After a dull, uninspiring season of football, QPR can finally inject some excitement back into our lives as the play-offs begin for them this evening with a trip to Wigan Athletic.

Wigan Athletic (5th) v Queens Park Rangers (4th)

Championship play-off semi-final, first leg >>> Friday May 9, 2014 >>> Kick Off 19.45 >>> DW Stadium, Wigan >>> Live on Sky Sports 1

Well this is all jolly exciting isn’t it? A play-off. Only the second in the history of Queens Park Rangers. Shit just got real.

Now we’ll learn as we go along I’m sure but the first thing you’ll need to know, and will almost certainly be told immediately, is that the play-off final in the Championship is, in fact, the “richest game in world football” with the victor riding off into the sunset to suckle £120m from Richard Scudamore’ssmokeyteet. Ignore the pain or glory, this is all about money. Never mind the quality, feel the width.

The second thing you’ll be told, probably in the form of a rhetorical question if it’s Don Goodman on the commentary gantry, is that the end of season play-offs are a “complete lottery”. Form, fitness, ability — it all goes clean out of the window apparently. In much the same way as Harry Redknapp picks his QPR starting elevens, the main contenders are slung into a hat or a bowl or a device of some similar description and the lucky one to be drawn out by the footballing Gods wins.

There is a slither of truth in this. The play-offs often have a way of breaking the heart of the most talented team taking part. The Ipswich Town side of the late 1990s were widely recognised as the best footballing side in the second tier but a tendency to panic near the end of campaigns left them facing four successive play-off failures. The pain became so much that the Tractor Boys used the presense of their chairman David Sheepshanks on the FA board to lobby for a rule change and so now, uniquely in the world of two-legged cup football, away goals no longer count in these semi-finals. Ipswich left to reflect on a terrific job of bolting an empty stable door on that one.

Everybody has a favourite theory as to how you can weight the luck in your favour.

There’s a theory that it’s always the form team, crashing into the top six late in the campaign, that stands a better chance of winning through. If that’s true then the victor this year will almost certainly come from the other semi final. For Derby County this season read Crystal Palace in 2003/04. The Eagles won 17 of 23 after appointing Iain Dowie in December to, initially, rescue them from a relegation scrap and the defeated West Ham in the final. Since Steve McClaren arrived at Pride Park the Rams have risen from fourteenth to third and won the away leg of their semi-final 2-1 at Brighton last night. Albion, meanwhile, only won their place in the knock-out in the very last second of the final game of the season. They will take heart from Blackpool in 2009/10 who finished sixth by a single point from seventh but beat Cardiff City, who’d kicked around the automatic promotion places all season, 4-3 in a pulsating final.

Wigan did a bit of a mini-Palace themselves after the arrival of UweRosler — winning nine and drawing one of ten league and cup games to ascend into the mix — and they’ve proven to be specialists in knockout football in recent times, winning the FA Cup against the odds last season and beating Manchester City on the way to the semi-finals this year. This is, however, their sixty first game of the season and fuel levels must be critical.

QPR would appear to have nothing going for them. Three wins and a draw from their last five matches isn’t bad, but they’ve won only two of their last seven away games — losing the other five — and haven’t been involved in a genuinely competitive game for weeks, since it became clear that they’d conceded too much ground to Leicester and Burnley. The R’s season has been built largely on the form right at the very beginning, when they were unbeaten in 12 matches with Steve McClaren — now at Derby — in the dug out.

But they can take heart from the West Ham side of 2011/12. They beat Blackpool 2-1 in a typically dull final after disposing of Cardiff in the semis and were promoted back to the Premier League at the first time of asking. But, like QPR, they’d been widely criticised by their own fans for an uninspiring, dull, boring style of play throughout the regular season. Big Fat Sam and all the favoured clients of his big fat dodgy agent rather plodded through the campaign. They failed to win in seven consecutive games at Upton Park that season as the abuse from their own became too much and in the end only a club record 13 away wins carried them over the line.

In the end the fact that West Ham had the best players and the most money counted. QPR are in the same position. You cannot write off a side that has Charlie Austin and Ravel Morrison as its central front two at this level.

You can actually make a very strong argument that a promotion now is the last thing QPR need. Financially, staying out of the Premier league and away from its pots of television money while nursing a £160m debt and with the parachute payments clock ticking could be catastrophic. But there’s little indication that, if they do win promotion, Rangers will do something other than simply make all the same mistakes all over again and increase the debt still further.

Chairman Tony Fernandes said at the recent fans forum that having arrived after the 4-0 opening day defeat to Bolton in 2011/12, the first thing Neil Warnock wanted to know is what reinforcements he could add in the transfer window. And, as Fernandes pointed out, it’s been like that ever since — every transfer window it’s been perceived that a raft of new players need to be added to stave off a relegation threat or win promotion immediately. Go up now, already some three months behind Leicester City in the planning for next season, and it’s sure to be another deadline day scramble for the likes of Brede Hangelaand, Younes Kaboul, Peter Crouch, Jermain Defoe and all the rest of them.

