Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Draw a safe bet as QPR head to Reading - betting
Friday, 8th Nov 2013 19:11 by Andy Hillman and Owen Goulding

Winners aplenty for both our pundits last week, so if you fancy lining your pockets this weekend here's where you should be looking.

Andy Hillman

Yet another cracking week for me, with another four winners last time out, including a 5/2 shot. I'm actually more disappointed that I didn’t make it five out of five though, as Roma dropped their first points of the season, after 11 games. I make that eleven winners in the last three weeks, the majority of them at odds against. Here’s hoping that the run continues a little while longer yet...

NAP of the week: Wimbledon vs Coventry — Coventry to win @ 10/11

Coventry are doing exceptionally well, despite the chaos around them. Despite playing their home games at Northampton , and the ten point deduction and the fact that they’re Coventry , they find themselves just outside the playoffs. Even Leon Clarke is banging them in, with 11 in 17. Doesn’t it just make you sick? Wimbledon’s win last week against Rochdale is their only win in their last seven, Coventry are unbeaten in seven, winning five of them, including their last three. Near as dammit evens to win for Coventry is massive in the circumstances.

QPR related bets: Match drawn @ 12/5

So whereas in previous weeks I've struggled to find anything to bet on for the QPR fixture, this week the obvious QPR bet leaps out from the internet — match drawn. Reading have only won one of their last five games, but are unbeaten at home. QPR don’t fare particularly well away from home, not winning in their last three away games. A draw @ 12/5 is the obvious bet. You can get 10/1 on ‘No Goalscorer’ (better than 0-0 correct score, as own goals don’t count...) and that might be worth a small punt as well.

Premiership Shorts:

Crystal Palace vs Everton - Everton to win @ 8/13
Copy and paste from last week, ad infinitum. Palace are awful, Everton are not. Everton to win. Job done.

Sunderland vs Man City — Aguero to score anytime @ 11/13
Copy and paste from last week, keep increasing those numbers. He’s now 12 goals in his last nine games, and keeps getting better and better. Whilst those odds stay near evens, I'll keep recommending it.

Swansea vs Stoke — Under 1.5 goals @ 9/4
Two of the dullest teams in the league this season with a combined average of well under goal a game. Throw in the absence of Michu for Swansea and a midweek European tie in the middle or Russia to further weaken Swansea , and this has all the hallmarks of a fairly turgid encounter.

Southampton vs Hull — Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

Eighteen of the 20 games the two teams have played this season have been under 2.5 goals. Two of the meanest defences in the league (things you never thought you’d say number 27...) and neither side is fairly prolific at the other end. This will almost certainly finish low scoring, I fancy possibly 1-0 Southampton.

Previous Winners:

