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Must win games 15:23 - Oct 28 with 3305 viewskensalriser

This should be fun. Assuming that no team with ten wins goes down and that we pick up a few points from draws and god knows, even an away win from a Free Bonus Game, here are the must win games (at home obviously). If you're really good at counting you'll spot there are actually 11, so we get one free defeat (already used) on the way to the 30 points.

Currently four points down.

0 LOSS Hull
3 WIN Sunderland
4 DRAW Stoke
7 WIN Aston Villa
10 WIN Leicester
13 WIN Burnley
16 WIN West Brom
17 DRAW Crystal Palace

West Ham
Swansea
Newcastle





[Post edited 30 Dec 2014 14:56]

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Must win games on 16:39 - Oct 28 with 3232 viewsMatch82

Sorry, I'm confused.
I think of a "must win" game as a game we must win, in order to stay up.

Are you suggesting that if we don't win 10 out of those 11 that we'll go down?
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Must win games on 18:29 - Oct 28 with 3155 viewsderbyhoop

10 wins is a good measure. I don't care who they come against. But the bottom half teams will be the best source.
Before the season started I was looking at 7 Home wins and 3 away. Optimistic? Possibly!

Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one’s lifetime. (Mark Twain) Find me on twitter @derbyhoop

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Must win games on 19:31 - Oct 28 with 3095 viewsjohncharles

Must win games on 16:39 - Oct 28 by Match82

Sorry, I'm confused.
I think of a "must win" game as a game we must win, in order to stay up.

Are you suggesting that if we don't win 10 out of those 11 that we'll go down?


That's about it. We need 40 points to have a chance of staying up. Our away form is shite. We need 10 home wins to give a fighting chance. Frightening isn't it ?

WAKE UP TONY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Strong and stable my arse.

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Must win games on 19:55 - Oct 28 with 3069 viewsMatch82

Must win games on 19:31 - Oct 28 by johncharles

That's about it. We need 40 points to have a chance of staying up. Our away form is shite. We need 10 home wins to give a fighting chance. Frightening isn't it ?

WAKE UP TONY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Let's look at the one season we stayed up.

Number of victories against "easy" (i'll define that as teams other than the "big 7") opposition: 3 out of 12 - Wigan, Stoke and Swansea.

We also beat Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal at home, and picked up 3 away victories.

Also worth noting that Villa stayed up that year with only 7 TOTAL wins, so 10 home wins seems a little extreme.

The point is, there's going to be a hell of a lot of unexpected results, which is why the concept of "must win" games seems a bit odd to me. If we can pick up 6-7 home wins in total, I'd be more than happy - we're already sitting on 2.
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Must win games on 20:29 - Oct 28 with 3036 viewsjohncharles

Agree with most of that Match82. This must win match stuff is a bit of a pain but we can' t hang our future on "unexpected results" either.

Strong and stable my arse.

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Must win games on 20:45 - Oct 28 with 3017 viewsRangersDave

Every game is a 'must win' game, home or away until we have enough points for safety.

Simples.

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Must win games on 21:16 - Oct 28 with 2985 viewskensalriser

Must win games on 16:39 - Oct 28 by Match82

Sorry, I'm confused.
I think of a "must win" game as a game we must win, in order to stay up.

Are you suggesting that if we don't win 10 out of those 11 that we'll go down?


Not quite - I think if we win ten we will stay up, but of course we already can't win ten, which means those points have to be gained elsewhere. How many do you see coming from away games?

Only a bit of fun, let's see how it pans out.

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Must win games on 21:30 - Oct 28 with 2965 viewsTacticalR

It's all too much for me. I must have a lie down.

Air hostess clique

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Must win games on 21:42 - Oct 28 with 2951 viewsozexile

Must win games on 20:45 - Oct 28 by RangersDave

Every game is a 'must win' game, home or away until we have enough points for safety.

Simples.


Seconded.
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Must win games on 21:44 - Oct 28 with 2951 viewsFredManRave

Is it too much to ask that we don't have one actual "Must Win" game this season. Our last home game can see us get the win against Newcastle that keeps us up and then we can all relax and partay with the last game away at Leicester and then bid a fond farewell to Harry.

