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Fixing the roof - Preview
Tuesday, 8th Nov 2022 11:40 by Clive Whittingham

QPR's form, and goalscoring, has tailed off slightly as the World Cup break looms, and though the R's are still fifth there's a couple of Mick Beale's summer quotes that come to mind as we into a "typical bloody Rangers" banana skin at home to Huddersfield tonight.

QPR (9-4-6 LWWLDL 5th) v Huddersfield (4-3-11 LLDWLL 24th)

Lancashire and District Senior League >>> Tuesday November 8, 2022 >>> Kick Off 19.45 >>> Weather — Dark and damp >>> Loftus Road, London, W12

As the rip-roaring October form subsides slightly into a scoreless November, and the HMS Piss The League memes are quietly moored back in the dry dock, I’m drawn to a couple of quotes Mick Beale has used a fair bit since he took over at Loftus Road in the summer.

The first is his stated aim for the season.

For years since relegation from the Premier League QPR people wouldn’t be drawn any further than wanting to “be competitive” while the wage bill was halved and then halved again. That was until last summer when, after a terrific end to the 2020/21 season, Mark Warburton was emboldened enough to say it would be treating the supporters like idiots to say that was the aim for 2021/22 and the top six had to be the goal. It’s not often managers happily up the pressure on themselves and their team like that, and I wonder whether in hindsight Warbs regretted ratcheting things up rather than down given the way his team folded through the closing months of the campaign.

Beale was bullish in his summer interview with LFW when he said he hadn’t come to QPR to finish in the bottom half of the table and play a few kids. “I’m not accepting fifteenth, sixteenth. I haven’t come to QPR to finish fifteenth, sixteenth. I’m going for the top half as a bare minimum, and kick on, and do all the things you’ve asked. I want all the cake, and I want to eat it.” But, other than that, when asked what a successful season looks like here in 2022/23 all he would say is: “I want to get to March in the shake-up. Then you can come back on in March and ask me then. Everything before that doesn’t matter. That’s about building to get to the international break in March with a chance of doing something. That’s a successful season.”

In theory, QPR were in that position last March. I’m as sick or writing it as you of reading it but they could have gone second with a win at Blackburn in February, and did go fourth with a win at Luton as late as March. In practice though, the team was busted, the Willock and Marshall injuries picked up at Forest that week broke the camel’s back, the mood and relationships behind the scenes were increasingly toxic, and we slid miles out of contention. Several other clubs did likewise — Blackburn and Coventry set some early pace with us, and fell away in similar ways to ourselves. Meanwhile the play-offs were contested, and eventually won, by teams and a team that came on strong with form and fitness at the right point in the season — Huddersfield our opponent tonight, Luton, Sheff Utd and chiefly Nottingham Forest.

I think at QPR we often get carried away, in both directions, with little spurts and bursts of results in the autumn. Jimmy Floyd Hasslebaink got his team ridiculously fit and over-trained in his summer here and it duly hit the ground running in August with a big home win against Leeds and success on the road at Cardiff and Wigan. He was being asked about play-offs and promotions at a subsequent fans forum, a week before we lost 6-0 at home to Newcastle, a month before he wound up in a Daily Telegraph sting, and six weeks before he was fired. Steve McClaren beat Ipswich, Sheff Wed and Aston Villa to nil in one autumn week, and when we beat a woeful Tractor Boys side again in the run up to Christmas there were, again, musings about a top six push. Both those teams were a million miles away come March.

There are no ‘must win’ games at this time of the year, and no defeat is catastrophic. That looks like it’s going to be especially true this year where although Burnley have only lost twice, the rest of the top six have lost four, five and six games each already, and Blackburn are second with eight defeats — last year the top two lost ten and eight games respectively all season, Norwich and Watford lost seven and nine the year before, Leeds and West Brom nine and seven, Norwich and Sheff Utd six and nine, Wolves and Cardiff seven and ten and so on. It’s about being in a position to contend in March, and having a squad fit and firing enough to follow through on that promise, carrying momentum into the business end of the season. No reason to think QPR, currently fifth, won’t make good on Beale’s March aim.

The second thing, however, is about “mending the roof when the sun shines”. QPR were winning, and in the top six, at this point last season just as they are this. They beat Huddersfield here 1-0 almost a year ago to the day, following straight on from a 2-0 home victory against Luton and with a 2-1 win at Derby to come next. Were they playing well though? This year’s World Cup break coincides just about with our three weeks off last year for a Covid outbreak, and when we came back from that last Christmas there were tight, tense victories against Bristol City, Birmingham, West Brom and Coventry. All felt like major moments, like exactly the sort of grind-it-out, find-a-way wins teams that go on to achieve things come up with. But we didn’t play well in any of those games, and actually at Coventry and Birmingham in particular I thought we were fairly dreadful. There was a whitewash of a dire Reading side to come, and reassure us further, but that team was starting to cling on by its finger nails, a world away from the side that was swatting aside Watford, Brentford and Bournemouth types the previous spring, and a collapse was still to come. While always being careful not to criticise his predecessor, who left him a very good foundation here, Beale has felt brave enough to say that, having talked to the players about what happened, the general theory and perception is QPR were results happy, but not performance happy, and they didn’t do enough to correct the latter because the former remained fairly good, until it was too late.

