Norwich hope to avoid the travails of second season syndrome, and being that team that slips through the division after Christmas, under the astute management of Chris Hughton.

Overview

It’s easy to get lost in cliché and footballing fable when assessing the current situation at Norwich City – he says before getting lost in cliché and footballing fable while assessing the current situation at Norwich City.

They – and by they I mean those people in the pub who talk to you without you ever knowing quite who they are – talk a lot about a second season syndrome for promoted teams in the Premier League. The idea that teams who manage to survive in their first season in the top flight, and perhaps even do rather better than that, think they have it made and take their eye off the ball for the second campaign just as the rest of the division figures them out would appear to have some merit.

Ipswich finished fifth in the Premier League in 2000/01 immediately after winning promotion from the First Division and qualified for the UEFA Cup. Norwich fans will rejoice at the memory of their better rivals subsequently going out and spending reasonably big money on the likes of Finidi George and Matteo Sereni before getting relegated in that ‘difficult second season’. They’ve never been back since, and it took some time to recover from the subsequent financial difficulties as well. Further back a Middlesbrough side with Juninho and co in tow finished twelfth one year and were relegated the next.

Then there was Reading who, under the management of Steve Coppell, rather took the top division by storm in 2006/07 after winning the league below with a record 106 points the year before. They made very few additions to that title winning team and finished eighth in the Premier League with 55 points only to crash to relegation a year later in dead last having lost 14 of their last 21 fixtures.

And now of course we have QPR, who manager Mark Hughes said would “never be in this position again” after a narrow escape from relegation last season but who are now in deep strife and throwing good money after bad in an effort to prevent their own second season sickness becoming terminal. That rather smacks of Bradford City who completed an unlikely survival in 2000 only to throw ludicrous sums of money around at the likes of Dan Petrescu and Benito Carbone and get relegated a year later sparking a free fall that has seen them plummet through three leagues and only now look capable of recovering slightly.

Hull (2010), Birmingham (2011) and West Brom (2006) have all been relegated in their second season after promotion as well, suggesting there is something in it. But then that’s only six out of 36 teams relegated in the last twelve seasons. Neither Norwich nor Swansea have seemed particularly afflicted by it yet.

Then there’s this other idea passed down through generations by the elders that there is always a team that does reasonably well in the first half of a campaign only to suffer a collapse in form after Christmas and crash through into the relegation battle at the worst possible time. Millwall are the most famous example – top of the First Division table in November 1995 they went into a dive after manager Mick McCarthy left to take over as Republic of Ireland boss, winning four of their last 30 matches to finish relegated in 22nd. Hull City too won six and drew two of their first nine Premier League games in 2008/09 including wins at Newcastle, Arsenal and Spurs but fell to pieces after an ill advised half time, on field bollocking from manager Phil Brown. They subsequently won just two of their last 29 matches and stayed up only because Newcastle couldn’t win at Villa on the final day – Brown spent the post match signing into the stadium public address system rather than apologising for being a prat.

There are one or two candidates for this phenomena – if it can be called that – in the top flight this season of which Norwich are one alongside perhaps West Ham and Fulham. Chris Hughton was certainly concerned enough to state after a recent 5-0 thumping at Anfield that he didn’t need that result to tell him his squad needed strengthening. Whether that was genuine concern, or a Harry Redknapp-style ploy to get some purse strings loosened in January, is unclear. The Canaries have since signed Lee Camp to address a concerning goalkeeping situation, and Luciano Becchio from Leeds which looks like another astute piece of business with a lower division club that has become the hall mark of the fantastic rebuilding job done at Carrow Road over the past four years. While QPR trawl Europe throwing silly money at big names, Norwich have faired rather better by looking downstairs – and to Leeds in particular – and it will be the latest galling example of the strategy’s value if Loic Remy fails to fire while Becchio does the business for his new club.

Interview

We managed to rope in two Norwich fans from Twitter this week to give us a perspective on their team. We thank Nick Deal and My Football Writer columnist Kevin Baldwin for their time and input.