West Brom v Crystal Palace — WBA to win @ 3/5, 01/11/13

Fulham vs Man Utd — Man U to win & BTTS @ 5/2, 01/11/13

Man City vs Norwich — Aguero anytime @ 10/11, 01/11/13

QPR v Derby : HT Draw @ 5/4, 01/11/13

NAP of the Week - Crystal Palace vs Arsenal - Arsenal (-1) at Evens, 25/10/13

Aston Villa vs Everton - Everton to Win @ 13/10 25/10/13

Chelsea vs Man City - Aguero to score anytime @ 9/4 25/10/13

Arsenal vs Norwich - Arsenal to win & BTTS @ 2/1, 18/10/13

Crystal Palace vs Fulham - Fulham to win @ 15/8, 18/10/13

Everton vs Hull - Ht/FT Draw/Everton @ 10/3, 18/10/13

Charlie Austin anytime goal scorer v Millwall @ 11/8 18/10/13

QPR related bet: QPR to win to nil v Barnsley @ 33/20, 03/10/13

NAP of the Week - Forest to beat Huddersfield @ 5/6 — 02/08/13

NAP of the Week - Bordeaux vs Monaco - Monaco to win @ 6/4, 09/08/13

NAP of the week: Monaco to Beat Montpellier @ 4/7, 15/08/13

NAP of the week: Man City to win to nil @ 20/23 — 29/08/13

NAP of the week 2 - Man Utd vs Palace - Utd to win to nil @ 21/20 — 13/09/13

NAP of the week 3 - Sunderland vs Arsenal - Arsenal to win @ 8/11 — 13/09/13

QPR Related bet: QPR vs Birmingham - QPR win @ 3/5 — 13/09/13

Giroud and Sturridge to score anytime double 6/1 — 13/09/13

QPR to win at Yeovil @ 11/13 — 20/09/13

NAP of the week — Blackpool vs Leicester — BTTS @ 7/9 — 20/09/13

NAP of the Week - Liverpool to beat Sunderland @ 7/10 — 27/09/13

Roma vs Bologna - Roma win to Nil @ 7/5 — 27/09/13

The Pro

QPR take centre stage this Saturday lunchtime with another away appearance on Sky and can return to the top of the table with a win at the Madjeski. However, with injuries to Niko Kranjcar, Little Tom Carroll and of course the incredibly unlucky Ale Faurlin, it will more than likely be a return to the more defensive Karl Henry/Joey Barton/Jermaine Jenas midfield combination.

Pricing up this game wasn't easy, and it is very hard to separate the teams. Reading seem to be on wobbly ground at the moment with off-field issues dominating their season, and on the pitch they are very unpredictable at present. They took a bit of a beating at Sheffield Wednesday at the weekend, but anyone who saw the game would have to admit that the heavy defeat was unjust. On paper Reading have a strong side and were expected to be challenging for the title this season. A run of only one win in their last five games has seen them stumble a bit but I'm not getting carried away with that from a betting point of view.

Someone asked me in midweek if I just pick selections out based on what I think will win but the truth is the secret to successful betting is not about picking what you think will win, but instead finding value in the prices you are backing - so I will explain a little bit below about why I've pick a certain selection.

Reading are unbeaten at home this season but have drawn three of their seven home games. Likewise, QPR have also drawn three of their seven away games. With each team drawing 43% of their respective home/away games, I'm looking at the price of the draw for this one and at a best priced 12/5, this looks a worthy bet. I won't bore you with the mathematics, but 12/5 equates to a 29% chance of a draw and with the stats (and team news) making the draw much more likely in this game, the recommended bet for this game has to be the draw.

Recommended Bet for Game: Reading v QPR Draw - 12/5 (Bet365/Betfred)

Elsewhere in the Championship, the price on Yeovil to win on Sunday looks good value at 3/1. Wigan have been looking tired in recent weeks with their European trips catching up on them and a long trip to Russia this week isn't going to help their cause. Yeovil are struggling at the foot of the table but excellent recent home performances against Forest, Brighton and Leicester make it impossible to ignore the 3/1 on offer for a home win here.

Bet of the Weekend: Yeovil to beat Wigan - 3/1 (Generally available)

Big Price goalscorers: A good week last week with Caulker netting at a massive 15/1. Let's see if we can do it again…

Bolton v Millwall - Matt Mills Anytime 12/1 - (SkyBet/Coral/Hills)

Boreham Wood v Carlisle - Sean O'Hanlon Anytime 12/1 (Hills)

Previous Winners:

Steven Caulker to score Cardiff v Swansea 15/1 888Sport, 01/11/13

Burnley QPR HT 0-0 7/4 and Draw at HT 11/10., 25/10/13

Oldham to beat Swndon - 2/1 (BetVictor), 25/10/13

Bet of the weekend - Charlie Austin to score anytime v Barnsley Evens 03/10/13

Benteke to score at any time v Arsenal at 11/4 (Coral/Skybet), 17/08/13

Nile Ranger First Goalscorer Each Way 11/2 (Paady Power/Skybet), 28/08/13

QPR to score first v Leeds at Even money (Bwin/Betfair), 28/08/13

Joey Barton to score at any time vs Middlesbrough 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet), 27/09/13

Tweet @andy_hillman

Pictures — Action Images

Photo: Action Images



Please report offensive, libellous or inappropriate posts by using the links provided.


You need to login in order to post your comments

Queens Park Rangers Polls

About Us Contact Us Terms & Conditions Privacy Cookies Advertising
© FansNetwork 2024