A perfect storm on the banks of the Trent — Preview Friday, 8th Jan 2016 23:22 by Clive Whittingham QPR’s take their dreadful record in the FA Cup to a ground they’ve never won on in 30 attempts on Saturday to face a Nottingham Forest side who’ve suffered in the first round just as often. A replay surely beckons. Nottingham Forest v Queens Park RangersFA Cup Third Round >>> Saturday January 9, 2016 >>> Kick Off 15.00 >>> Weather — Cold, light rain getting heavier later >>> City Ground, Nottingham Rarely has a football match thrown up such a stark, unusual, frankly faintly ridiculous set of numbers as this weekend's FA Cup Third Round tie between Nottingham Forest and Queens Park Rangers. Despite recent history spent almost entirely in the top two divisions of English football, these sides have been like cheap tea bags when it comes to knockout competitions — they always fall apart in the cup. They are currently tied second, behind only Plymouth Argyle, for the most Third Round eliminations in the FA Cup's history — 46 each to Plymouth's 49. QPR have clocked up a good few of those in the last two decades. Trevor Sinclair's fabled bicycle kick sealing a 3-2 home win against Barnsley on January 25 1997 was not only the last time the R's went beyond the Fourth Round of this competition, they've only managed to win four ties since then and all through the use of replays. In 1999/00 a replay win at Torquay set up a Fourth Round tie at Charlton where Rangers were beaten 1-0 by Rob Styles. In 2000/01 First Division QPR salvaged a 3-3 draw at lower league Luton having trailed 3-1, then beat them in extra time of the replay only to lose 6-0 to Arsenal in round four. In 2012 MK Dons were beaten after a replay, only for Chelsea to win 1-0 at Loftus Road. A year later, Harry Redknapp's side surprisingly won at West Brom thanks to an even more surprising goal from Jay Bothroyd of all people — MK Dons delivered a sound thrashing from two divisions below in the next round. Other than that, Rangers have exited the world's oldest knockout competition at the first possibly opportunity to the following opposition in this order: Middlesbrough H (97/98, Third Round replay), Huddersfield H (98/99, Third Round), Swansea A (01/02, First Round), Vauxhall Motors H (02/03, First Round replay), Grimsby A (03/04, First Round), Forest H (04/05, Third Round), Blackburn A (05/06, Third Round), Luton A (06/07, Third Round replay), Chelsea A (07/08, Third Round), Burnley A (08/09, Third Round replay), Sheff Utd H (09/10, Third Round replay), Blackburn A (10/11, Third Round), Everton A (13/14, Third Round) and Sheff Utd H (14/15, Third Round). QPR have therefore won four matches out of 31 across 20 years, scoring just nine goals in that time and conceding 52. Five of the defeats were to teams from at least one division lower. Forest for their part have lost to League One opposition in two of the last three seasons at this stage — Rochdale last year as Stuart Pearce clung to employment, and Oldham at home in 2013. Rangers should be reasonably confident of arresting that appalling record, going to a team only just above them in the Championship that has taken to openly ceding possession and field position in recent games in the hope of counter attacking against opponents. Forest have been difficult to beat — unbeaten in eight — but have drawn five of those matches. But it's not just the FA Cup hoodoo which counts against the R's here. Apart from the new comers and new builds, The City Ground is the one ground in the Football League QPR have never won at. They've tried 30 times, losing 18 and drawing 12. Even in recent promotion seasons, Harry Redknapp's side lost 2-0 here while Neil Warnock's class of 2010/11 was held to a draw mostly thanks to the referee's failure to award an obvious penalty for a first half foul on Tommy Smith. Rangers have conceded four goals or more in a game on this ground on six separate occasions. New manager Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink is finding wins hard to come by anywhere at the moment — none in six attempts so far, with performances regressing in that time. Oddly he says the onset of cup football into the fixture list is "unwelcome" and is promising an "experimental" line up on Saturday — which is football speak for the kids and the crocks. You have to wonder, if not now, when QPR will ever have a bash at winning a cup match. In each of the last five seasons the Hoops have either been fighting for promotion or against relegation, when cup football can be a hindrance by clogging the fixtures and providing extra opportunities for key players to be injured — Ale Faurlin and Jamie Mackie both suffered season ending injuries in