|LFW Betting Preview â QPR v Swansea|
Fri 17th Aug 2012 00:01 by LFW Pundits
Our two punters and one pro are back with us for the new season, looking for value in the sporting markets and attempting not to lose too much of the valuable LFW advertising revenue.
For those just joining us, last season was one of contrasts in the betting column. Brian Power, for the second season in a row, finished in profit with a nice Djibril Cisse goalscoring bet right at the death boosting him to £187.85 overall for the season. Andy Hillman on the other hand lost so much money that he ended up betting against QPR in large chunks out of spite and ended the season £252.82 down. Our professional odds compiler Owen Goulding would have made you £135 over the course of the season had you backed everything he suggested with a tenner.
This year, a change of format. Gone are the days when we handed our pundits a mythical £50 each week to spend as they please. Now we’re simply asking our pundits for their Nap, Longshot and a future bet for the Notebook each week – and one to avoid if they so wish. The Pro duties are being shared this year between Owen Goulding and colleague Alex Rowe who makes his LFW debut today. Welcome Alex.
So, Clive’s given me another shot at this column, after my dismal showing last year. The reason that he’s given me this chance is almost entirely because he feels slightly guilty about making me follow his sorry ass around the country at ridiculous times of the day watching QPR, but I’ll take any chance I can get. I think my second half of the year is a textbook example of what happens when you lose focus and impartiality - I got so angry at times bemoaning my lack of luck that I started making silly bets out of spite. It wasn’t big, it wasn’t clever, and it wasn’t good reading either. Hopefully the new format for this year will allow me to regain some sort of composure and logic in my betting...
NAP - League 1- Bournemouth to beat Portsmouth @ 4/6 (Ladbrokes)
Confucius said a lot of things in his time. If he was still around, he’d almost certainly say something along the lines of ‘Back whomever Portsmouth are playing, and back them large...’ Bournemouth to win at 4/6 with Ladbrokes is literally buying money. It’s the equivalent of Ladbrokes standing outside one of their shops with a roll of £20 notes, and dishing them out to all and sundry. I can’t emphasise enough just how good a bet Bournemouth to win is - Portsmouth will be fielding the equivalent of the Dog and Duck XI, and they average age of the team will be 18, with zero league games between them. Seriously, do I need to draw you a picture?
Longshot - QPR vs Swansea - Taarabt to score anytime & QPR to win @ 9/2 (Betfred)
Betting on your own team to win already Andy? It’s taken you two para’s before you’ve blown all logic out of the window. Well yes, and no. I think we all know that QPR have a bit of an Indian sign over Swansea, we’ve improved over the summer, and I feel that they are much weaker that before, my tip to finish bottom - I think that Laudrup will be an unmitigated disaster for them. Taarabt (the Ronaldo of the Blue Square according to one Swansea blogger...) loves playing against Swansea - I’ve been sending the YouTube video of Taarabt mugging off Joe Allen to every Liverpool fan I know - and he’s almost certain to start in a support striker role which should play to his strengths.
One for the Notebook - Man City to Score at least four against Southampton @ 9/4 (SkyBet)
Those of you whom follow Rodney Marsh on twitter will no doubt be aware that he recently won £2500 by backing Team GB to win at least 65 medals in the Olympics. (our 65th, and final medal was secured in the final event of the Olympics...) Rodney has put the entirety of his winnings on Man City to put four past Southampton. If it’s good enough for Rodders, it’s good enough for us, as Man City, all conquering at home, welcome a newly promoted Southampton side that will leak goals like a sieve.
Ones to avoid - Everton vs Man Utd & West Brom vs Liverpool
When Confucius wasn’t lamenting on Portsmouth’s plight, he’d probably have something to say about Everton and their woeful form before Christmas. Man Utd will also have their shiny new Rooney-RVP line up on display against Everton, which suggests an away banker. But I can’t shake the feeling that this season may be different for Everton - they’re as good and ready as I’ve seen them. I can realistically see all three results coming in for this one, so I’d recommend you steer clear. Similarly in the West Brom vs Liverpool game, Liverpool are just too short odds to back, and we have absolutely no idea whether the Rogers revolution is about to turn into a hideous car crash. All three results are possible again, it’s best avoided.
When our esteemed editor and ‘fan of the year’ dropped me a mail asking if I wanted to participate with this year’s columns I thought long and hard. After two seasons of making a profit a retirement could have been order of the day but he mentioned a new format and a cash prize at the end of the year – ok I lied about the cash prize but the new format will allow me to give a couple of tips and allow me to release my frustration in one go and so everyone is a winner except Trevor Nelson as you will read later on.
