| The General Election and the next Assembly election 17:36 - Nov 22 with 3587 views | johnlangy |
There is a growing revolution, for want of a better word, for powers to be devolved to Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the regions of England. It is going to happen and we in Wales need to be prepared for when it does.
In the upcoming General Election, as I see it, Labour are going to lose a substantial number of seats to the SNP plus a few to UKIP. The Tories are probably also going to lose a large number to UKIP. As a result the SNP will likely have about 30 MP's (while also running Hollyrood) while Plaid will likely still have just 3 MP's while also being just part of the opposition in the Assembly. I don't, quite honestly, see the number of Plaid MP's increasing.
If what i've said above happens there'll be another coalition in Westminster. That could mean either Labour/SNP or, God help us, Conservative/UKIP. The first of those two possibilities would be great for Scotland but Wales will still be in a very weak position. I'm sure the SNP will be supportive of further devolved powers for Wales, because not supporting devolution for others would weaken their own argument, but their main focus will be 100% on what's right for Scotland.
And what if we end up with the other possibility. Imagine Nigel Farage as Deputy Prime Minister !
The Assembly Elections will then happen in 2016 and, if they go to form, we'll re-elect a Labour administration who will run the Assembly in a similar way to the last 15 years. I've used the comparison before and i'll use it again. The Westminster governments over the last few decades have ruled the UK mostly for the benefit of London and the South East to the detriment of the rest of the UK which has resulted in the current 'revolution'. Labour has run the Assembly in the same way with the South East of Wales replicating the South East of England. The way they've concentrated investment in the SE to the detriment of the rest of Wales is criminal.
And if we keep voting them in it will just continue. In the last few days we've seen the plans for the latest huge City Centre development in Cardiff. One million square feet of office space on the site of the current bus station. That development is planned to include a terminus for the Metro which will follow as soon as the Assembly is given borrowing powers. The Metro will cost a fortune and the money they borrow will then have to be paid back by the whole of Wales' population, the majority of which will gain no benefit whatsoever. And then today we hear about electrification of the valleys lines. That's the valleys north of Cardiff, of course, and feeding into Cardiff. I have no idea how much that is going to cost us.
I've spoken directly to, and emailed, Bethan Jenkins to say that I believe Plaid should include in their manifesto for the Assembly election a promise that, if they are elected to run the Assembly they will ensure that this imbalance is reversed, that for however long it takes investment in the rest of Wales outside of the South East will be their number one priority until the benefits of Wales' wealth is spread across the whole country.
Plaid are the only party that can do this because, if you like, they have nothing to lose. Their power base in Wales is not in the South East so there are no seats to lose. Labour's strength in Wales, as with the Conservatives on a UK level, is mainly South East based. Not exclusively of course and shamefully, in my opinion, Swansea also votes in Labour AM's even though everyone who can see knows that Swansea has been starved of investment.
The UK argument for devolving power to the regions, essentially spreading the wealth, has already been made and won. The same should happen in Wales. |  | | |  |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 13:02 - Nov 23 with 1036 views | Lohengrin |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 12:56 - Nov 23 by exiledclaseboy |
Depends on the numbers. The LibDems won't be completely wiped out and will be left with 10-20 MPs. A lot depends on where the disaffected LibDem voters go.. Add to that the SNP (currently six, could well increase that to 10 or maybe more), Plaid, Green (if Caroline Lucas survives). Agree that the Unionists are out of the question but the left-leaning SDLP also has a few at the moment. The nationalist vote has been increasing in NI over the last few elections so they could factor as well. |
Of course it depends on the numbers, as you say. It could well turn out to be a re-run of the mid-70s with another election to follow in short order as no consensus to govern could be acheived. |  |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 13:06 - Nov 23 with 1034 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 13:02 - Nov 23 by Lohengrin |
Of course it depends on the numbers, as you say. It could well turn out to be a re-run of the mid-70s with another election to follow in short order as no consensus to govern could be acheived. |
Wouldn't be surprised. One thing I can't see is an outright majority for either of the "main" parties. The way the boundaries are currently drawn I believe the Tories need about 40% to get a majority. UKIP's vote will make that impossible for them. Labour needs to win about 70 seats to get a majority. That ain't gonna happen either. |  |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 14:31 - Nov 23 with 986 views | CountyJim |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 11:41 - Nov 23 by Lohengrin |
Plaid is the creation of language zealots and Roman Catholics it never was meant to appeal to the traditional working class, its always regarded industry with a sort of morbid disdain.
