| Match report. Bounce game... on 19:36 - Dec 1 with 2566 views | fitzochris |
A few interesting snippets there. Lewis Alessandra played and scored, the lad Massanka sounds promising for them, and Matt Gilks was in goal for them. |  |
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| Match report. Bounce game... on 20:00 - Dec 1 with 2509 views | boromat |
Also news that Billy is back from his extended loan. Is that early? |  |
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| Match report. Bounce game... on 20:05 - Dec 1 with 2490 views | fitzochris |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 20:00 - Dec 1 by boromat |
Also news that Billy is back from his extended loan. Is that early? |
He still trains with us during the week. I assume that means he's available for bounce games. | |
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| Match report. Bounce game... on 21:32 - Dec 1 with 2334 views | 49thseason |
Any statisticians out there? Assuming there are 5 main targets for a penalty - top left and right, bottom left and right and middle and that in a penalty situation, both keeper and taker choose one of those targets each, what are the odds on both randomly choosing the same taget area compared with the odds if the keeper simply stands still and saves the shots that go down the middle? In 1st class games, Lillis has saved just 2 out of 44 penalties, my guess is he would be better off sticking to just standing in the middle of his goal and saving the ones aimed at him rather than trying to second guess the strikers intent. Thoughts? Sorry my old O level isnt entirely up to figuring this one out! |  | | |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 21:40 - Dec 1 with 2315 views | TVOS1907 |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 21:32 - Dec 1 by 49thseason |
Any statisticians out there? Assuming there are 5 main targets for a penalty - top left and right, bottom left and right and middle and that in a penalty situation, both keeper and taker choose one of those targets each, what are the odds on both randomly choosing the same taget area compared with the odds if the keeper simply stands still and saves the shots that go down the middle? In 1st class games, Lillis has saved just 2 out of 44 penalties, my guess is he would be better off sticking to just standing in the middle of his goal and saving the ones aimed at him rather than trying to second guess the strikers intent. Thoughts? Sorry my old O level isnt entirely up to figuring this one out! |
It's virtually impossible to measure as it's based on skill rather than chance.
Of course, there's an element of luck, but that's not something you can quantify. |  |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| Match report. Bounce game... on 22:49 - Dec 1 with 2233 views | 49thseason |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 21:40 - Dec 1 by TVOS1907 |
It's virtually impossible to measure as it's based on skill rather than chance.
Of course, there's an element of luck, but that's not something you can quantify. |
Ok, but if you take the skill, or lack thereof, out of it and assume there are really only 5 target areas and 5 places the keeper can make a save how does it stack up. The keeper has 5 choices and the kicker has 5, so I guess thats 25 permutations with 1 where both keeper and kicker mack the same choice. Does that imply that by acting randomly a keeper would have a 1in 25 chance of making a save whereas if the keeper makes the same move every time (stands still in centre) does that affect the odds down to 5 to 1 ? Isnt it a bit like the pairs of socks in a drawer probem? | | | |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 00:08 - Dec 2 with 2168 views | Shun |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 22:49 - Dec 1 by 49thseason |
Ok, but if you take the skill, or lack thereof, out of it and assume there are really only 5 target areas and 5 places the keeper can make a save how does it stack up. The keeper has 5 choices and the kicker has 5, so I guess thats 25 permutations with 1 where both keeper and kicker mack the same choice. Does that imply that by acting randomly a keeper would have a 1in 25 chance of making a save whereas if the keeper makes the same move every time (stands still in centre) does that affect the odds down to 5 to 1 ? Isnt it a bit like the pairs of socks in a drawer probem? |
If keeper and kicker both choose the same one of your five choices there's every chance the shot will still be saved. The keeper could not stretch far enough or the shot might be too powerful. |  | | |
| (No subject) (n/t) on 00:28 - Dec 2 with 2146 views | D_Alien |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 22:49 - Dec 1 by 49thseason |
Ok, but if you take the skill, or lack thereof, out of it and assume there are really only 5 target areas and 5 places the keeper can make a save how does it stack up. The keeper has 5 choices and the kicker has 5, so I guess thats 25 permutations with 1 where both keeper and kicker mack the same choice. Does that imply that by acting randomly a keeper would have a 1in 25 chance of making a save whereas if the keeper makes the same move every time (stands still in centre) does that affect the odds down to 5 to 1 ? Isnt it a bit like the pairs of socks in a drawer probem? |
I don't think you can get beyond the point TVOS made.
If the keeper dives to one side and the taker kicks towards the centre of the goal, the keeper could still save it with his legs.
Plus, the taker could miss altogether.