I've got the Power.
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Must win games on 22:14 - Oct 28 with 2923 viewsCamberleyR

The 40 points target is a bit of a myth. Only once in the last 10 seasons has that many points been needed to stay up. The average is about 36 and average number of wins by the fourth bottom team between 8 and 9.

Get 10 wins and you'll stay up comfortably.

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Must win games on 22:24 - Oct 28 with 2900 viewsFredManRave

Must win games on 21:30 - Oct 28 by TacticalR

It's all too much for me. I must have a lie down.


It's surely too early in the season to "Must have a lie down".

I've got the Power.
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Must win games on 12:11 - Nov 30 with 2760 viewskensalriser

Looking better.

Hull would be bottom now if Charlie had scored that penalty...

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Must win games on 12:49 - Dec 7 with 2559 viewskensalriser

We've now played more than half our home games against the weaker half of the division, which might make our home form look better than it really is - but that may be balanced by the mirror image of our away record, where we've played against teams at or near the top.

Here's a crazy stat - only one team in the bottom half (Stoke) has won more games than we have. Of course, we've lost more than anyone and no team has drawn fewer. All we really need to do is get the odd point away...

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Must win games on 16:32 - Dec 7 with 2415 viewsLoft1979

Must win games on 12:49 - Dec 7 by kensalriser

We've now played more than half our home games against the weaker half of the division, which might make our home form look better than it really is - but that may be balanced by the mirror image of our away record, where we've played against teams at or near the top.

Here's a crazy stat - only one team in the bottom half (Stoke) has won more games than we have. Of course, we've lost more than anyone and no team has drawn fewer. All we really need to do is get the odd point away...


We have played 9 of the top 10. 7 of those 9 were away.

As of today, that 2-0 result at Ham hardly looks bad. If we get that point vs Pool and at least 1 vs Hull...not to mention one vs Chelsea our situation is not as dire. Basically I am saying that we are getting better, and could well be at 20 points after game 19.
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Must win games on 20:57 - Dec 22 with 2114 viewskensalriser

Not looking too shabby at all. Although we have only four of these left now, which means we do have to start picking up a few points from non-must win games soon.

Still the case that no team in the bottom half has won more games. It's the lack of draws that's really costing us.

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Must win games on 21:29 - Dec 22 with 2029 viewsloftboy

Must win games on 20:57 - Dec 22 by kensalriser

Not looking too shabby at all. Although we have only four of these left now, which means we do have to start picking up a few points from non-must win games soon.

Still the case that no team in the bottom half has won more games. It's the lack of draws that's really costing us.


Which is how Harry is setting us on away from home to get a point and he is getting (rightly) slated. Play to win them all including the bonus games, you never know if a top team will have an off day and it could be that day that makes a difference come May.

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Must win games on 13:44 - Dec 23 with 1866 viewsR_from_afar

Must win games on 12:11 - Nov 30 by kensalriser

Looking better.

Hull would be bottom now if Charlie had scored that penalty...


Or Rio knew how to mark his man properly at a corner!

RFA

"Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1."

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Must win games on 16:22 - Dec 23 with 1791 viewsTGRRRSSS

I always think that it's draws rather than losses that do for you, and this season will be no exception.
This isnt to say the odd draw would not be very needed and vital, BUT there are many side who lose quite a number of games but pick up more wins and losses together rather than draws and often end up higher up.
To a degree we can see that with ourselves this season already and are 16th.

We do need to pick up a few points away though, if we could do the double on those we've already got wins against, and frankly we probably need to win at least 2 of them I'd say we'd be very nearby staying about 19th.
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Must win games on 17:57 - Dec 23 with 1693 viewsQPR_John

Must win games on 19:31 - Oct 28 by johncharles

That's about it. We need 40 points to have a chance of staying up. Our away form is shite. We need 10 home wins to give a fighting chance. Frightening isn't it ?

WAKE UP TONY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Where does this 40 come from. Over the last 11 years the average for 18th is 34. Only in 2010 -11 would you have required 40 points to stay up
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Must win games on 15:00 - Dec 30 with 1486 viewskensalriser

Updated for the Palace game.

Only three of these left now and I can't see us winning more than one of them. The going is about to get tougher. I'm 50/50 on us getting relegated, yet you can get current odds of 15/8. Hmmm...

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