It tickles me that some on here have come to regard Plaid as a viable left of centre alternative to Liebore when the fact is, for most of its history, the house that Saunders built has been so far to the right its been in peril of falling off the spectrum altogether. |
Well this left footer will be voting Labour and campaigning
Thats Rubbish about Catholics Creating Plaid |  | | |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 14:44 - Nov 23 with 978 views | Lohengrin |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 14:31 - Nov 23 by CountyJim |
Well this left footer will be voting Labour and campaigning
Thats Rubbish about Catholics Creating Plaid |
Plaid wasn't derided as The Pope's Party in the '30s for nothing, Jim. Dig a bit. | |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 14:53 - Nov 23 with 964 views | acejack3065 |
This election is just going to prove how completely broken our parliamentary system is. We won't have a government and the devolved administrations are failing in their objectives. Nothing short of redrawing our constitution is the answer.
We need a more federal system, not this stupid half and half system that exists at the minute.
I'm a Labour Party member and the Labour Party is dying. The central party has no link with it's core vote and the Welsh assembly is staffed by morons and a few half decent AMs. The local council is just an extension of the treasury so it's irrelevant who controls it.
My prediction for 2015 is a conservative minority government. Labour is struggling to hold Gower and Swansea West, let alone coming close to winning seats like Preseli which it needs to form a government.
People are unhappy with the political system and are protesting by voting for UKIP which is a shame because of their establishment links and abhorrent policies. People would be better off voting for the Greens. |  | | |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 15:07 - Nov 23 with 954 views | Lohengrin |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 14:53 - Nov 23 by acejack3065 |
This election is just going to prove how completely broken our parliamentary system is. We won't have a government and the devolved administrations are failing in their objectives. Nothing short of redrawing our constitution is the answer.
We need a more federal system, not this stupid half and half system that exists at the minute.
I'm a Labour Party member and the Labour Party is dying. The central party has no link with it's core vote and the Welsh assembly is staffed by morons and a few half decent AMs. The local council is just an extension of the treasury so it's irrelevant who controls it.
My prediction for 2015 is a conservative minority government. Labour is struggling to hold Gower and Swansea West, let alone coming close to winning seats like Preseli which it needs to form a government.
People are unhappy with the political system and are protesting by voting for UKIP which is a shame because of their establishment links and abhorrent policies. People would be better off voting for the Greens. |
Better off voting for The Greens, you say? That's a highly subjective statement. I'd be curious to see their candidates in Neath Port Talbot trying to sell the closure of the Abbey Works to the thousands of voters there who rely on it to pay their mortgages and send their children to university. | |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 15:20 - Nov 23 with 936 views | acejack3065 |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 15:07 - Nov 23 by Lohengrin |
Better off voting for The Greens, you say? That's a highly subjective statement. I'd be curious to see their candidates in Neath Port Talbot trying to sell the closure of the Abbey Works to the thousands of voters there who rely on it to pay their mortgages and send their children to university. |
It is very subjective but Labours defecting core vote is definitely more politically aligned to the Greens than UKIP, that's why I suggested them. | | | |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 15:50 - Nov 23 with 921 views | Lohengrin |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 15:20 - Nov 23 by acejack3065 |
It is very subjective but Labours defecting core vote is definitely more politically aligned to the Greens than UKIP, that's why I suggested them. |
Now I'd venture to suggest that Labour's core vote would be far more UKIP inclined than Millbank would care to admit. Subjectivity again, this time from me. A lot of this right-on, PC capering is met with bewilderment rather than agreement in the barrack blocks and on the building sites and assembly lines.
I'll make a sweeping, generalised statement here, albeit one which I think holds true, when I say that the vast majority of those who vote do so on gut instinct rather than any deep appreciation of nuanced policy initiatives.They identify with an individual rather than ideology. I'm talking about your average Joe here, the chap who gets his hands dirty making a living and it's my contention that Farage is far more likely to be viewed as "one of us" than would a rather intense, overtly intellectual environmentalist.
