| American owners 20:58 - Sep 25 with 31330 views | westx |
Any truth in the rumours that we are about to be sold to some Americans? |  |
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| American owners on 17:13 - Sep 27 with 2039 views | phact0rri |
Honestly without anything to showcase this aside from one or two members of the forum its hard to take it with a grain of salt. If there's actual movement with the deal in place I'll care. Otherwise nothing to think of.. as its just rumour. |  |
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| American owners on 20:22 - Sep 27 with 1917 views | Starsky |
| American owners on 17:13 - Sep 27 by phact0rri |
Honestly without anything to showcase this aside from one or two members of the forum its hard to take it with a grain of salt. If there's actual movement with the deal in place I'll care. Otherwise nothing to think of.. as its just rumour. |
Well it's an interesting debate, whether it's true or not.
Some of the contributions have been excellent. |  |
| It's just the internet, init. |
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| American owners on 06:53 - Sep 28 with 1814 views | Concerned_Parent |
| American owners on 17:13 - Sep 27 by phact0rri |
Honestly without anything to showcase this aside from one or two members of the forum its hard to take it with a grain of salt. If there's actual movement with the deal in place I'll care. Otherwise nothing to think of.. as its just rumour. |
This. When are we going to see some proof to back up these rumors? |  | | |
| American owners on 09:18 - Sep 28 with 1753 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| American owners on 12:51 - Sep 26 by monmouth |
The conditions of any deal are obviously the crux of the matter for us supporters aren't they?....control....restrictions....safeguards...debt ceilings. Plus of course supporter representation. I think Shaky is spot on about future capital gain being the driver, as the only other 'investment' option is large dividend/interest payments that are a dressed up asset strip unless they are proportionate to growth.......although to be fair I can never see the logic of the capital gain, as why is there a gain unless there is an end game asset strip in the long run...?
I've no doubt that eventually there will be further funds raised..it's too big a business to ignore any serious interest (how many of you would turn down multi millions..much as I don't like the idea of it happening in this case), I just hope that somehow, sufficient influence is retained in the hands of supporters or there are tight restrictions in terms of protecting the interests of the club and its associated community, rather than the owners.
In my gut, I don't really like it though, even if it means we get 'bigger'. Not. One. Bit.
So I hope it is just fantasy.
edit - plus of course any restrictions or covenants would need to be in perpertuity or we might just become a bauble passed from hand to hand until we drew a Ridsdale, Hammam or Tan.
[Post edited 26 Sep 2014 12:54]
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The likelyhood is we would get "a little" bigger, meaning the new owners could build us a new 40k stadium and invest in the playing squad heavily but we must never get into the mindset that we could ever feasibly become "bigger than Barca" as that has brought misery to many supporters when the chickens start to come home to roost.
Whoever it may be they may come in with the best of intentions, but if they don't have this club in their blood like the supporters do when the going gets tough they'll be off trying to cut their losses. Or they may get bored and sell up to a Vincent Tan type.
No to foreign ownership full stop. If certain directors want to cash in I hope there's something in the constitution of the club that prevents it and if they are that desperate to leave then the trust must be allowed time to generate money to buy them out. Only one of them was a millionaire before we got to the PL and I'm sure with the dividends they have earned they can live a better life than 99.9 % of us fans.
Be warned, we won't take it kindly if they sell to the wrong type of owner or subsequent owners after the potential new ones mentioned on here do. |  |
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| American owners on 09:24 - Sep 28 with 1744 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| American owners on 16:59 - Sep 26 by Oldjack |
Beware of strange men bearing gifts ,no more to be said ,we're ok as we are thanks |
A true Swans fan with only the interests of the club at heart. I f*cking love you OJ!
(And big bouncy ones) | |
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| American owners on 09:24 - Sep 28 with 1741 views | westx |
| American owners on 09:18 - Sep 28 by Brynmill_Jack |
The likelyhood is we would get "a little" bigger, meaning the new owners could build us a new 40k stadium and invest in the playing squad heavily but we must never get into the mindset that we could ever feasibly become "bigger than Barca" as that has brought misery to many supporters when the chickens start to come home to roost.