Stay down, with 16 players out of contract and money tight, and Rangers might actually be forced to adopt a longer term strategy based around sensible acquisitions at affordable prices and wages from lower down the leagues, and developing their own youth players. I’ve read message board posts from supporters this season who have said, apparently seriously, that they’d rather Rangers be twelfth but showing some long term nouse and investing in youth, than fourth signing Yossi Benayoun et al. Easy to write on a message board that one.

I sense though, as the excitement and butterflies start to whirl around my stomach for the first time this season, that this is a debate for another day.

Let’s win the lottery first, before we start worrying about how we’re going to spend the money.

Links >>>Opposition Profile>>>History>>>Referee>>>Podcast>>>Travel Guide

Richard Langley is led away by team mates Marc Bircham and Richard Pacquette after being dismissed by Premier League referee Steve Bennett in the first-leg of QPR’s only previous play-off semi-final at Oldham Athletic in 2003. The harsh red card meant Langley was suspended for not only the second leg, but also the final in Cardiff after Rangers triumphed 2-1 on aggregate with a late goal from Paul Furlong at Loftus Road.

Friday

Team News: Much of the QPR team picks itself with Ale Faurlin, Jermaine Jenas and Matt Phillips on the long term injured list and Benoit Assou-Ekotto finally shooting his bolt with the Easter dismissal at Leicester which seems to have snapped even Harry Redknapp’s patience with the carefree left back. Robert Green will start in goal with Danny Simpson at right back and Joey Barton as one of two deep lying midfielders certainly. Redknapp is highly unlikely to start with Yun Suk-Young despite his recent excellent form because Clint Hill and Richard Dunne must both start and NedumOnuoha is in decent touch himself — expect Hill to be used at left back. Barton, for the away leg at least, is likely to be partnered by Karl Henry.

Further forward Charlie Austin is the first name on the team sheet as the lone striker with Ravel Morrison playing behind him. That leaves Junior Hoilett, Armand Traore and Yossi Benayoun to fit into two wide attacking positions and despite a very decent performance against Wigan at Loftus Road in the league I expect it will be the Israeli international who sits out — at least until Hoilett’s piano wire hamstring plays him up again.

Wigan’s top scorer Nick Powell (12 goals in 41 appearances) has recovered from tonsillitis to leave UweRosler with a fully fit squad to choose from. Goalkeeper Ali Al Habsi is likely to regain his place ahead of Scott Carson, according to the BBC.

Elsewhere: For a moment there you’d have been forgiven for wondering what Steve ‘Schteve’ McClaren thought he was playing at. Play-off semi-final, at Brighton, and you’re leaving Will Hughes and Patrick Bamford on the bench? What’s wrong with you man? And wait, what’s this, oh no come on Schteve, we talked about this, not the umbrella. Not the umbrella Scheteve.

Suddenly you wondered whether it had all been an elaborate act. The coaching job at QPR, the meticulous pre-season, the softly-spoken common-sense-laced interviews on QPR player, the 12-match unbeaten run at the start of the season, the meteoric rise after the return “home” to Derby. Maybe describing McClaren as an “insufferable arse” had been unfair as he used the England job as an excuse to have his teeth straightened and address Steven Gerrard publicly as “Stevie G” and then limped off to Holland with his tail between his legs to work on his Dutch pronunciation of Championsh League.

But no, here he was again, having a Scott Carson v Croatia moment all over again. A quarter of an hour in and Brighton could have had two penalties and were already a goal up. Oscar Garcia’s method of lulling the entire division into a false sense of security with a series of turgid, low-scoring matches that nobody noticed during the twenty seconds the Football League Show dedicated to them in the middle of the night, before crashing into the play-offs at the very last second on a blazing motorcycle seemed to be working.

Fools. Fools for doubting Schteve. Bow down before your tactical superior and his tufty-topped head. He’s a older, wiser, calmer Schteve now. Derby were level by the half hour — Coldplay's Chris Martin with a penalty — and they take a two one lead back to their retail park thanks to a shot from Martin that split the crossbar in two, hit goalkeeper Kuszczak on the back and rolled over the line.

Not only do QPR, if they can beat Wigan, face the potential horror of their former coach in the final at Wembley, QPR Play Book 2013/14 tucked neatly under his arm (you can all do your own Airplane, Famous Jewish Sports Legends pamphlet joke about that one), but Derby goalkeeper Lee Grant as well. Grant, a journeyman Championship goalkeeper, has never been shy of playing like the greatest footballer of all time against Rangers in his time with Burnley and Sheffield Wednesday and he warmed up for the potential decider against the R’s with a second half display last night that seemed to have more to do with witchcraft and sorcery than conventional goalkeeping skill. Each spectacular save more improbable than the last. Rangers’ only hope is that he downed the Man of the Match champagne in one before falling down a flight of steps.

Referee: Premier League referees have been handed both legs of this semi-final between the two teams attempting to make an immediate return to the big time after their respective relegations last season. First up is Mike Jones, who was in charge of QPR’s dire 1-0 win at home to Birmingham back in September. His extensive QPR case file and recent stats is available here.