NAP - QPR to beat Swansea 11/10
A good start is required by us on Saturday as we have the tricky visit to Carrow Road followed by fixtures against three of last year’s top five however I think we can beat a Swansea side who will struggle this year and the 11/10 on offer at Paddy Power is good odds and is my NAP of the week. Although I think we still need a centre back we have completed some good business over the summer that will stand us in good stead this year and a top ten finish is well within our grasp. On the season handicap betting we are 15/1 with a 38 points start and that is my season long bet for us this year.
LONGSHOT - Singuer 3.30 Ripon 12/1
FOR THE NOTEBOOK Sole Power Nunthorpe Stakes 24.08.2012 9/1
The Great St Wilfred takes place at Ripon and Singeur can land the spoils at 12/1. He is on a roll and won at Ripon recently so is worth a pop. Also for the notebook next Friday Sole Power is worth a punt in the Nunthorpe Stakes.
Now onto Trevor Nelson. I am sure our regular reader is aware of Mr Nelson and his work “mixing the tunes” in various nightclubs but to commentate on the opening and closing ceremonies at the Olympics – No No and No. He is to Olympics commentary as Steve Claridge is to football punditry and who ever gave him the gig should be made to sit and listen to his ramblings on a constant loop as punishment. Mr Nelson now goes on the hitlist with Gurnham Singh, Joss Stone and anyone wearing a shirt with Samsung on it.
Rant over. Enjoy the game and Come on You R’s.
Professional odds compiler Alex Roe writes…
Go back to August 2011. It should have been the most exciting summer in W12 for many, many years but add together the efforts of the FA, Briatore and Ecclestone it was far from the happy time it should have been. Now fast forward to August 2012 and the feeling around the place is exactly what we should have enjoyed 12 months ago. The feel good factor around Loftus Road this Saturday afternoon could well see the team fly out of the traps and propel us to mid table mediocrity come May…Bliss!
Last year Swansea correctly won plenty of plaudits but a summer of change could well see them struggle certainly early doors. Sinclair and Dyer on either flank were excellent at isolating a full back and getting to the bye line, but what went un-noticed was how little interest they had in tracking back the other way. Time and again when I watched Swansea Joe Allan and Leon Britton were superb at not only keeping possession but helping out Angel & Taylor at full back when Sinclair and Dyer seemingly had better things to do. Ignore the price tag - the loss of Allan will be big. Its expected De Guzman will fill that role, whether he’s tactically aware enough to pick up loose runners however, we’ll have to wait and see.
Another unsung hero of last year was Steven Caulker. His displays have now seen him included in the England squad (although not sure that’s the achievement it once was). The replacement Chico Flores arrives from Genoa via Mallorca & we’ve seen down the years centre backs that arrive from the continent tend to struggle with the physicality of the premier league.
Onto the R’s and the gaffer has given away very little pre season in terms of what he views as his strongest side so from an early betting point of view its worth keeping stakes to a minimum. Taarabt, Hoillet, Mackie whoever Hughes decides to go with in the wide areas they've got the ability to get at and beat Taylor & Rangel especially with the lack of assistance the full backs will receive. Zamora and Cisse will be a match for any centre back this year so to have two powerful forwards capable of unsettling Chico Flores and Vorm (who was suspect in the air last year despite the plaudits he received for his shot-stopping) we could certainly have some joy in front of goal.
Taking into account all of the above it's no surprise to see the early quotes of 5-4 about the home win snapped up by punters as soon as prices were available. As it stands we're a top price 11-10 and I can't see that still being available come kick off.
I’m going to be splitting my stakes between comfortable winning scorelines for the R's. 2-0 (9-1 Stan James) & 3-0 (20-1 Stan James)
As for the rest of season I see us filling a spot anywhere between eighth and thirteenth come May. A top ten finish can be backed at 11-4 with a few firms but with so many teams with similar ambitions I could leave us at that price.
One price makes plenty of appeal is Djibril Cisse to finish as the club’s top Premier League goal scorer 9-4 (Bet Victor & Stan James). The other potential runners – Zamora does great work for team but is far from prolific. Taarabt as we know can be brilliant, awful, magical & inconsistent. Hoilett will play wider than he did at Blackburn & Johnson I’m not sure will get enough game time to win it leaving me with the conclusion that Cisse should collect for Punters at 9-4.
Whatever your backing good luck.
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