| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread 20:33 - Apr 7 with 83308 views | exiledclaseboy |
About time we had one and it's got the word "official" in the title so that makes all the difference. If a mod wants to sticky it, feel free.
I seem to remember that five years ago (on the old, better Planet Swans) we got to nearly 100 pages and then another 60odd with the "aftermath" thread. They were good fun but there were more posters then and we were all a bit more tolerant of others' views. Let's try to be nice to each other, eh.
Anyway, best site for opinion polls is this one in my experience:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Polls are so tight the only conclusion is that the Tories and Labour are head to head nationwide. Can't put a whisker between them.
Tories need about 39-40% for an overall majority. Labour will probably get one on 36-37%. God bless our ridiculous voting system.
So, enjoy yourselves. I'll start with a prediction. Labour to win most seats but slightly fewer votes than the Tories and end up forming some kind of minority government with support from various parliamentary lefties on a vote by vote basis. And then all of a sudden many Tory supporters will discover that they've always hated first past the post and can't understand why we perpetuate a system under which the party which more people voted for than any other can lose the election. It'll be quite funny and lead to calls for a proper voting system. Which everyone will forget about in six months when all the fuss has died down.
What say you? |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:05 - Apr 20 with 2365 views | C_jack |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:59 - Apr 20 by yescomeon |
Been playing with this app or whatever it is the other day. Seems a Labour/SNP partnership is the only thing that will get a government formed. |
And it's without a shadow of a doubt the worst possibility imaginable, utter chaos. The worst thing the Scots ever did was vote No, now they're likely to be bringing it all down from within. |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:06 - Apr 20 with 2361 views | yescomeon |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:01 - Apr 20 by Lohengrin |
How on earth can a governing coalition be formed with at Westminster with a party whose primary purpose is to see it dissolved? |
Have a play around with the app, see how hard it is to get a majority without the SNP. |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:06 - Apr 20 with 2357 views | yescomeon |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:05 - Apr 20 by C_jack |
And it's without a shadow of a doubt the worst possibility imaginable, utter chaos. The worst thing the Scots ever did was vote No, now they're likely to be bringing it all down from within. |
I agree they were mad to vote no. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:11 - Apr 20 with 2353 views | C_jack |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:06 - Apr 20 by yescomeon |
I agree they were mad to vote no. |
It's like a prisoner who tried to escape the facility, but failed, only then to be put in charge of running the whole thing.. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:21 - Apr 20 with 2332 views | yescomeon |
It is possible to vote SNP and vote no in an independence referendum (same goes for plaid), which is clearly what many people have done in Scotland. The Scottish people want to remain in the UK but also want the SNP to represent them I see no problem with them making up part of the government. My opinion of course. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:35 - Apr 20 with 2263 views | JimmyGilligan |
Please remember that if you plan to vote Tory, you don't have to register until Wednesday. |  | | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:50 - Apr 20 with 2249 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:05 - Apr 20 by C_jack |
And it's without a shadow of a doubt the worst possibility imaginable, utter chaos. The worst thing the Scots ever did was vote No, now they're likely to be bringing it all down from within. |
There won't be any formal coalition between Labour and the SNP. Labour can't give them any of the concessions the SNP would demand. If Labour end up being the largest party they'll govern as a minority and all the SNP will have to do is to vote with them on confidence votes, Budget etc. And the SNP will have to do that otherwise they'll be the party that allowed the Tories back into Downing Street. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 08:21 - Apr 21 with 2099 views | yescomeon |
Todays forcast:
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
Conservatives: 283
Labour: 269
SNP: 47
Lib Dems: 26
DUP: 8
Plaid Cymru: 4
SDLP: 3
UKIP: 1
Greens: 1
Other: 8
Party forcast:
Conservtives - holding steady over the last fortnight, seat loss very likely, majority very unlikely. Plurality probable.
Labour - holding steady, seat gain probable, majority very unlikely, plurality moderately unlikely.
SNP - Holding steady, seat gain almost certain.
Lib Dems - Holding steady, seat loss almost certain.
Plaid Cymru - Holding steady, seat gain probable.
Greens - Holding steady, seat loss moderately unlikely.
UKIP - holding steady, seat gain probable.
Plaid forcast for 4 seats now, I would imagine that Mon is pretty tight. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:38 - Apr 21 with 2030 views | waynekerr55 |
Genuinely can't get my head around the thought of Ed Balls in charge of the purse strings |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:02 - Apr 21 with 2008 views | johnlangy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:05 - Apr 20 by C_jack |
And it's without a shadow of a doubt the worst possibility imaginable, utter chaos. The worst thing the Scots ever did was vote No, now they're likely to be bringing it all down from within. |
Well I can think of something much worse.
Who would the Conservatives link up with to form a government ? Just think. UKIP and the DUP would take them up to about 290. Then they'd have to try begging the Lib Dems to join again (not that they will). And even then they'd still be short of a majority never mind a working one. They'd still need another ten or so. Where would they come from ?
And then, even if they manage it they'll have to spend the first two years of the next term trying to renegotiate the EU deal before the guaranteed referendum.