Beale’s Rangers are a very different team. Not only has the back three gone, but if we assume Laird-Balogun-Clarke-Salter-Paal is his preferred back four then that’s an entirely new defence. Both full backs have been changed, and they’re crucial to the way we attack. The formation is new. We’ve potentially caught a few cold in the opening months. There’s just a suggestion though, that in the last few weeks, including in the Wigan game which we actually won, that without using the lazy cliched criticism of being “found out”, teams are much more switched on to how we play now and where the threats are coming from. Early in the season teams seemed to be choosing whether they tried to take the full backs out of our play and subsequently risked leaving space for Illy and Willy, or vice versa — they struggled to do both, and in the case of Middlesbrough and a couple of others often ended up doing neither. Recently though, and West Brom did it best of all, teams have been able to force Laird and Paal back while also crowding the tens. No goals now in three and a half games.

The results and league position are fine. We’ll win, we’ll lose, we need to get a bit better at treating those imposters just the same, and just making sure we’re in contention come March and in a better physical and mental state to take advantage of that than we were last time. But I’m interested to see what this new manager with the glowing reputation as an innovator does by way of roof fixing in the two games this week.

Links >>> Living nightmare — Interview >>> Big opening day — History >>> Ward nominally in charge — Referee >>> Official website >>> Ground Guide >>> Down at the Mac — Forum >>> And he Takes That Chance — Podcast

Below the fold

Team News: QPR average 1.81 points a game with Jake Clarke-Salter in the team, the best mean of any of the four centre backs used this season, so his return from a knee injury tonight will be most welcome, particularly given the struggles of Rob Dickie and Leon Balogun on Saturday. Jimmy Dunne was also back, fit, and on the bench at the weekend so it’ll be interesting to see whether one or both get a recall here, or if the back three system might come into play with Mick Beale promising to “flip it up” with a few changes following a weak defeat to the Baggies and three games without a goal. Luke Amos, who scored in both games with the Terriers last season, is likely to sit out with a tight hamstring, but Taylor Richards is back to bolster the midfield. Stefan Johansen, unfortunately, is out until after the World Cup.

The bad news keeps coming for Huddersfield who have now lost Japanese international centre back Yuta Nakayama for the season with a busted Achilles. That’s a devastating blow for the summer arrival from PEC Zwolle who was due to participate in his first World Cup this month. David Kasumu picked up a fifth yellow card of the season just the wrong side of the 19-game cut off point at the weekend so he misses out tonight, leaving a threadbare midfield with Jonathan Hogg out with a calf knock and Etienne Camara also now sidelined. Matty Pearson and Tyreece Simpson are long term absentees, Tom Lees has the rona, Pat Jones doesn’t fancy it and Tino Anjorin is ill. Ollie Turton, another summer arrival, blew his knee out against Millwall a week ago so you won’t see him until the clocks change again. Other than that they’re in good shape.

Elsewhere: It’s a catch up round of eight games in hand this evening — fixtures lost from the weekend of the Queen’s death.

With Ralph Hasenhüttl finally dismissed at Southampton at the weekend the Saints have moved quickly to approach Luton for permission to speak to their manager Nathan Jones. If they can stand being in the room with him for more than five minutes — far from a given — then he’s the odds on favourite for that job and for all his ‘us against the world’ ‘little old Luton Town’ rhetoric would be the second time he’s deserted them for a better offer. “Some may say that's disrespectful and they are welcome to that opinion, I don't see it as disrespectful and some will say this is the kind of thing I said I wouldn't do but I'd say I never said this is anything that I would do so that's a distortion of the facts and I've been honest my whole life and they've, if I may say so, they've been dishonest there and that's fine I'll keep my views to myself, to be honest, but if they want to behave that way, well, that's on them and that's fine and perhaps they'd say I've said things and they are welcome to think that but I will say,” said Jones, perhaps. Ironically, tonight the Hatters travel to Stoke, where he pissed off to the first time, crashed and burned, and had to come crawling back. Shades of Martin Allen and Barnet developing here — he said he’d changed mum.