Assess Norwich's season so far for us. A nervy start, excellent middle, and Christmas collapse seems to about sum it up. What have been the main successes and failures?

Kevin: I'm not sure our indifferent start was down to nerves; it was more a case of the players getting used to a different way of playing under a different manager. Funnily enough, the turning point was a weekend we didn't play - it looks like Chris Hughton made excellent use of the break for international matches in October to get a lot of things sorted on the training ground. We beat Arsenal 1-0 in the next game, and that started our ten-match unbeaten run. We looked very solid and organised during that period, with enough flashes of inspiration to get the goals that got the points.

The run over Christmas wasn't actually as bad as it looks on paper. Yes, we only took one point from five games, but the games we lost were all by one goal and we could/should have taken something from all of them. We still looked strong and competitive, and I wasn't feeling at all worried. However, the performance in the 5-0 defeat at Liverpool was shockingly poor - the score could have been a lot worse - and you can guess how we played against Luton in the cup. We were much improved in our draw with Spurs in midweek, which I hope is a sign that we're getting back on track again. But it's now reached the stage where we just need a win, however scrappy or spawny,

The main successes of the season have been: the more solid shape of the team; the finding of a place for Wes Hoolahan in the line-up (every Norwich manager he's played for has initially left him out and then realised how valuable he is); the signings of Bassong, Tettey and Snodgrass. The main failures: a lack of creativity in midfield at times, even with Wes there; and what looks like excessive caution in games which look as though they are there to be won. Oh, and the alarming shakiness of the defence when Bassong isn't in it.

Nick: I think Norwich have done largely as people have expected them to do. A lot has been made of our current winless run on the back of the ten matches unbeaten, but as Chris Hughton said, if these two runs had intertwined then nobody would have batted an eyelid. We are difficult to beat at home and Hughton has made us a much more solid unit overall. I think we will comfortably survive this year, finishing anywhere between tenth and sixteenth.

Chris Hughton says it didn't need a 5-0 defeat at Liverpool to tell him the squad needed strengthening. Bids for Hooper and Graham suggest he thinks a new striker is the top priority - is he right? Where do you see the weak links?

Nick: When Hughton replaced Lambert in the summer, there was a massive shift in mentality. Lambert's method of 'attack is the best form of defence' served us well last year, but Hughton has adopted a more reserved and defensive approach. This change has meant that the forward players, particularly Holt, have struggled to hit the heights that they reached in terms of goals last year. I don’t think it’s a case of having a weak front line, I think Holt needs support from another quality out and out striker, and Hooper would have fitted the bill perfectly. I think defensively, when Bassong does not play, we struggle. Another quality centre back could be an important purchase.

Kevin: When your top scorer has only four league goals at this stage of the season, it's pretty clear that you're short in the striking department. So the attempts to bring in more firepower up front have been more than welcome. We have signed Becchio from Leeds and Kei Kamara from Kansas City. The latter's an unknown quantity (though it's a bit of a worry that when you type his name into YouTube, the second suggestion that pops up is 'Worst Miss Ever'), while I'm not exactly enthused about the former. Still, Steve Morison has moved to Leeds as part of the deal, and I think that's best for all concerned.

We have plenty of options in midfield, but the defence could still do with some strengthening. As mentioned, we look wobbly when Bassong isn't there, and you don't really want your back four to be so dependent on one individual. We've also missed John Ruddy in goal since he picked up his long-term injury; Mark Bunn has done OK (and was excellent against Spurs on Wednesday), but lacks Ruddy's presence. Perhaps sensing this, Hughton has brought in our old friend (and yours) Lee Camp until the end of the season.

What has Hughton done well, and what could he be doing better? Tough job to follow Lambert I imagine.

Kevin: A very tough job - but overall, he's done pretty well. He's bought astutely, given the team a solid look and shown that he's capable of getting committed performances from the team. He also comes across as a thoughtful, dignified, articulate man in interviews, which makes a nice change. Not that Lambert wasn't thoughtful, but he clearly regarded dealings with the media as something unimportant, to be got out of the way while saying as little as possible.