Now that's what I call chaos. |  | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:13 - Apr 21 with 1998 views | C_jack |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:02 - Apr 21 by johnlangy |
Well I can think of something much worse.
Who would the Conservatives link up with to form a government ? Just think. UKIP and the DUP would take them up to about 290. Then they'd have to try begging the Lib Dems to join again (not that they will). And even then they'd still be short of a majority never mind a working one. They'd still need another ten or so. Where would they come from ?
And then, even if they manage it they'll have to spend the first two years of the next term trying to renegotiate the EU deal before the guaranteed referendum.
Now that's what I call chaos. |
Don't be fooled, there will be no referendum on the EU if the Tories get back in.
They gave a 'cast iron guarantee' that there would be a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, low and behold, it never transpired, as it wasn't in the 'public interest'.
It has also become apparent that negotiations on EU reform are looking increasingly slim, as it will open the gates for the other players (i.e Netherlands and France) to air their own grievances and look to set their own demands | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 16:59 - Apr 21 with 1961 views | waynekerr55 |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:13 - Apr 21 by C_jack |
Don't be fooled, there will be no referendum on the EU if the Tories get back in.
They gave a 'cast iron guarantee' that there would be a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, low and behold, it never transpired, as it wasn't in the 'public interest'.
It has also become apparent that negotiations on EU reform are looking increasingly slim, as it will open the gates for the other players (i.e Netherlands and France) to air their own grievances and look to set their own demands |
By they I assume you mean the red Tories on the Lisbon treaty | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:06 - Apr 21 with 1961 views | johnlangy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:13 - Apr 21 by C_jack |
Don't be fooled, there will be no referendum on the EU if the Tories get back in.
They gave a 'cast iron guarantee' that there would be a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, low and behold, it never transpired, as it wasn't in the 'public interest'.
It has also become apparent that negotiations on EU reform are looking increasingly slim, as it will open the gates for the other players (i.e Netherlands and France) to air their own grievances and look to set their own demands |
You appear to be agreeing with me that this is an even worse case scenario than Labour/SNP.
The Conservatives will be begging the other parties mentioned to join them, or at least support their Queen's Speech. UKIP will say yes as long as the referendum is guaranteed plus MUCH stronger immigration controls, the LIB Dems will say yes as long as there is no referendum with immigration controls maybe the same as at present but with greater manpower to enforce the rules and I don't know what the DUP will demand. But demand they will. Probably no referendum because peripheral areas of the UK tend to do relatively well financially from the EU (a bit of a generalisation I know but just thinking of Objective 1 status for SW Wales and the valleys).
So the Conservatives will be trying to cobble together that ragbag of groups all with their own agendas. I don't think number 10's rose garden would be big enough this time. | | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:07 - Apr 21 with 1924 views | yescomeon |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:06 - Apr 21 by johnlangy |
You appear to be agreeing with me that this is an even worse case scenario than Labour/SNP.
The Conservatives will be begging the other parties mentioned to join them, or at least support their Queen's Speech. UKIP will say yes as long as the referendum is guaranteed plus MUCH stronger immigration controls, the LIB Dems will say yes as long as there is no referendum with immigration controls maybe the same as at present but with greater manpower to enforce the rules and I don't know what the DUP will demand. But demand they will. Probably no referendum because peripheral areas of the UK tend to do relatively well financially from the EU (a bit of a generalisation I know but just thinking of Objective 1 status for SW Wales and the valleys).
So the Conservatives will be trying to cobble together that ragbag of groups all with their own agendas. I don't think number 10's rose garden would be big enough this time. |
UKIP are likely to be irrelevant, latest forcast has them to only win 1 MP, I don't see them getting more than 2 or 3 myself. I doubt Lib Dems will work with UKIP and the Lib Dems will certain have more MPs than UKIP. After the last debate the had a fella from DUP on and he was saying they are after an EU referendum, not sure how much of a key issue it is. I think whoever is in government will be weak and much at the mercy of the smaller parties, be that the Lib Dems and DUP or SNP, SDLP and Plaid. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:09 - Apr 21 with 1924 views | jackonicko |
I can't see any scenario in which the Tories will try to put together a coalition of the many. They will either get the 323 seats they need for a majority (either alone or in Coalition v2 with the lib Dems) or we will have Ed as PM.
No way will they try to piece together the Lib Dems, DUP and, God forbid, UKIP in order to govern. It's too hopeless.
If it's coalition v2, then the EU referendum will disappear. It will be negotiated out in the coalition agreement and justified on the grounds that there was no democratic mandate for it to be held. Same argument as the Lib Dems had to do on tuition fees.
323 between the Tories and lib Dems looks hugely unlikely right now. So, Ed it is. |  | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:15 - Apr 21 with 1918 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:09 - Apr 21 by jackonicko |
I can't see any scenario in which the Tories will try to put together a coalition of the many. They will either get the 323 seats they need for a majority (either alone or in Coalition v2 with the lib Dems) or we will have Ed as PM.
No way will they try to piece together the Lib Dems, DUP and, God forbid, UKIP in order to govern. It's too hopeless.