I'm not unnecessarily decrying the Green Movement here as I think they have some very interesting, if abstract, ideas. I'm pretty convinced though that this next election will be reduced to something of a street fight and it's not the place The Greens will be comfortable and its likely to see them get elbowed aside. | |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 16:51 - Nov 23 with 899 views | johnlangy |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 12:56 - Nov 23 by exiledclaseboy |
Depends on the numbers. The LibDems won't be completely wiped out and will be left with 10-20 MPs. A lot depends on where the disaffected LibDem voters go.. Add to that the SNP (currently six, could well increase that to 10 or maybe more), Plaid, Green (if Caroline Lucas survives). Agree that the Unionists are out of the question but the left-leaning SDLP also has a few at the moment. The nationalist vote has been increasing in NI over the last few elections so they could factor as well. |
I believe the SNP will end up with at least 20 MP's. They will be a sensible fit with Labour in coalition in spite of the defection of so many of Labour's Scottish voters to the SNP. Most disaffected Lib Dem voters will go to Labour. Some will probably vote Tory to keep UKIP out in places where Labour are weak. They (Lib Dems) will still retain around half the seats they have now which means 25/30 and they could make the difference with Labour/SNP in creating a majority.
All my opinions of course. | | | |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 16:57 - Nov 23 with 893 views | johnlangy |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 14:44 - Nov 23 by Lohengrin |
Plaid wasn't derided as The Pope's Party in the '30s for nothing, Jim. Dig a bit. |
Lohengrin - You said this in an earlier post :
***************
Plaid is the creation of language zealots and Roman Catholics it never was meant to appeal to the traditional working class, its always regarded industry with a sort of morbid disdain.
It tickles me that some on here have come to regard Plaid as a viable left of centre alternative to Liebore when the fact is, for most of its history, the house that Saunders built has been so far to the right its been in peril of falling off the spectrum altogether.
***************
Then followed it up with this one. Both i'm sure accurate but what has the type of party Plaid was in the 1930's got to do with an election in 2014.
Labour was a proper people's party in the 1930's. Not many would describe it as that now. | | | |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 16:58 - Nov 23 with 891 views | acejack3065 |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 16:51 - Nov 23 by johnlangy |
I believe the SNP will end up with at least 20 MP's. They will be a sensible fit with Labour in coalition in spite of the defection of so many of Labour's Scottish voters to the SNP. Most disaffected Lib Dem voters will go to Labour. Some will probably vote Tory to keep UKIP out in places where Labour are weak. They (Lib Dems) will still retain around half the seats they have now which means 25/30 and they could make the difference with Labour/SNP in creating a majority.
All my opinions of course. |
All opinions are welcome and most are probably valid because we simply have no effing clue as to who will win in 2015 yet.
Dimbleby will have his work cut out for him picking over the bones on election night. | | | |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 17:03 - Nov 23 with 888 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 16:51 - Nov 23 by johnlangy |
I believe the SNP will end up with at least 20 MP's. They will be a sensible fit with Labour in coalition in spite of the defection of so many of Labour's Scottish voters to the SNP. Most disaffected Lib Dem voters will go to Labour. Some will probably vote Tory to keep UKIP out in places where Labour are weak. They (Lib Dems) will still retain around half the seats they have now which means 25/30 and they could make the difference with Labour/SNP in creating a majority.
All my opinions of course. |
20 SNP MPs? That's a massive jump from their current number of six, especially under a first past the post system. That would require them to get around 50% of the vote I reckon, they got 20% last time. Things have moved on since then, granted, but 10-15 MPs would be a triumph for the SNP. | |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 17:28 - Nov 23 with 873 views | johnlangy |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 17:03 - Nov 23 by exiledclaseboy |
20 SNP MPs? That's a massive jump from their current number of six, especially under a first past the post system. That would require them to get around 50% of the vote I reckon, they got 20% last time. Things have moved on since then, granted, but 10-15 MPs would be a triumph for the SNP. |
Scottish people have seen the potential strength of the SNP in the referendum. The turnout was almost 90% and the Yes vote was around 45/46% of that.
All those Yes voters will want to ensure Scotland gets what was promised and the best way they'll achieve that is by having as many SNP MP's as possible. Having essentially voted SNP a couple of months ago I can't see many of that 45% reverting to Labour.
