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Warnock's sacking adds unpredictability to relegation derby - preview
Sunday, 28th Dec 2014 00:07 by Clive Whittingham

Having denied Neil Warnock his first return to Loftus Road since his sacking three years ago, Crystal Palace are now hoping to snap QPR's wonderful home form with new manager syndrome.

Queens Park Rangers (16th) v Crystal Palace (18th)

Premier League >>> Sunday December 28, 2014 >>> Kick Off 15.00!! >>> Loftus Road, London, W12

Ordinarily, the news that the first Premier League team to sack its manager this season is the one about to play a crucial relegation six pointer against Queens Park Rangers would be greeted with an exasperated sigh and another pint of ale or three by those of a blue and white persuasion in West London.

Here they come, the team with one away win all season, the team with one win from their last 12 games, the team with only three goals scored in the last six (and two of them from the penalty spot) suddenly remembering that they can try a bit harder, run about a bit more, play some half decent football, score a few goals, now there’s the potential of a new manager who may ship them out if they don’t. Footballers are arseholes aren’t they? ‘New manager syndrome’ into evidence as exhibit A.

But, on this occasion, have Palace played directly into QPR’s hands?

You can see the logic of Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish, who took a brief break from sweeping his fringe out of his eyes to deliver the bad news to Neil Warnock this morning. Conventional wisdom says sacking a manager during such a congested bit of the fixture list is ridiculous, but with matches against fellow strugglers QPR and Villa to come, what value could new manager syndrome potentially provide for the Eagles?

But then who in the footballing world would have been more determined to win this match against QPR on Sunday than Neil Warnock? He was the big anomaly in a game you would otherwise make Rangers favourites to win. Given the way he was sacked, three years ago almost to the day, and what happened to him and QPR after that, was there any way Neil Warnock would not come back to Loftus Road for the first time desperate to run a sword through his former employer?

Instead, it’s caretaker manager Keith Millen, with Tactical Tim Sherwood waiting in the wings, polishing the special trophy he made for himself for getting a reasonable win average at Tottenham when he was left in charge. For a bit. Millen has lost four and drawn one of his seven matches in caretaker charge of Palace previously.

Given that Neil Warnock inherited a QPR team with more loans than the manager was allowed to pick in a matchday squad - including Marcus Bent, Tamas Priskin and Matt Hill - after league defeats to Peterborough, Scunthorpe and others and promoted the club back to the Premier League for the first time in 15 years after less than 18 months in charge it’s a wonder there wasn’t a statue built of him doing that weird little fist pump thing he does in the middle of Batman Close.

But the QPR fans seem strangely divided on Warnock, as today’s sacking has shown with various message board and social media debates. On the one hand, Warnock won three of his first six away games in the Premier League with QPR - results which kept the club up. Since he left, two different managers have managed only two away wins in 37 attempts. That’s right, in the three years since Warnock left we still haven’t matched the three away wins he got in four months in charge in the Premier League. But then he’d only won one home game - albeit against Chelsea - by this stage. QPR had 17 points after 18 matches and were fourth bottom at this point in 2011/12, and they have 17 points after 18 matches and are fifth bottom now.

People, rightly, point to his hands being tied in the transfer market after promotion by Flavio Briatore refusing to spend money while he was trying to sell the club. How different things may have been had Warnock been allowed to sign Ashley Williams, Wayne Routledge, Kyle Naughton and others when he’d wanted to. Instead he scraped together DJ Campbell, Jay Bothroyd, Kieron Dyer, Danny Gabbidon and other no-hopers only to then discard them when Tony Fernandes arrived right at the end of the transfer window. QPR’s desperation and new found money made them a sucker, and Warnock lumbered the club with high-earners like Luke Young, Joey Barton, Shaun Wright-Phillips and Anton Ferdinand - none of whom had the ability, fitness or mindset to back up the extraordinary contracts QPR handed them. Warnock carries the can for that in the eyes of many, though it was certainly Fernandes demanding big names. Either way, the signings of Wright-Phillips and Barton, on such vastly superior money to the existing squad, proved particularly divisive, not helped by either player’s attitude, and Warnock soon lost a dressing room that had been the best bit of the promotion winning side.