Whoever it may be they may come in with the best of intentions, but if they don't have this club in their blood like the supporters do when the going gets tough they'll be off trying to cut their losses. Or they may get bored and sell up to a Vincent Tan type.
No to foreign ownership full stop. If certain directors want to cash in I hope there's something in the constitution of the club that prevents it and if they are that desperate to leave then the trust must be allowed time to generate money to buy them out. Only one of them was a millionaire before we got to the PL and I'm sure with the dividends they have earned they can live a better life than 99.9 % of us fans.
Be warned, we won't take it kindly if they sell to the wrong type of owner or subsequent owners after the potential new ones mentioned on here do. |
I'm not sure that the Trust could even hope to raise money even if they were given the chance? Assuming the valuation that certain shareholders place on the club (£100m) is right then even to buy out a minority shareholder like Dineen would be £5m so what chance to they have of that kind of money?
From what I heard in Sunderland yesterday the desire there is to cash in (as Warwick said earlier in the thread it looks like the vanity project that was the film was the closing act) and therefore all we can hold is that the Trust hold firm and retain their shareholding and most definitely their seat on the board
Some of the sentiments in this thread are admirable but as Shaky said if someone waves tens of millions in someone's face their 'love of the club' will always be tested to the selling point | |
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| American owners on 09:29 - Sep 28 with 1731 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| American owners on 09:19 - Sep 27 by MoscowJack |
The question I keep asking myself is what would £100m of investment on the pitch bring us? We can't really expect to be much higher in the table, I love the fact that we buy rough diamonds and polish them (usually) and whatever we spend above what we do now surely carries the threat of debt with it, however that debt is hidden or disguised.
Off the pitch, we can make huge improvements, that's for sure. The Americans can give us exposure to the US of A that would generate a lot more income, but how important is that income now, compared to the SKY TV money? Would it change us hugely or benefit us so much that we have to sell up?
On the other hand, I can understand why two or more of the Directors would want to cash in and get £5m, or whatever it would be. For them, it's possibly a life-changing opportunity for them and their families. We can't pretend that we would walk away from that if we were in that position, can we?
For now, as this has only really been a rumour (although it seems to have a lot of truth to it), we need the Trust. It's quite ironic that we've recently had threads on here talking about how the Trust is good behind the scenes, but that they should be more visible and vocal at times.
Right now, we HAVE to trust the Trust. Their shareholding is what protects us from the next owners and the ones after. There are a lot of extremely clever, caring and passionate people within the Trust and I believe that they would ensure that the best was done for the SAFETY of the future of the club that we all love. Let's also be honest, no owners would dare to take over without the FULL backing and support of the Trust as they could so easily turn the fans against them.
If they don't believe that, there's a good little film in the cinemas at the moment that they might do well to watch! |
We could maybe get top 6 but it's not the transfer outlay that (slightly possibly) gets you success, it's a massive wage bill. One relegation and all that's left of the club will be a piece of scorched earth where the liberty once stood.
And the sound of the clanking gold chains of mercenary millionaire footballers off to their next big pay day.
Not in my f*cking name | |
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| American owners on 09:33 - Sep 28 with 1725 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| American owners on 09:50 - Sep 27 by MoscowJack |
Perchie,
The "local man made good" is already the majority shareholder!
To take us to another level, it would need £100s of millions. Right now, we're a mid-table team and I accept (happily) that we're not going to get a lot higher than that. Top 8 is a possibility, but higher is unlikely.
To get into the Top 6, we would need approximately £300m-£500m nowadays. That's not going to happen unless we sell our souls like our poor red cousins up the road.
Let's keep on doing what we're doing and see what happens. If/when we go down, we'll be debt free and still strong, unlike almost every relegated team in the PL history.
THIS is the Swansea Way, Mr. Ness! |
I've blocked that utter dickhead PRJ but if that's what he's advocating then my suspicions are true, he's no Swansea fan. He hasn't been around for the bad times and that's dangerous in itself.He's lived on Merseyside for 30 years plus so best he stays there and keeps his cake hole shut | |
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| American owners on 09:36 - Sep 28 with 1717 views | johnlangy |
NO THANK YOU. | | | |
| American owners on 09:42 - Sep 28 with 1708 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| American owners on 10:49 - Sep 27 by marchamjack |
No idea whether there's any foundation to these rumours or not, but if they are true then I've certainly got a view.