On Monday it’s Mark Clattenburg, who refereed QPR’s only previous play-off victory against Oldham at Loftus Road in 2003, as well as the promotion-sealing win at Hillsborough a year later. Hopefully a decent omen.

Form

Wigan: When the Latics arrived at Loftus Road for the second league meeting of the season in late March they were riding the crest of an UweRosler-inspired wave — nine wins and a draw from their previous ten league and cup games. But they were beaten 1-0 at Loftus Road, thanks largely to the form of QPR goalkeeper Robert Green, and, potentially with one-eye on an FA Cup semi-final with Arsenal that went all the way to penalties, have not been in good nick ever since. They’ve won only three of their last eleven games, and lost three of the final four including a 2-0 defeat by lowly Blackpool last time out on this ground. These sides shared a dire goalless draw in the pouring rain when they first met before Christmas and overall at home this season Wigan have won 12, drawn seven and lost four of their home games — Brighton, Derby, Millwall and Blackpool the league victors here, two of them during Owen Coyle’s reign. The Millwall and Blackpool defeats ended a run of 13 matches unbeaten at the DW Stadium.- This will be Wigan’s sixty first match of the season and QPR’s fiftieth — if you care to read anything into that.

QPR: With the top two long since waved off into the sunset, and a healthy gap back to seventh place, QPR haven’t had a really competitive game for a couple of months now — arguably since the Wigan league game at Loftus Road. Harry Redknapp has used that time to rotate his squad wildly, returning players from injury and resting others. It’s no surprise, therefore, to find them in fairly erratic form as this game approaches — they’ve won three, drawn two and lost three since that 1-0 victory against the Latics at the end of March. They’ve lost only one of the last five though, and the final day 3-2 success at Barnsley halted a run of five defeats in the previous six away matches. Rangers are unbeaten in five matches against Wigan, and didn’t even concede a goal in the win and the draw against them in the regular season. Four of the six meetings between the sides on this ground have finished in a draw, with one win each in the other two fixtures. QPR haven’t won here in five attempts.

Betting:Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells us…

“The drama of the play-offs begins for QPR on Friday night when the R’s make the journey north to face Wigan. It’s fair to say this season has hardly filled many Rangers supporters with joy, but this is the play-offs — a chance to experience QPR in cup format, and God knows there hasn't been much of that done in recent times. I never got the opportunity to see QPR at Wembley in either of their two visits in the 1980's so the chance of seeing them there this year is one that excites, regardless of the way we get there.

“That is the key to the play offs. It really doesn't matter how you play - results are all important. Unfortunately for QPR, they come across one of the most form cup teams in the country at the moment. Wigan know how to win a cup tie. They've done it against much stronger teams than QPR recently. Their form going into these games is not great though, whereas the return to fitness of Charlie Austin couldn't have come at a better time. As I sat in the away end at the DW Stadium earlier this season, watching the two teams play out a largely uneventful scoreless draw, I couldn't help but feel if QPR played a little more direct and a little less tippy tap football in midfield, then Wigan were there for the taking. The Latics have changed manager to great effect since then of course.

“I worry about Redknapp’s team selection, I worry that Austin will 'pop' his shoulder again, I worry that Onuoha will be dropped to accommodate a much inferior centre half partnership… but there is no doubt there is little to choose from between these teams overall. This is backed up by the fact the bookies can’t decide. Some make Wigan favourites to qualify, some make QPR favourites to qualify- most can’t separate them. Looking at the betting in this game, Wigan are slight favourites at 5/4 with QPR available at 13/5. The draw is available at 23/10. With this representing a 30% chance it ends in a draw and three of the four last meetings between these teams have finished in draws (75%) and chances have been at a premium in both games this season, yielding only one goal. So my two bets aren’t anything surprising, but It’s hard to see past them.

Wigan v QPR Recommended Bets:

Draw - 23/10 (general)

Under 1.5 Goals - 2/1 (general)

QPR are currently a best price 3/1 for promotion in case you are interested. Personally I'm keeping my pennies in my pocket and hoping they'll come in handy during a day out at Wembley. it’s time to ignore what’s gone on before and enjoy the ride - these moments don't come along very often- and if you don't believe me, Just ask Clive Mendonca...

Prediction:Reigning Prediction League champion Mase tells us…

‎”It's here already. Our encounters with Wigan this year have been tight and cagey affairs. Tonight should be similar, both managers have been preparing their sides quietly and adroitly. I think Wigan go in as favourites for this leg at least, but neither club will want to be out of the tie before we reconvene next week. Wigan to come to W12 with a narrow lead to protect.

Mase’sPrediction:Wigan 2-1 QPR (and a late one at that)Scorer: Charlie Austin

LFW’s Prediction: Wigan 0-0 QPR.

The Twitter @loftforwords

Pictures — Action Images

Photo: Action Images

TacticalR added 22:17 - May 10 Thanks for your roundup. I share your sense of anxiety about going up with this team and repeating the mistakes of the past, but as you say, this is a debate for another day.
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