Two young managers starting out in their careers are getting their feet under the desks at Championship clubs. Michael Carrick has a win and a defeat to his name now from his first two games at Middlesbrough prior to tonight’s trip to Blackpool, while early work on defensive shape in training at Hull paid immediate dividends for Liam Rosenior as they were able to grind out a nil nil at Millwall despite playing a chunk of the match with ten men after somebody pulled the string out the back of their Oscar Estupinan Karate Chop Action toy. Cardiff away for assignment number two tonight.

Birmingham v Swanselona will be an intriguing contrast in styles, Sheffield Red Stripe have a banker home against injury ravaged Rotherham in the South Yorkshire derby at Bramall Lane, and you’d fancy Coventry to continue their ascent up the table with a home win against Wigan Warriors too. It’s more difficult to know what to expect from Salven Bilic’s Watford from one week to the next at the moment — three defeats in four, followed by three straight wins, and then a home loss to Coventry. They have the similarly erratic and unpredictable Reading at home.

Referee: If you’ve been finding the refereeing irritating of late then fear not, Gavin Ward is nominally in charge this evening. Details.

Form

QPR: After eight wins in 11 games had lifted QPR into contention, Rangers are now three games without a win, and three and a half without a goal. Saturday’s home defeat to West Brom snapped an unbeaten run of six at Loftus Road, and three straight victories. It was, however, already the third time this season that Rangers have been stopped from scoring in nine home games so far. They haven’t scored in open play since the Cardiff game, with both goals against Wigan coming from corners. Ilias Chair scored three goals in his first eight games of the season but is now without a goal in 12 appearances. Lyndon Dykes is set for his hundredth appearance for the club — he has 26 goals in 99 appearances. Chuba Akpom’s goal for Middlesbrough at the weekend knocks Chris Willock off the top of the goals-per-game chart for the Championship — 0.76 for the Boro forward, 0.75 for Chrissy. QPR are still to lose when Willock scores for them — W13 D3. Huddersfield have been something of a pain in the arse for QPR since we returned to the Championship in 2015/16. Last year’s 1-0 win here was the only victory Rangers have managed against the Terriers in nine attempts. Town had won five of the six prior to last year’s 1-0 and 2-2 — Luke Amos scored in both meetings.

Huddersfield It’s been a disastrous start to the season for Huddersfield who have already lost 12 and won just four of their 19 games played. They’ve won just one of the last six, losing four including the last two, and have scored just two goals across those half dozen games. They’ve played eight away games so far and are yet to win — defeats to Birmingham, Bristol City, Norwich, Reading, Rotherham and Blackburn and draws at Luton and Boro. They’re the only team in the league without an away win to their name, and they’ve scored just seven goals on the road so far — three of those came in one 3-3 draw at Luton. As far as new manager bounce goes, Mark Fotheringham has two wins, two draws and five defeats to his name since taking over at the end of September. Danny Ward and Jordan Rhodes are joint top scorers here with three apiece.

Prediction: We’re once again indebted to The Art of Football for agreeing to sponsor our Prediction League and provide prizes. You can get involved by lodging your prediction here or sample the merch from our sponsor’s QPR collection here. Let’s see what last year’s champion Cheesy thinks this week…

“I can't be the only one who is getting a bit anxious with how teams are shutting us out. When our wing backs can't get forward, we look a mid-table side. We missed Stefan on Saturday for many reasons, but our corners both for and against were shambolic against WBA. If we lose against Huddersfield, I fear for the twitter meltdown. Beale, in most of his video interviews, talks about starting matches on the front foot, but recently we have rode our luck. What is going to be interesting is seeing Beale’s reaction in the coming matches to how teams are shutting us out. I'm going to stay positive for this one and go for a Rangers win.”

Cheesy’s Prediction: QPR 2-0 Huddersfield. Scorer — Ilias Chair

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 2-0 Huddersfield. Scorer — Lyndon Dykes

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062259 added 16:27 - Nov 8
Of course there’s no such thing as a “must-win” game at this stage of the season, but this is the very epitome of a “really-would-like-to-win-more-than-any-other-so-far-this-season” game
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TacticalR added 17:09 - Nov 8
Thanks for your preview.

It feels like it's gone quite flat quite quickly, although we did put in a decent performance against Norwich.

The problem is that if we can't threaten, then the opposition is going gradually going to exert more pressure on us, and we end up waiting to lose.

It's not the end of the world if Dykes can't score, as long as we can get other players into the box. In theory that's Chair and Willock through the middle, or Laird and Dykes round the edges. Perhaps a goal will instil a bit of belief. Or perhaps Beale will come up with something new.

From what you are saying, this season is shaping up as a test case to answer the question: 'Were last season's problems down to Warburton, or were they down to objective factors such as injuries and squad depth?'
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