Add to that lot the people who voted No because of the promises of more powers. They may very well be thinking along the same lines. That is, the SNP will ensure we get those powers. | | | |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 17:35 - Nov 23 with 872 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 17:28 - Nov 23 by johnlangy |
Scottish people have seen the potential strength of the SNP in the referendum. The turnout was almost 90% and the Yes vote was around 45/46% of that.
All those Yes voters will want to ensure Scotland gets what was promised and the best way they'll achieve that is by having as many SNP MP's as possible. Having essentially voted SNP a couple of months ago I can't see many of that 45% reverting to Labour.
Add to that lot the people who voted No because of the promises of more powers. They may very well be thinking along the same lines. That is, the SNP will ensure we get those powers. |
I don't agree that a yes vote in the referendum was also an endorsement of the SNP. I think the SNP will do well in May. How well they'll do, time will tell. [Post edited 23 Nov 2014 17:36]
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 17:54 - Nov 23 with 852 views | Lohengrin |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 16:57 - Nov 23 by johnlangy |
Lohengrin - You said this in an earlier post :
***************
Plaid is the creation of language zealots and Roman Catholics it never was meant to appeal to the traditional working class, its always regarded industry with a sort of morbid disdain.
It tickles me that some on here have come to regard Plaid as a viable left of centre alternative to Liebore when the fact is, for most of its history, the house that Saunders built has been so far to the right its been in peril of falling off the spectrum altogether.
***************
Then followed it up with this one. Both i'm sure accurate but what has the type of party Plaid was in the 1930's got to do with an election in 2014.
Labour was a proper people's party in the 1930's. Not many would describe it as that now. |
I raised the point, John, partly to try and stimulate a bit of debate; in the hope that I'd get a few bites, but largely to point out the origin of the movement. When the next election looms you'll no doubt be hearing a lot of glib talk from politicos about the need to return to core values and it's always instructive to have a handle on what those core values are.
So what were Plaid's? The underpinning philosophy was largely Gallic. Lewis, Bebb and Valentine took their lead from Maurras' Action Francaise. The economics were garnered from their understanding of Distributism as propounded by Chesterton and Belloc. A system devised to put flesh on the bone of the 1891 Papal Encyclical, Rerum Novarum. I'm not knocking any of that. In fact RN was probably the most interesting document to emerge from the Catholic Church in 1500 years but there's nothing of the left in any of it. If Plaid thought of Socialism at all it was in terms of how to combat not complement it.
Quickly on to your second point about Labour being "a proper people's party" in the 30's, I'm afraid that wasn't the case. Labour had been weighed in the balance during its 1929-31 administration and was found badly wanting. This is in danger of turning into an essay I doubt many on here would have the inclination to read so I'll leave you with a couple of book titles you can get from the library that tells the whole grisly tale in detail.
Politicians and the Slump by Robert Skidelsky and The Decline and fall of The Labour Party by John Scanlon. If you can spare the time I'd urge you to give them a try, it was a fascinating period and these two titles strike a good balance. | |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 18:21 - Nov 23 with 825 views | johnlangy |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 17:35 - Nov 23 by exiledclaseboy |
I don't agree that a yes vote in the referendum was also an endorsement of the SNP. I think the SNP will do well in May. How well they'll do, time will tell. [Post edited 23 Nov 2014 17:36]
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Agreed ecb. They will get a lot more MP's than they have at present. The only question is how many.
It will be interesting to compare numbers next May. | | | |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 18:31 - Nov 23 with 816 views | johnlangy |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 17:54 - Nov 23 by Lohengrin |
I raised the point, John, partly to try and stimulate a bit of debate; in the hope that I'd get a few bites, but largely to point out the origin of the movement. When the next election looms you'll no doubt be hearing a lot of glib talk from politicos about the need to return to core values and it's always instructive to have a handle on what those core values are.
So what were Plaid's? The underpinning philosophy was largely Gallic. Lewis, Bebb and Valentine took their lead from Maurras' Action Francaise. The economics were garnered from their understanding of Distributism as propounded by Chesterton and Belloc. A system devised to put flesh on the bone of the 1891 Papal Encyclical, Rerum Novarum. I'm not knocking any of that. In fact RN was probably the most interesting document to emerge from the Catholic Church in 1500 years but there's nothing of the left in any of it. If Plaid thought of Socialism at all it was in terms of how to combat not complement it.