Warnock’s Premier League record at Sheffield United, QPR and now Crystal Palace is poor. He’s continuously tempted out of retirement to try and prove himself in the top flight, and he keeps failing. But would he have done worse than Mark Hughes did subsequently at Loftus Road? Would the club be in such a financial state now?

Tittle tattle for match previews and pre-match pub discussions only at the end of the day. The relevant stuff can be found on the league table - win here and QPR can put five points between them and Palace, and in all likelihood Burnley as well as they go to Man City tomorrow. Lose, and the R’s are going to have to try something radical like… getting a point or two from away matches.

Links >>> Warnock’s unhappy last hurrah - opposition profile >>> No laughing matter - interview >>> QPR hit six - history >>> Jones in charge - referee

Chris Kiwomya celebrates his second, QPR’s third, in a 6-0 rout of Crystal Palace on the final day of the 1998/99 season. Gerry Francis’ side needed a win to stay in the First Division, and Palace proved ideal opposition in the midst of the Mark Goldberg-collapse and scandal. Tony Scully, George Kulscar and Tim Breaker also scored (do not adjust your sets) before Kiwomya completed his hat trick. Palace had two men sent off.

Sunday

Team News: QPR will almost certainly recall Leroy Fer to their midfield, and Joey Barton may also be fit, so Jordon Mutch’s insipid display at Arsenal on Boxing Day is likely to cost him his place in the side. Expect Rangers to revert back to 4-4-2 and recall Bobby Zamora to the attack from the start with Eduardo Vargas moved back to the right flank. Armand Traore, on thin ice as it was, should, in theory, not play for the club again with the January transfer window looming, but with Yannick Bolasie’s pace down the right making Clint Hill a risky option at left back, Yun Suk-Young out for a month with an ankle injury, and Warnock’s sacking removing the most likely suitor for Traore’s services he may yet keep his place here. Doubt it though.

Keith Millen is back in temporary charge of Palace so it remains to be seen if he springs any surprises or deviates from the well-worn 4-2-3-1 system the Eagles have been playing with this season. Influential pair Bolasie and Mile Jedinak are both absent through January (African Nations Cup and Asia Cup respectively) and Bolasie’s partner is about to give birth, but both should still feature here. Marouane Chamakh is out with a hamstring injury.

Elsewhere: Another swift blast of Premier League fixtures here, sandwiched in between the traditional Christmas and New Year games for reasons known only to the fixture computer. Sunderland boss Gus Poyet says it’s a disagrace, and he would know. Dirty boy.

Sunderland are at Villa this Sunday in a match QPR would like to finish in a mass brawl resulting in points deductions for both sides. Likewise Leicester’s trip to Tigers Tigers Rah Rah Rah where a defeat would surely leave Nigel Pearson clinging on by his finger nails as Tony Pulis loiters with increasing intent. Likewise Alan Irvine at West Brom if they lose to Meticulous Mark and the Taffia at the Britannia Stadium. These managerial changes could yet prove an unsettling factor in what is starting to look like quite a staid league table. One would think/hope Burnley are on hiding to nothing at Man City.

That leaves only the “games that matter” involving the “big clubs” and Ed Chamberlain would no doubt tell you we have a “crucial” and “extraordinary” weekend of Premier League action ahead. Who would have thought, for example, that Tottenham would be playing Louis Van Gaal, in a league game, at 12.00, exclusively live? Will time continue as we know it afterwards? One can only hope and pray so because then it’s Southampton v Big Racist John and the Boys. And then it’s Pards Pardew against Everton. On Monday night Brendan Rodgers takes his men of Liverpool together collectively as one united unit to his previous collective together as one whole unit together always BFF Swansea City. All on the television. All at weird and wonderful kick off times that pay skant regard to the supporters who want to travel and, err, support their team.

I’ve missed one haven’t I? Big Fat Sam’s Big Fat Brand of Entertaining Football battering Arsene Wenger’s tippy tappy Johnny Foreigners into submission would be it. That’s at 15.00.