Hughton could sometimes makes substitutions earlier, and take a few more risks to go for the win - the draws at Reading and at home to Newcastle stand out as missed opportunities. But perhaps the approach feels more cautious than it is because of the three years under Lambert, who would be more gung-ho when he sniffed victory.

Nick: For anyone to follow in the footsteps of Lambert was always going to be a difficult challenge. I think Hughton was helped by the cloud that Lambert left under, as many fans thought that it was a fresh start. Hughton has made us much more difficult to break down. This year we have been grinding out a lot more 1 - 0's, as opposed to last year when we were drawing 3 - 3 and what not. I would take a hard fought 1 - 0 every time over entertainment value. There has always been a sense of togetherness at Norwich between the players, and Hughton has only improved this. His work in the transfer market has been shrewd and effective. Personally, I think Hughton has not got confidence in changing from his favoured 4-5-1 formation, and this has meant there has been a lack of goals this year. Sometimes I think he could chance his arm a little more and shake things up occasionally, which was something that Lambert was superb at.

How do the fans feel towards Paul Lambert, given the acrimonious nature of his departure? How was he received when Villa came back to Carrow Road? What do you make of the difficulties he is having at Villa Park?

Nick: I can only speak for myself, but I cannot thank Lambert enough for what he did for our football club. From the bottom of League 1 to the Premier League in two seasons, combined with keeping the club financially secure, is an incredible feat. A lot of people thought that the way he left the club was poor. It was always inevitable that he was going to move on and although the way that it happened was upsetting, when we visited Villa in the league, and they came back to Carrow Road in the League Cup, he was applauded by the majority of fans, because we know where we would still be without his marvellous effort over his time here. Personally, it upsets me to see the trouble that villa are in under his leadership. At Norwich, Lambert was known to be a brilliant man manager, which makes it even more puzzling as to why the Villa players appear to have no passion or desire to win games. If Villa did get relegated, I don't think Lambert could be blamed. He inherited a club going through a shockingly difficult period and is doing the best he can with limited resources. If Villa do go down they should keep him at the helm, and then they will be straight back up.

Kevin: There's a wide range of opinion, from outright loathing with cries of betrayal, to lasting respect. I'm firmly of the latter view - what he did at the club was nothing short of miraculous, and he gave us the most sustained period of excitement I've known in my forty-odd years of following City.

When we visited Villa Park earlier this season, he was treated with neutral indifference. When they came to Carrow Road in the Capital One Cup, he was greeted with a chorus of 'How green is your grass?', but I think that was pretty restrained really.

I'm very surprised that he's struggling so much at Villa. He turned our fortunes around almost immediately, and displayed almost supernatural tactical ability in his three years at Carrow Road. But then we've seen this happen before, when Mike Walker flopped at Everton after being brilliant for us. Sometimes things just click and sometimes they just don't, I guess.

How do you see the rest of the season going? Is there a danger Norwich could be drawn towards the relegation battle or are you confident you have enough about you to survive?

Kevin: There definitely is a danger of being sucked into the scrap. We've all seen teams plummet down the table in the second half of the season after appearing safe at Christmas - and we have been that team before now. What looks like a comfortable cushion can disappear in a couple of weeks. I think the next two or three games are crucial - win a couple and we should be OK, but if not we'll all be anxiously consulting the results predictor on the BBC site until May.

Nick: I don’t think Norwich will be relegated this season. The squad has only improved from last year and this can only better our chances of survival. Our home form will be key in keeping us up and we have enough depth in the squad to see us survive. It may not be as comfortable as last season, but I think we will survive no problem.

Is Grant Holt as good as last season? How is his 'difficult second album' going? Was he affected by the contract talk in the summer?