The club has managed to get itself into a position (top half of Premier League) that is realistically as far as we can ever get to (never going to break into top 7 say over any sustained period of time and no investor is going to put in the literally 100's of millions we'd need to to do that). We've got there by being a club that virtually everyone I speak to (being an exile) admires and wants to aspire to with their own club. That makes me so proud and what makes our club special and unique (certainly at this level). Yes, the club has moved a little away from us fans over the years in the Premier League, but that's inevitable really given where the club now is. Having said that, if you want to meet the players or have a drink with the directors, you can go down to Morgans or bump into them in the street. There's no other Premier League club where that happens and when I tell people, they can barely beleive me and are incredulous, which to me says everything about their clubs and all about our club being so different.
You look at what's happened up the road with outside money and have a look at their messageboards and there's a clear disconnect with their club and the fans don't recognise it or care much about it either. Not just citing them, look at Man City, Chelsea, bet their fans don't recognice the clubs they used to be and they are just massive corporations really with little connection to their communities. I like our specialness compared to that and if our club became just another franchise almost, then I know I'd lose a lot of the feeling for the club and once our uniqueness was gone we'd never get it back and we'd be just another Premiership team. I'd always suport us of course, but I'd hate to lose that specialness we have and which others wish they had.
Having said all that, if I was LD or HJ or JVZ etc, ordinary blokes who are now sitting on shares worth literally millions of pounds and could sell them on to set myself and my family and my children up for life, there would be a huge temptation to do so. I couldn't blame them certainly. I very much hope they don't, but if they did, well, they've more than done their bit to get us here and as I say, even I recognise we've reached our glass ceiling really in the Premiership.
My views here don't get us any further on this debate because in the end, if the directors decide to sell their shares then that's what they'll do. I will at that time though certainly be looking to the Trust to stay involved and probably at that time too, to become vocal (if that's the right word) in using whatever leverage it can to keep the fans involved and to avoid the club moving entirely away from us supporters, which in the end of all of this, is by far my biggest fear really in any possible takeover by outsiders. |
Excellent post mate. 100 % agree. No sugar daddy but consistent mid table finishes , a cup win and a venture into Europe by way of wining a major trophy and not the Welsh cup! Feels good to me! | |
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| American owners on 09:52 - Sep 28 with 1691 views | Shaky |
| American owners on 09:24 - Sep 28 by westx |
I'm not sure that the Trust could even hope to raise money even if they were given the chance? Assuming the valuation that certain shareholders place on the club (£100m) is right then even to buy out a minority shareholder like Dineen would be £5m so what chance to they have of that kind of money?
From what I heard in Sunderland yesterday the desire there is to cash in (as Warwick said earlier in the thread it looks like the vanity project that was the film was the closing act) and therefore all we can hold is that the Trust hold firm and retain their shareholding and most definitely their seat on the board
Some of the sentiments in this thread are admirable but as Shaky said if someone waves tens of millions in someone's face their 'love of the club' will always be tested to the selling point |
We're doing a kid's disco for my 5-year old later today and I have plenty on my plate but I'd like to make just one point.
Several years ago I mentioned a value of £100 million for the club, which now seems to have become an accepted number.
But these things aren't static, and at this moment in time my back of the envelope valuation says that is now approaching the lower end of the range, that possibly stretches to £140/150million with a midpoint likely around £125m. |  |
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| American owners on 10:00 - Sep 28 with 1669 views | westx |
| American owners on 09:52 - Sep 28 by Shaky |
We're doing a kid's disco for my 5-year old later today and I have plenty on my plate but I'd like to make just one point.
Several years ago I mentioned a value of £100 million for the club, which now seems to have become an accepted number.
