The LFW pundits return to cast their eyes over a weekend of football action, and of course QPR’s Saturday trip to Doncaster.

Andy Hillman

Another respectable week for me last week, with another two winners at evens, and a refund on the Milan vs Genoa game with the Draw No Bet Market. Disappointed that QPR didn’t show a little more attacking threat in their game against Charlton, I thought that the -1 was a pretty safe bet truth be told...

NAP of the week: Newcastle to beat West Brom @ 20/19

Newcastle, possibly the Premier League’s most bi-polar side, are currently in one of their ascendancy periods. They’ve won three on the spin, with only a single loss in their last seven, and are keeping pace with Man Utd and Everton in that clutch of sides fighting in and around sixth. Our very own Loic Remy has eight goals this season, including three in his last four. West Brom threw away a two goal lead on Monday against Villa, and have only one once in their last six games, with four draws. Newcastle’s sky high confidence means that better than evens is very good value indeed.

Doncaster vs QPR — QPR to win to nil @ 19/10

Donny is not only a cracking away day, it’s also quite a happy hunting ground for QPR in recent times. Donny are struggling at the bottom end of the Championship, and lost 2-0 midweek against the same insipid Charlton side that we beat last weekend. They did bizarrely beat Leicester back at the start of October though. A QPR win to nil at nearly 2/1 appeals. You can also get 11/2 on a correct score 1-0.

QPR vs Bournemouth — QPR to win to nil @ 11/8

Two games in four days this week for QPR, but Bournemouth at home isn’t a bad game to get as your second one. Bournemouth started the season on fire, hovering around the top six for the first half dozen or so games, but a run of one win in nine has seen them regress to a more expected position, sixteenth. Bournemouth’s only away win this season was at Saturday’s opponents Doncaster, and with QPR boasting the division’s best home record and defence, another win to nil is sure to follow.

Norwich vs Palace — under 1.5 goals @ 9/4

Well this game is nailed on to be the opening game on Match of the Day on Saturday. Norwich have scored seven goals at home in the league, Palace have only scored three away from home. Much has been said about Hooper, Van Wolfswinkle and Elmander’s profligacy in front of goal this season, and Becchio can’t even get a game. Tony Pulis’ first job in charge of Palace will be to make them tough to beat, so expect some old fashioned Pulis magic coming to a Premier League ground near you. Norwich can’t score. Palace won’t want to concede. Low goals, if any.

European Shorts:

Atalanta vs Roma — Roma to win @ Evens — Roma have understandably slowed down after their ridiculous start, drawing their last three in a row, and dropping second behind Juve, but will have too much for an Atlanta side whose home form is artificially inflated by virtue of the fact they’ve only beaten lower sides at home.

RM vs Valladoilid — Gareth Bale to score anytime @ Evens - As Tottenham get worse, Bale gets better. He now has five in six for Madrid, and will be looking to score against a Valladoilid side that only has one win in 11.

Wolfsburg vs Hamburg — Wolfsburg to win @ Evens — Wolfsburg have won four of their last five games. They have scored at least two goals in ten of their last 11 home games. Hamburg have the worst defensive record in the league, and they have been involved in some ridiculous scoring games, their games average over 4.5 goals a game.

Previous Winners:

Roma vs Bologna - Roma win to Nil @ 7/5 — 27/09/13

The Pro

Yet another 1-0 win for Rangers last week sets them up for another trip to Yorkshire , where they have already won this season - yes you've guessed it, by one goal to nil. It's getting to be quite a habit.

It definitely felt, as in a number of our narrow victories this season, that had QPR really let loose, they could of put three or four past Charlton and with Doncaster only winning one of their last six games, the Rangers faithful will be hoping for a comprehensive performance here. Doncaster 's home form is all over the place really. Fine wins versus Blackburn and Leicester, and a credible point against Forest are more than decent performances to point to, yet they've also suffered convincing beatings by Brighton, Bournemouth, Leeds and Burnley along the way.

A very hard side to work out - from what I've seen of Doncaster this season, it seems manager Paul Dickov has overhauled their style of football and the ball spends much more time on the floor at the Keepmoat than it has done in previous seasons. Their main strengths lie in the highly industrious midfielder Mark Duffy who will need to be watched carefully, and surprisingly the 'elusive' Federico Macheda up front looks a threat.

Team news wise, there is no doubt the 'Born to play in the Championship' centre half Rob Jones is a big miss at both ends of the field for Donny, although Tottenham loanee Khumalo seems to have filled the void admirably. QPR could welcome back Tom Carroll which may help towards creating more chances for the never-tiring Charlie Austin, but I would expect it be a very similar line-up to last week for Rangers. So we have two sides, both intent on keeping the ball on the floor as much as possible- on a decent surface. This may resemble more of a training game.

Looking more closely at the match, The simple stats are that only Yeovil have scored less than Doncaster in the league this season, and in the top half of the table only Wigan (17) have scored less than QPR (18) and they've also played a game less.
This match has all the hallmarks of yet another QPR 1-0 win. I look at the match prices and I couldn't back QPR at 4/6, especially considering they have only won one of their last five away games -and as such, the 5/1 on a QPR 1-0 doesn't make massive appeal. There is a price which stands out a country mile for me and that is QPR to score under 1.5goals currently available at 10/11 with Coral, that represents a 52% chance of it happening.

In truth, QPR have only scored more than one goal away from home once in eight games this season, meaning for this season, it has actually worked out so far 87.5% of the time. With the price available virtually doubling your money on an outcome that is much more likely than the toss of a coin, it's my bet for this game.

Bet of the day: Doncaster v QPR - QPR to score Under 1.5 Goals @10/11 (Coral)

Elsewhere, an injury time equaliser earned Cardiff a much deserved point last week and made sure my Bet of The Weekend copped again. This week looks much harder and I must admit I am struggling to find massive value anywhere on the coupon. However, I must admit being interested in the big clash of the day in League Two where Fleetwood entertain leaders Oxford. Oxford are surpassing all expectations as their small squad continue to perform miracles at the head of the table, but the truth is despite them having an excellent away record (unbeaten away this season) they are yet to travel to a team in the top six. Fleetwood will be their first opponents from this bracket and the 6/5 on offer for a Fleetwood win this week looks too tempting to pass up.

Bet of the Weekend: Fleetwood to beat Oxford @ 6/5 (Coral)

Elsewhere, my big price goalscorer bets for this week are

West Ham v Fulham - James Collins - 12/1 Anytime - (General)

Swindon v Carlisle - Sean O Hanlon - 16/1 Anytime (Coral/Hills)

Notts County v Brentford - Harlee Dean - 16/1 Anytime (Coral)

Happy punting.

Previous Winners:

Joey Barton to score at any time vs Middlesbrough 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet), 27/09/13

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Pictures — Action Images

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