The LFW betting pundits return to offer their opinions on QPR's weekend match against Nottingham Forest.

Andy Hillman

Just the one win for me last time out, Man Utd’s demolition of Newcstle, as QPR and Harry Redknapp frankly couldn’t be arsed vs Bournemouth’s ten men, and Roma, 3-0 up and cruising, gave away a last minute penalty because they were bored and fancied something different...

NAP of the week: Swansea vs Chelsea — Chelsea to win @ 5/6

My original thought was to suggest Chelsea to win to nil (2/1) — Chelsea boast a division high 15 clean sheets this season. But Swansea, despite only winning one of their last 11, have scored in nearly every one of those, and have only failed to score once in the league at home this season. Nearly evens on the vanilla Chelsea win seems much safer to me.

QPR related bet: QPR vs Forest - Lay QPR at Evens

If it wasn’t for Jamie Mackie I probably wouldn’t bother leaving the pub on Saturday. I have little to no interest to watch QPR huff and puff and utterly fail to do anything other than hope that Morrison pulls some magic out of his arse, and the Forest game promises to be one of those hideous, turgid affairs that ends up with us losing because a) it’s Forest, and b) Forest haven’t won in 12 and we’ve all seen this film before. Mackie is 7/2 to score anytime. I will unashamedly applaud and sing his name when he does so.

FA Cup Double: Arsenal (vs Wigan) & Hull (vs Shef U) @ 2/1

Even Arsenal can’t mess this one up, can they? Arsenal will NEVER get a better opportunity to win a trophy, and after eight years Wenger must know that the devalued FA Cup is the bare minimum required to appease Piers Morgan, Arsenal Spokesman. Over 2/1 for both Premier League teams to win at Wembley has to appeal.

Yeovil vs Bournemouth — Bournemouth to win @ 11/10

The Bournemouth Juggernaut rolls on, five wins on the spin, eight wins in their last 10 games, and with many of the playoff hopefuls hitting atrocious form, Bournemouth look great shouts for a playoff berth. They travel to Yeovil, who only have one win in eight games. Bournemouth at better than evens looks a great shout.

Stoke vs Newcastle — Stoke win @ 11/10

Mark Hughes behaviour during, and after the QPR debacle may stick in the craw, but Stoke are playing well at present, and Newcastle very much are not, so this price sticks out quite a lot. Newcastle are still without Remy, which leaves them absolutely impotent in attack. Stoke’s only two defeats in their last ten game against Man City and Chelsea, and are always strong at home. Better than Evens is a gift.

Previous winners:

Roma vs Bologna - Roma win to Nil @ 7/5 — 27/09/13

The Pro

QPR welcome a free-falling Forest to Loftus Road for the lunchtime kick-off. Forest are in what can only be described as abysmal form and their last victory actually came thirteen games ago. I know a number of QPR fans who think this run will end on Saturday.

Redknapp's unfathomable team selections continued apace in midweek with the selection of Luke Young at centre-half. A number of QPR fans made money backing Blackburn on the back of Redknapp’s bizarre team sheet and I think a number will be jumping on to back Forest here at a best priced 13/5. However, this represents little value in truth. QPR, for all their poor performances, have only lost two games at home all season- this equates to 10% of games lost at home. 13/5 represents a 27 percent chance of Nottm Forest winning and so you can see there is no real value in this price when using your head instead of your heart.

The value happens to be in the draw price. I would think Rangers would happily take a point as they stumble over the play off line. The draw is available at 5/2, which converts to a 28% chance. QPR have drawn 25% if their home games with Forest drawing a whopping 50% of their away games. With the average chance of the draw based on these two stats being 37.5%, the 5/2 is definitely the bet for this one. Although as per usual, I’d probably wait for Redknapp to use his lottery machine to pick his starting line up before getting involved...

Recommended Bet: QPR v Forest - Draw @5/2 - Bet365.

Elsewhere, my bet of the weekend comes at Turf Moor where Burnley can all but confirm their deserved promotion with a win over a recently revived Middlesbrough. Boro are in great form taking ten out of a possible 12 points since their defeat to QPR but they have a defensive injury crisis here. They will be missing three of the back four that has proved so consistent in the last four games, with Gibson and Omerou suspended and the excellent George Friend injured. Add the fact that Danny Ings is available again for the Clarets and the 10/11 widely available for a Burnley win is much too big. To give you an idea, a price of around 11/10 (with home advantage) would suggest teams are of similar standard so 10/11 suggests Burnley are only marginally better than Boro. If Boro were at full strength, then maybe I could agree, but considering their injury crisis, 10/11 appears a massive price.

Bet of Weekend: Burnley to beat Middlesbrough 10/11 (general)

Big Price Goalscorers - Both available at PaddyPower

James Tarkowski (Swindon v BRENTFORD) 12/1 Anytime

Stephen Arthurworrey (TRANMERE v Shrewsbury) 19/1 Anytime

Previous Winners:

Joey Barton to score at any time vs Middlesbrough 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet), 27/09/13

The Twitter @loftforwords, @andy_hillman

Photo: Action Images

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