On the purely theoretical point of the taker hitting the target, the odds on the keeper choosing the right option would be 1 in 5. [Post edited 2 Dec 2015 0:44]
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| Match report. Bounce game... on 00:35 - Dec 2 with 2137 views | dingdangblue |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 00:08 - Dec 2 by Shun |
If keeper and kicker both choose the same one of your five choices there's every chance the shot will still be saved. The keeper could not stretch far enough or the shot might be too powerful. |
Quite a few times Lillis has gone the right way - even got hand to the ball - but its still gone in. I like Lillis but penalty saving isn't his strong point. No shame there. Peter Shilton one of the best keepers of all time had a poor penalty record - Gary Lineker has joked since we lost that semi final v West Germany that he didn't think he ever saw Shilts save a pen.
http://www.englandfootballonline.com/TeamPenalty/PenaltiesShilton.html [Post edited 2 Dec 2015 0:41]
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| Match report. Bounce game... on 14:46 - Dec 2 with 1869 views | 49thseason |
Done some more digging (God bless Google) apparently there was a statistical investigation done in the Bundesliga over a period of 40 years to investigate penalty saves which showed that all keepers faced a total of 3507 penalties of which 714 were saved - 20.4% - also the best keepers ( in terms of penalties saved 25% and the worst about 16%. by extrapolation it seems reasonable to suggest Lillis's 2 saves from 44 (4.5%) is a very poor return and at worst should be nearer 7 or 8 saved (16%). And to return to my original thought , if he didn't dive at all and just concentrated on standing in the middle of the goal, he might well save more than his current average suggests he will by diving either to a pattern or in response to "reading" the kickers intentions.
http://oliverkuss.de/science/publications/Bornkamp_Penalty_Specialists_Among_Goa | | | |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 15:06 - Dec 2 with 1844 views | TVOS1907 |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 14:46 - Dec 2 by 49thseason |
Done some more digging (God bless Google) apparently there was a statistical investigation done in the Bundesliga over a period of 40 years to investigate penalty saves which showed that all keepers faced a total of 3507 penalties of which 714 were saved - 20.4% - also the best keepers ( in terms of penalties saved 25% and the worst about 16%. by extrapolation it seems reasonable to suggest Lillis's 2 saves from 44 (4.5%) is a very poor return and at worst should be nearer 7 or 8 saved (16%). And to return to my original thought , if he didn't dive at all and just concentrated on standing in the middle of the goal, he might well save more than his current average suggests he will by diving either to a pattern or in response to "reading" the kickers intentions.
http://oliverkuss.de/science/publications/Bornkamp_Penalty_Specialists_Among_Goa |
The problem with him standing in the middle of the goal is that penalty takers will soon know about this and just stick the ball in the corner.
Oddly, Keith Welch was an exceptional goalkeeper for Dale, but saved very few penalties.
Neil Edwards, on the other hand, saved relatively more penalties, but Welch was arguably the better 'keeper.
Thanks for the link, though, it contains some interesting stats and research. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| Match report. Bounce game... on 15:38 - Dec 2 with 1799 views | D_Alien |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 14:46 - Dec 2 by 49thseason |
Done some more digging (God bless Google) apparently there was a statistical investigation done in the Bundesliga over a period of 40 years to investigate penalty saves which showed that all keepers faced a total of 3507 penalties of which 714 were saved - 20.4% - also the best keepers ( in terms of penalties saved 25% and the worst about 16%. by extrapolation it seems reasonable to suggest Lillis's 2 saves from 44 (4.5%) is a very poor return and at worst should be nearer 7 or 8 saved (16%). And to return to my original thought , if he didn't dive at all and just concentrated on standing in the middle of the goal, he might well save more than his current average suggests he will by diving either to a pattern or in response to "reading" the kickers intentions.
http://oliverkuss.de/science/publications/Bornkamp_Penalty_Specialists_Among_Goa |
I wonder if anyone's analysed the stats on penalties in England v Germany internationals. By definition, the penalties would be taken in knockout matches so there's another element to add to the debate - bottle.
LVG was widely praised for bringing on Tim Krul in the last minute of extra time against Costa Rica in the 2014 World Cup, resulting in success during the penalty shootout. That was almost certainly based on penalty stats since if he thought Krul was the better keeper he'd have played him from the start. | |
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| Match report. Bounce game... on 15:51 - Dec 2 with 1764 views | dingdangblue |
| Match report. Bounce game... on 15:38 - Dec 2 by D_Alien |
I wonder if anyone's analysed the stats on penalties in England v Germany internationals. By definition, the penalties would be taken in knockout matches so there's another element to add to the debate - bottle.
LVG was widely praised for bringing on Tim Krul in the last minute of extra time against Costa Rica in the 2014 World Cup, resulting in success during the penalty shootout. That was almost certainly based on penalty stats since if he thought Krul was the better keeper he'd have played him from the start. |
Unfortunately for LVG in the semi v Argentina he made 3 substitution's during normal time/extra time so couldn't use the Krul tactic again. Naturally they lost the penalty shoot out. | |
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