But these things aren't static, and at this moment in time my back of the envelope valuation says that is now approaching the lower end of the range, that possibly stretches to £140/150million with a midpoint likely around £125m. |
I'm not sure where your £100m came from but it certainly the figure that our Vice Chairman has banded around as his valuation when he talks about his shares | |
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| American owners on 10:02 - Sep 28 with 1664 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| American owners on 10:00 - Sep 28 by westx |
I'm not sure where your £100m came from but it certainly the figure that our Vice Chairman has banded around as his valuation when he talks about his shares |
Pray tell. Go on if it's Dineen I'm dying to know what the Motspurs reserve goalkeeper has to say....... | |
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| American owners on 10:04 - Sep 28 with 1659 views | westx |
| American owners on 10:02 - Sep 28 by Brynmill_Jack |
Pray tell. Go on if it's Dineen I'm dying to know what the Motspurs reserve goalkeeper has to say....... |
Motspurs reserve goalkeeper? | |
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| American owners on 10:07 - Sep 28 with 1651 views | jackonicko |
Valuation numbers remain meaningless until you know how many of the shareholders are looking to sell.
£100m is a nice round number, but I don't disagree with Shaky that on normal valuation principles you could go a bit higher. However, that number is based on you getting 100% of the equity. It doesn't mean that Dineen's holding is worth £5m on its own.
Who on earth would pay £5m for such a tiny minority stake? On any valuation principle, I struggle to put more than £500k on it.
So, the big questions really are:
- are there any circumstances in which the Trust would sell?
- are there any circumstances in which just one of the other shareholders won't sell.
A combination of the trust plus any one other shareholder not selling means less than 75% of the equity is on offer. And that makes a big difference to the attractiveness of the investment in the first place. |  | | |
| American owners on 10:07 - Sep 28 with 1649 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| American owners on 10:04 - Sep 28 by westx |
Motspurs reserve goalkeeper? |
Yes he was. And I should know, I was in the same hapless team | |
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| American owners on 10:08 - Sep 28 with 1646 views | johnlangy |
Many people question how we could grow to the next level without major outside investment.
If/when we expand the stadium to 33,000 the extra gate income will mean an extra £5 m income per season. It may not seem much (strange to be able to say that after the Tommy Mutton days) but it means either an extra player per season or the means to be able to pay better wages to attract better players.
Also, by the time of the expansion, if the academy is fully on stream we may also have more home grown players coming through which also releases transfer funds because we don't have to buy those players in.
They may not be huge steps like some sheikh walking through the door with billions promising the earth but they'll be our steps.
And we'll still have OUR Club. How much is that worth. | | | |
| American owners on 10:10 - Sep 28 with 1634 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| American owners on 10:08 - Sep 28 by johnlangy |
Many people question how we could grow to the next level without major outside investment.
If/when we expand the stadium to 33,000 the extra gate income will mean an extra £5 m income per season. It may not seem much (strange to be able to say that after the Tommy Mutton days) but it means either an extra player per season or the means to be able to pay better wages to attract better players.
Also, by the time of the expansion, if the academy is fully on stream we may also have more home grown players coming through which also releases transfer funds because we don't have to buy those players in.
They may not be huge steps like some sheikh walking through the door with billions promising the earth but they'll be our steps.
And we'll still have OUR Club. How much is that worth. |
Absolutely. Softly softly catcher monkey.
Instead of killing the b*stard by trying to machine gun it | |
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| American owners on 10:11 - Sep 28 with 1630 views | westx |
| American owners on 10:07 - Sep 28 by Brynmill_Jack |
Yes he was. And I should know, I was in the same hapless team |
Dineen was? The reserve goalkeeper fancies himself as a millionaire
Not bad for being able to make an investment way beyond the risky time for most of the investors
Oh and on top of this £100k salary he takes the club for as well
Was he all about his ego back in those days as well as it is massively inflated these days [Post edited 28 Sep 2014 10:11]
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| American owners on 10:12 - Sep 28 with 1624 views | westx |
| American owners on 10:07 - Sep 28 by jackonicko |
Valuation numbers remain meaningless until you know how many of the shareholders are looking to sell.
£100m is a nice round number, but I don't disagree with Shaky that on normal valuation principles you could go a bit higher. However, that number is based on you getting 100% of the equity. It doesn't mean that Dineen's holding is worth £5m on its own.