Referee: Given that Mike Jones ruined QPR’s best away performance so far this season (not a stiff competition) by awarding Chelsea a late penalty to decide the game at Stamford Bridge in November, he’s perhaps not a welcome face at Loftus Road this Sunday. But then as an easily influenced, often bullied, simpering fool, perhaps he might be an asset to a home side with a noisy home backing. I won’t hold my breath. Previous offences listed here.

Form

QPR: QPR have exactly the same number of points - 17 - as they did after 18 matches of the 2011/12 season when Neil Warnock was sacked. They’d been won in very different ways back then though, with just the one win at Loftus Road against Chelsea and three on the road against Wolves, Everton and Stoke along with a succession of draws. This year Rangers have lost all nine of their away league games but won five at home including four of the last five with the other finishing as a draw. For those who say QPR need to start winning away to stay up - I count myself among you - it’s not strictly true. Having sacked Warnock QPR added just one single point to that 17 away from home in the second half of the season, but won six at home to survive. Given that the home matches after this one are Swansea, Man Utd, Southampton, Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea, Everton and Newcastle, you’d think that a tall order to repeat, but Swansea, Arsenal and Spurs were among the six sides beaten last time. By contrast to Palace’s record against fellow strugglers (more shortly) QPR have beaten five of the other seven teams in the bottom eight, losing only to Hull with Palace still to come. Charlie Austin has scored in the last five matches at Loftus Road.

Palace: The Eagles have won just three times all season and have only picked up one victory in the last 12 games. Only one of those wins has been away from home, at Everton in September, and since then they’ve lost three and drawn three on the road. The Eagles have only won once (Leicester, 2-0) against teams in the bottom eight this term - Sunderland, Villa and Hull won, West Brom, and Burnley got draws. Palace have only scored three goals in their last six matches, and two of those were penalties. They have also only won one of their last 15 London derbies away from home. Keith Millen’s record as caretaker manager at Palace is P7 W2 D1 L4 across two separate spells.

Predicition: Reigning Prediction League champion WestonSuperR, still working over Christmas, tells us…

“After the usual dreadful awful performance, this time at Arsenal, we are now faced with another crucial home match. If any of our away form begins to seep into our matches at Loftus Road then we have a problem and this certainly seemed to be the case in the first 20 minutes v West Brom. QPR need to start on the front foot because there is no doubt Palace will be up for this and recognise the importance of a match between these two relegation candidates.

“This could go either way and I expect it to be high on action and goals in a similar way to the Leicester and West Brom games. Palace turning up with two quick, skilful wingers is a frightening prospect and one that could cause us of problems so I think it's a 'toss of a coin' result but I'm going to remain positive and suggest we will get another desperately needed win.”

John’s Prediction: QPR 2-1 Palace. Scorer - Charlie Austin

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 3-1 Palace. Scorer - Charlie Austin

The Twitter @loftforwords

Pictures - Action Images

Photo: Action Images



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hoops_legend added 09:24 - Dec 28
Thank you clive.. spot on rsgarding warnock. Absolutly amazing what he did for us in such a short space turning us from a bunch of loan players to a real team. That summer you felt he was backed jnto a corner and NONE of his new signings worked out... Faurlin got injurec :(

His old players taarabt.. helguson... derry... were the reason we stayed up (plus cisse) So he prob would feel he deserves a statue

Imagine where we woild be without him? I would guess we may have got relegated.. gone into admin and flavio sell the scraps. Could have been the next pompey. We still could!
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francisbowles added 10:46 - Dec 28
Superb articles Clive, it must have been harder for you with the late Warnock sacking.

Thanks for everything, has really set us up for this afternoon.

U Rrrrrrrs
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TacticalR added 12:56 - Dec 28
Thanks for your preview.

The left-back dilemna is a killer. The choice is between Traoré, who by the time he's worked out what is happening his opponent has gone (and in any case is always likely to do something lunatic), or Clint Hill who openly admits he's too slow to chase after his opponent when he's at left-back. The only hope is that if Hill does play he can use his nous to keep track of his opponent.
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