can see that when Eustace starts, the record is:

P26 W15 D6 L5 F46 A28 — Pts 51

The conclusion is clear; when Eustace starts the Rams score less, concede less, win more and in turn gather more points.

It’s not close.

The conundrum for the Rams management is that Eustace is out of contract at the end of this season and he's 34 years old.

There are arguments in favour of the Rams not awarding him a new contract. The argument in favour of giving Eustace another year is simple…, wins!

The Rams need to either give Eustace another year, or find someone who looks just like him. Some of us thought that 'someone' might have been George Thorne; Thorne might have thought so too, but it appears not to be the case, not yet anyway.

The next two games are Reading away and Forest at home. These would be good games for the Rams to rediscover their scoring touch and end their rather worrying dip in form.

Eustace needs to start them both and Forsyth should concentrate on his many statistical strengths; which may not include crossing the ball.

Photo: Action Images



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