Nick: Grant Holt is still the same player that he was last year. A lot of people are saying that he is not as good purely because of the number of goals he has scored. There is an argument that Premier League defenders have got him worked out now, but I simply think it is the change of formation and system that had restricted his goal return this season. He said throughout the summer that he wanted to stay at Norwich and just needed the confirmation that he could see out his career here. I don’t think this will have affected his head or changed his game at all. Within in the dressing room and on the training ground he seems to be exactly the type of player you want around to help bring everyone together. The work he does behind the scenes in the build up play, and the work he does off the ball is still second to none. I think it’s a massive compliment to any player when you go to opposition grounds and you are victimised by the opposition fans, it must mean you're doing something right?

Kevin: He's obviously more of a known quantity now. I don't think the contract talk has affected him, but his role in the team's system has. Since he's now playing as the lone man up front in Hughton's 4-4-1-1 system, he often finds himself running into wide channels - which of course means that he's not in the box where we want him. He still plays a crucial role in upsetting opposition defences (and fans), though. We're not the same team without him. We fucking love Grant Holt. (That's one of our songs, by the way, not just me being gratuitously foul-mouthed.)

Who are your players of the year so far?

Kevin: Sebastian Bassong has been immense in the heart of defence, and Robert Snodgrass has been great, especially with his set-piece delivery. But my player of the season so far is Wes Hoolahan. It's not just his magic on the ball, but his sheer desire and energy. His performance in our 1-1 draw at Southampton was utterly brilliant for 90 minutes. And at long last, he's being selected for Republic of Ireland squads - seems that Trapattoni has become the latest manager to belatedly recognise his talents.

Nick: Sebastian Bassong has been absolutely massive for us this year. In the three games he has been missing, we have conceded 15 goals, which goes someway to show how important he is to us. As well as being a rock at the back he has also chipped in with three goals this season too. He is a commander and such a strong character and player - it’s impossible not to like him. Robert Snodgrass has also been a brilliant summer acquisition. He has added an extra bit of class to the midfield and going forward. Norwich had previously been poor at set pieces and he now makes us a real threat. And I would also say, Grant Holt. His work ethic and will power is something that all players should look at and aspire to. He hasn’t scored the goals he would have liked this year, but that isn’t through lack of effort.

Scout Report

Ordinarily as a new manager going into a club you’re arriving in a situation where all is not well, the team is under-performing, new blood has been sent for and sweeping changes are required. What is, in many ways, more difficult for a boss is coming into a club where your predecessor has actually done a brilliant job. Not only do you have his achievements to live up to, but there’s also the issue of just how much – or how little – you do to the team. Clearly you want to impress your own ideas, style, preferred tactics and shape onto the side that is now under your charge, but given that things were working so well before you got there how far do you go in that and how quickly?

Paul Lambert achieved two promotions in consecutive years at Norwich and then kept them in the Premier League in their first season with plenty to spare. That’s some act to follow. Lambert was known for picking a horse for a course – regularly making several changes to a winning team and swapping the shape of the unit around – but his City team was probably best known for its diamond midfield set up which allowed Wes Hoolahan to blossom in a role behind the strikers, and full back Russell Martin to pose a real attacking threat bombing down one wing. With a preference for one physical striker (Grant Holt, Steve Morison) alongside a more technical player (Simeon Jackson) and a midfield with a mixture of good ball players (Anthony Pilkington, Andrew Surman) and destroyer tendencies (Bradley Johnson) it was a system that allowed Norwich to pose a variety of threats.

For instance, they regularly troubled QPR from crosses during the promotion season and first year in the Premier League together. Grant Holt scored against the R’s with a header from a cross in 2010/11 and 2011/12 as well as winning a penalty by collapsing in typically theatrical style under another centre at Loftus Road – Hoolahan missed the subsequent kick. Russell Martin has scored twice in recent meetings between the two from full back suggesting that Lambert felt that QPR can be got at in wide areas. But similarly, that presense of Hoolahan behind the strikers and the technical players behind him mean they can just as easily work an easy-on-the-eye move around the edge of the penalty area and Simeon Jackson’s goal against Rangers at Carrow Road this season was a result of that.