Quickly on to your second point about Labour being "a proper people's party" in the 30's, I'm afraid that wasn't the case. Labour had been weighed in the balance during its 1929-31 administration and was found badly wanting. This is in danger of turning into an essay I doubt many on here would have the inclination to read so I'll leave you with a couple of book titles you can get from the library that tells the whole grisly tale in detail.
Politicians and the Slump by Robert Skidelsky and The Decline and fall of The Labour Party by John Scanlon. If you can spare the time I'd urge you to give them a try, it was a fascinating period and these two titles strike a good balance. |
I don't have much historical knowledge at all of Plaid or Labour Lohengrin. Without that knowledge, instead of saying Labour was 'a proper people's party' in the 30's maybe I should just have said Labour is vastly different now and can't be compared. Also Plaid the same.
And, as regards the books you mention i'll have to give them a miss. I struggle to get though my daily copy of the Sun and it's incisive news reporting (  ).
I am joking honestly. | | | |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 19:05 - Nov 23 with 798 views | dgt73 |
Hopefully labour will get in and they can continue what they started in fu*cking up the country ruining the economy and creating even more debut for future generations to sort out. [Post edited 23 Nov 2014 19:06]
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 21:06 - Nov 23 with 773 views | epaul |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 19:05 - Nov 23 by dgt73 |
Hopefully labour will get in and they can continue what they started in fu*cking up the country ruining the economy and creating even more debut for future generations to sort out. [Post edited 23 Nov 2014 19:06]
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That b*tch started it in the 80'same and we're still paying for it |  |
| The hair and the beard have gone I am now conforming to society, tis a sad day
The b*stards are coming back though |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 22:07 - Nov 23 with 749 views | acejack3065 |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 21:06 - Nov 23 by epaul |
That b*tch started it in the 80'same and we're still paying for it |
Indeed. Neoliberal economics has destroyed the western economic powerhouses over the last 35 years. We need to get back to Keynesianism economics. It took us out of the 30s depression and it will sort us out today!
I hope Lohengrin isn't too detailed with his response. I'm way too tired and full of Crown Royal! | | | |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 22:17 - Nov 23 with 747 views | waynekerr55 |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 12:39 - Nov 23 by perchrockjack |
Well, that is a matter of opinion Sir.
Its yours and that's just fine..
PERSONALLY, throw in Ed BALLS as Chancellor, Yvette Cooper as Home Sec and God knows who as Foreign Sec , it makes me want to spend the next 5 yrs somewhere else |
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Ed Balls, the man kept in the front benches to stop him from causing trouble.
It's time the masses stood up and revolted against these clueless career politicians |  |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 23:09 - Nov 23 with 728 views | Kilkennyjack |
When scottish labour lined up with ukip, the tory coalition, the orange order, and the bnp against a free Scotland then it was a suicide note. SNP membership was 25,000 on referendum day after all the peoples politics that delivered a 90 % voter turnout. Today ? - well today, they have 93,000 members. That is massive. for scale it is double the total uk membership of the libdems. The Tories have 134,000 nationally. Multiply by family members, further cuts , and the fact that the Vow will not be delivered, then the SNP with their new leader will deliver more than 20 mp's. And good for them. |  |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 00:55 - Nov 24 with 700 views | epaul |
| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 22:17 - Nov 23 by waynekerr55 |
x2
Ed Balls, the man kept in the front benches to stop him from causing trouble.
It's time the masses stood up and revolted against these clueless career politicians |
with you all the way mate | |
| The hair and the beard have gone I am now conforming to society, tis a sad day
The b*stards are coming back though |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election (n/t) on 08:26 - Nov 24 with 661 views | NOTRAC |
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| The General Election and the next Assembly election on 08:33 - Nov 24 with 660 views | NOTRAC |
The only way that things will change is for the voter to get involved with the party.
Join their party,attend meetings,stand at elections.
In places like the Rhondda there are so few active party members that decisions on Labour candidates are made in members front rooms.
It is far too easy at the moment for stereotypes to gain party nominations.
This applies to all parties.
There must be wonderful opportunities at the moment for youngsters to break into politics.having regard to the weak structures and management of all parties. | |
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