cup matches in recent years. But this season Hasselbaink's team almost couldn't be mathematically further away from both promotion and relegation at the same time — 11 points from the play-offs and palpably not good enough to make it up, nine points from the drop zone with probably just about enough to avoid sinking into it. What's really to be lost by trying to have a cup run? Imagine a fifth round tie against a vulnerable Premier League outfit at Loftus Road on a Saturday night — it could be exactly what the crowd needs, as silence, frustration and anger threatens to engulf the faithful as they sit through one dreary Championship fixture after another with no win in sight. Mind you, if "experimental line-up" means a merciful end to picking the big names and high earners — Rob Green, Sandro, Leroy Fer etc — and a chance finally for the likes of Massimo Luongo, Ben Gladwin and Alex Smithies who should represent the sustainable future of the club then it might be no bad thing. Grant Hall has been the Player of the Season so far, having been the least heralded summer signing, brought in cheap, on a small contract, challenged to prove he was worth more and given a prolonged chance to do so. Exactly, exactly, what QPR should be doing. Who knows how many of the other punts we took last summer might have turned out just as good? Not us, we never pick them. The Smithies case is particular interesting. It has transpired this week, through the often excellent Dave McIntyre, that Rob Green has a clause in his contract granting him an automatic renewal if he reaches 30 appearances this year. He's currently on 25. Quite apart from Green's age, and current shambolic form, Rangers will not be able to afford to keep his likes around the club if they're to stand any hope of complying with Financial Fair Play for this season and beyond. An automatic extension would by a minor disaster. It has been said, with some justification, that allowing him to tick down until just five matches before that deadline is met, meaning that Smithies now has to stay fit and in form for the rest of the season or leave us spending some more money looking for a loaned goalkeeper, is typically short-sighted. Particularly as Green has been so terrible of late — Opta has him down as committing ten mistakes leading to goals since the start of last season, more than any other keeper in the top two divisions — and Smithies probably should have been given a chance weeks ago. Personally I see it as a sign the club is improving. Previously this was the sort of thing QPR would forget all about until they come to release Green at the end of the season only to find they're not allowed. The players a good few of us would like to see coming into the team more regularly will need time to settle. Particularly Gladwin, who has never played at this level before, and Smithies, who has looked nervous on his fleeting outings previously. There's little, or nothing, to be gained, and no judgements to be reached, about any of them if they're simply slung together all at once in some hotch potch collection of players for one game the management openly admit they're not bothered about only to then be dropped again the following match. It offers them little or no platform to perform on, and potentially damages their chances of establishing themselves at QPR further. But if this, and Hasselbaink's admission last week that Rangers shouldn't even be thinking about the play-offs, is the start of a prolonged, considered, patient chance for several of these players to come into the team — and several of the big names who have cost us so much and let us down so badly to start making their way out — then maybe it might not be such a bad FA Cup experience in Nottingham after all. Links >>> Affects of FFP — Opposition Profile >>> Best of a difficult situation — Interview >>> Lenient Langford is back — Referee >>> Diakite does the strut — Podcast >>> Ian Wright’s penalty miss — History >>> Two quick trips to Nottingham — Travel Guide We’ll just keep playing this in the meantime I guess… SaturdayTeam News: Ale Faurlin’s succession of ACL injuries started at this stage of the 2011/12 competition at MK Dons and I doubt he’ll be risked here. Forest have a similar story of their own with Chris Cohen who made the latest of his three comebacks in the league at Charlton last week and, again, is unlikely to feature more than fleetingly here as he feels his way back to fitness. Ben Gladwin made the long overdue return from his loan at Swindon this week and will start for Rangers. Alex Smithies is also almost certain to replace Robert Green in goal but other than that is anybody’s guess. Forest played the Southern European loan market