So, what has Hughton changed. Well, simply put, Norwich are now a team that go out primarily not to lose a game rather than, under Lambert, when they played for a win regardless of the opposition. They sit deep when out of possession, with two banks of four or a four and a five behind the ball. Holt is now more of a link man than a goal scorer, playing alone up front in either a 4-4-1-1 or 4-5-1 set up depending on the opposition. He has four goals from 25 appearances this season compared to 11 at the same stage last campaign – and three of the four this season came in a quick burst at the start of October including two consolation strikes in very heavy defeats – but that doesn’t mean he’s not playing as well, he’s less effective, or that Premier League defenders have figured him out. He’s just playing a hold up and lay game these days, often drifting into wider areas to receive balls down the field, bring them under control and then supply deeper runners.

QPR, and Clint Hill in particular, have never been able to cope with Holt since he moved to Carrow Road and they’ll have to make a decision on how they approach him this weekend with that in mind. They could basically man mark him with Samba and hope that he, unlike Hill, can win the physical battle although in doing so you run the risk of conceding a lot of free kicks when Holt does that trademark move where he turns the ball round the corner of a big centre back, wraps his own arm around the opponent’s back and then falls to the floor as if he’s been sinned against. And as Holt drifts into the channels you also face the possibility of Samba being dragged out of the heart of defence where he’s needed most. Rangers could instead focus on the second balls off Holt, making sure the runners from midfield are tracked and the area around the edge of the penalty box is crowded – Shaun Derry is an obvious candidate for that, but can Harry Redknapp afford to commit too many men to a defensive effort in a game his team really need to win?

It will be interesting to see if the arrival of Luciano Becchio is with the idea of playing alongside Holt – probably in a 4-4-2 - or instead of him.

Another difference in this Norwich side is the greater width in midfield. Lambert would use Elliott Bennett as a conventional winger when he felt he was facing a full back lacking pace but generally stuck with his diamond set up. Hughton has a much more traditional four or five man midfield set up with Robert Snodgrass the key an in wide areas. I never really rated Snodgrass at Leeds to be honest but he’s been excellent for Norwich so far and is dangerous from dead ball situations as well as in open play.

And he’s changed the defence around a little bit too. Sebastien Bassong’s woeful performances for Wolves last season had QPR fans counting their blessings that a proposed move to Loftus Road fell through last January but since moving to Norwich this season he’s become the key part of their defence. Norwich have taken some shallackings this season – 5-0 at Liverpool, 5-0 at Fulham, 5-2 at home to Liverpool – and it’s noticeable that Bassong was absent for all three of those, although he did play when they conceded four to Man City, Chelsea and (in the League Cup) Villa. Uncertainty in the goalkeeper position hasn’t helped that with John Rudd and Mark Bunn both playing in the absence of the injured John Ruddy – former QPR favourite Lee Camp arrived in the transfer window to add another name to the roster.

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simmo added 17:26 - Feb 1 the finding of a place for Wes Hoolahan in the line-up (every Norwich manager he's played for has initially left him out and then realised how valuable he is) - Where have we heard that before??
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RiverEndRick added 22:37 - Feb 1 As a Norwich fan, I'd like to pay compliment the the quality of this article and the title sums up our position at the moment, with just a hint of uncertainty lingering there. Well done, and may the best team win tomorrow! Should be a great match!
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TacticalR added 00:15 - Feb 2 Thanks for your write up and thanks to Kevin and Nick for their comments. I wondered how Norwich would do without the 'Lambert factor', and they have acquitted themselves well so far. Hughton seems a good fit. They were certainly much better than us at Carrow Road. Holt is not just a big lump. He is capable of some deft touches, and brings others into play. Hopefully Samba can handle him if Holt stays up front. Otherwise (as you suggested) set the man with a dog in a raincoat tattoo to pay close attention to him.

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