Who on earth would pay £5m for such a tiny minority stake? On any valuation principle, I struggle to put more than £500k on it.
So, the big questions really are:
- are there any circumstances in which the Trust would sell?
- are there any circumstances in which just one of the other shareholders won't sell.
A combination of the trust plus any one other shareholder not selling means less than 75% of the equity is on offer. And that makes a big difference to the attractiveness of the investment in the first place. |
Surely there are no circumstances in which the Trust would sell?
I do totally agree though around the valuation being for 100% and that is something that the non savvy members of our shareholding don't believe in.
I do believe that there are shareholders that believe that the Trust should sell up for the good of the club... | |
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| American owners on 10:30 - Sep 28 with 1588 views | Shaky |
| American owners on 10:07 - Sep 28 by jackonicko |
Valuation numbers remain meaningless until you know how many of the shareholders are looking to sell.
£100m is a nice round number, but I don't disagree with Shaky that on normal valuation principles you could go a bit higher. However, that number is based on you getting 100% of the equity. It doesn't mean that Dineen's holding is worth £5m on its own.
Who on earth would pay £5m for such a tiny minority stake? On any valuation principle, I struggle to put more than £500k on it.
So, the big questions really are:
- are there any circumstances in which the Trust would sell?
- are there any circumstances in which just one of the other shareholders won't sell.
A combination of the trust plus any one other shareholder not selling means less than 75% of the equity is on offer. And that makes a big difference to the attractiveness of the investment in the first place. |
First of all the magic number under UK company law is 90%; anything above that and you can enforce compulsory buyout of remaining minorities.
Ordinarily it would be critical for any acquiror to be able to attain that threshold in order to fully control cash-flows, integrate tax planning, etc. but I doubt that would be the case here.
The are not going to be any real synergies with any potential investors, tax benefits, etc, and in any case the club would be unlikely to throw off any meaningful cash -- in fact quite the opposite.
As such a simple majority could well be enough for a financial investor without affecting the valuation much, and it could even be useful for PR purposes if remaining shareholders are onside.
Furthermore, there might be opportunities to increase the shareholding later on if further capital is required... . | |
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| American owners on 10:34 - Sep 28 with 1580 views | Shaky |
| American owners on 10:07 - Sep 28 by jackonicko |
Valuation numbers remain meaningless until you know how many of the shareholders are looking to sell.
£100m is a nice round number, but I don't disagree with Shaky that on normal valuation principles you could go a bit higher. However, that number is based on you getting 100% of the equity. It doesn't mean that Dineen's holding is worth £5m on its own.
Who on earth would pay £5m for such a tiny minority stake? On any valuation principle, I struggle to put more than £500k on it.
So, the big questions really are:
- are there any circumstances in which the Trust would sell?
- are there any circumstances in which just one of the other shareholders won't sell.
A combination of the trust plus any one other shareholder not selling means less than 75% of the equity is on offer. And that makes a big difference to the attractiveness of the investment in the first place. |
"£100m is a nice round number, but I don't disagree with Shaky that on normal valuation principles you could go a bit higher"
BTW, that's some movement from your - what was it ?- max £25 million a few years ago.  | |
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| American owners on 10:40 - Sep 28 with 1571 views | jackonicko |
| American owners on 10:34 - Sep 28 by Shaky |
"£100m is a nice round number, but I don't disagree with Shaky that on normal valuation principles you could go a bit higher"
BTW, that's some movement from your - what was it ?- max £25 million a few years ago. |
Nope. Not at all.
My post above is actually the same point I made before. You need everyone to sell to get to 100m, and if the trust doesn't you need to start discounting down. | | | |
| American owners on 10:48 - Sep 28 with 1555 views | Shaky |
| American owners on 10:40 - Sep 28 by jackonicko |
Nope. Not at all.
My post above is actually the same point I made before. You need everyone to sell to get to 100m, and if the trust doesn't you need to start discounting down. |
Well you know what they say; a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, | |
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| American owners on 12:40 - Sep 28 with 1470 views | westx |
| American owners on 10:48 - Sep 28 by Shaky |
Well you know what they say; a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, |
And on the whole deal at the moment the only knowledge we have is that some shareholders are looking to sell | |
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