well in the summer and have returned there again this week to sign Slovenian full back Bojan Jokic on loan from Villarreal to cover for long term absentee Daniel Pinillos. Surprisingly, struggling Aston Villa have also decided to re-loan them Gary Gardner, rather than picking him for their God awful side themselves. Britt Asombalonga and Matty Fryatt are both still weeks away from a return from their long term issues. Elsewhere: Exeter holding Liverpool to a draw, and earning a lucrative replay, got things off to a great start on Friday evening, and don’t rule out Gareth Ainsworth’s Wycombe going one better against a hapless Aston Villa side on Saturday lunchtime. The Third Round is much of a muchness draw wise other than that, though the decision to televise Man Utd and Chelsea at home to League One opposition shows a fundamental lack of understanding of the competition in the pursuit of the biggest ratings. Far better to televise Eastleigh, with one Lee Cook playing left wing, at home to the Championship’s bottom side Bolton, where there’s a genuine chance of an upset. Or Newport, revitalised in League Two under John Sheridan, hosting Championship Blackburn who have lost the last three after an initial resurgence under Paul Lambert. Watch out also for Stoke, with a lot of fixtures on their plate at the moment, heading to Doncaster who have League One Player of the Month Andy Williams leading the attack. Brentford v Walsall is one of those cute quirks of the draw this competition often throws up — Dean Smith having left the latter to take over the former just last month. Likewise the Steve Evans pie-off between Leeds and Rotherham. Don’t expect Sunderland to make too much effort at Arsenal, nor perennial early-round exiters Newcastle at Watford, but 4,000 Palace fans heading down to Southampton should make for a decent tie between two sides who really should be fancying themselves as potential winners of this trophy this year and be selecting a team as such. Sunday sees managerless Swansea go to League Two highflyers Oxford — another game gagging to be televised if only we weren’t so obsessed with all Premier League ties plus whatever Man Utd and Big Racist John and The Boys are up to. Instead, enjoy Tottenham and Leicester trying not to injure each other. Referee: Famous last words but one thing QPR should be able to escape from this without is a lot of suspensions. Oliver Langford, who has already taken charge of the R’s at Yeovil and Hull this season, is a notoriously lenient official (I’ve seen this film before) who has only issued one red card all season so far. His full QPR case history and stats is available here. FormForest: Aside from the FA Cup record covered extensively in the intro, the two teams currently stack up like this… Forest are unbeaten in eight, but have drawn five of those. Their last three games have finished 1-1, and they’ve taken the lead in all three of those. At The City Ground this year they’ve won five, drawn four and lost three but are unbeaten in seven since Hull City won 1-0 here in October. Middlesbrough and Cardiff are the other sides to win here in the league while Walsall triumphed 4-3 in the early rounds of the League Cup back in August. QPR: Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink has drawn four of his six games in charge so far but is yet to win. Rangers are in dire form really, just two wins from 12, three from 15 and four from 20 dating back to August. Away from home they won three of their first four road trips — at Wolves, Yeovil and Huddersfield — but have won only one of nine since, at Reading. Hull’s last minute winner at Loftus Road is the second time in three matches Rangers have lost a game in injury time and the sixth time this season a goal has been shopped in the final five minute to turn a win to a draw or a draw to a defeat. Prediction: If you accept that QPR, apparently, see the cup as an unwelcome distraction once more — although what on earth it’s distracting us from is hard to tell — a draw here would actually be worse than a defeat, because it provides another match at a time when the Championship is in full on Saturday Tuesday Saturday swing once more. A draw is, of course, the best we’ve ever managed on this ground. Forest, meanwhile, are finding their new counter attacking style makes them difficult to beat, but yields a good few stalemates into the bargain. It’s all pointing one way. See you a week on Tuesday. LFW’s Prediction: Forest 0-0 QPR. No Scorer. The Twitter @loftforwords Pictures — Action Images Photo: Action Images Please report offensive, libellous or inappropriate posts by using the links provided.
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