If it's coalition v2, then the EU referendum will disappear. It will be negotiated out in the coalition agreement and justified on the grounds that there was no democratic mandate for it to be held. Same argument as the Lib Dems had to do on tuition fees.
323 between the Tories and lib Dems looks hugely unlikely right now. So, Ed it is. |
Tories aren't helping themselves with their increasingly hapless campaign. They have no focus, seemingly no schedule and no real message. They're latest wheeze is to bang on incessantly about the SNP. They seem to have got bored with the "long term economic plan" stuff and the attacks on Miliband's personality/character. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:38 - Apr 21 with 1901 views | jackonicko |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:15 - Apr 21 by exiledclaseboy |
Tories aren't helping themselves with their increasingly hapless campaign. They have no focus, seemingly no schedule and no real message. They're latest wheeze is to bang on incessantly about the SNP. They seem to have got bored with the "long term economic plan" stuff and the attacks on Miliband's personality/character. |
Oh, totally agree. The Tory campaign is hopeless.
Unfortunately, the phrase long term economic plan has become synonymous with cutbacks and austerity. It is seen as a negative message, not a positive. Couple that with some magician like handouts like the £8bn for the NHS, the inheritance tax wheeze and other pronouncements and people don't believe them. The strategy is incompetent.
Edited to add - and don't get me started on the blatant bribes in the council house sell off (copyright Thatcher 1980s) and the Lloyds share sell (copyright, re, Thatcher 1980sagain) and they look clueless and out of ideas. I fully expect to see Cameron on a soapbox as he moves on to the Election Strategy 1992 rip off plan.
The message on highest growth in EU, lowest unemployment in a generation, persistent low interest rates and inflation, real wage growth at long last - coupled with the fillip of an oil price through the floor increasing available spending - a ratification of Tory plan A by most internationL observers (eg IMF) - even as a volte face from their views at the time in 2010-11 - and a stock market at its highest point in history is nowhere.
Despite all of the above, the long term economic plan has somehow become a toxic phrase in the eyes of voters.
Honestly, the Tory strategists shouldn't be sacked. They should be taken out and shot. [Post edited 21 Apr 2015 19:45]
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:47 - Apr 21 with 1892 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:38 - Apr 21 by jackonicko |
Oh, totally agree. The Tory campaign is hopeless.
Unfortunately, the phrase long term economic plan has become synonymous with cutbacks and austerity. It is seen as a negative message, not a positive. Couple that with some magician like handouts like the £8bn for the NHS, the inheritance tax wheeze and other pronouncements and people don't believe them. The strategy is incompetent.
Edited to add - and don't get me started on the blatant bribes in the council house sell off (copyright Thatcher 1980s) and the Lloyds share sell (copyright, re, Thatcher 1980sagain) and they look clueless and out of ideas. I fully expect to see Cameron on a soapbox as he moves on to the Election Strategy 1992 rip off plan.
The message on highest growth in EU, lowest unemployment in a generation, persistent low interest rates and inflation, real wage growth at long last - coupled with the fillip of an oil price through the floor increasing available spending - a ratification of Tory plan A by most internationL observers (eg IMF) - even as a volte face from their views at the time in 2010-11 - and a stock market at its highest point in history is nowhere.
Despite all of the above, the long term economic plan has somehow become a toxic phrase in the eyes of voters.
Honestly, the Tory strategists shouldn't be sacked. They should be taken out and shot. [Post edited 21 Apr 2015 19:45]
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While you and I have different views on the viability or otherwise of the message, I completely agree that's what their message would be. People instinctively trust the Tories more on the economy but they've managed to give Labour a fairly free ride on it. And then of course they started making spending commitments with no idea how to even pretend to know how they'd fund them. They went negative too quickly when the polls didn't move the way the expected them to and now they're stuck there. Although this is the same Tory party that couldn't win a majority five years ago when up against a universally derided Labour government and PM.
Still a long way to go though. [Post edited 21 Apr 2015 19:49]
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:54 - Apr 21 with 1886 views | libertine |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:52 - Apr 19 by perchrockjack |
Intelligent Leanne eh.
Well, I ask folks to imagine how she is perceived away from Wales.
At lease everyone from Penzance tompenrith leannevis from the r h on da valley, the poorest, most depressed area.
What image does that conjure up |
Mr Perch,
in honesty who the hell cares what the rest of UK thinks of Leanne? At this time it doesn't really matter its what the welsh people think of her that's important.
Shes quite obviously not public schoolboy educated like the fox hunters and the plastic tories! But she is intelligent enough to realise that we are making bad decisions in wales which really are effecting our economy,
I agree with Monmouth about aspiring to the scanda countries rather than the USA, that makes a lot of sense but just giving the government more money from taxes does not mean they will spend it wisely, they may increase taxes and spend it on London or Nothern Powerhouse exercises, these are not going to help us in wales.
this labour government is just moronic and the labour councillors are idiots spoke to one today who said what the point in increasing the "barnet" formulae we still won't get any money down here, I mean these people are idiots and they make important decisions upon our lives. They automatically believe that they are the only party that have good ideas, so bigoted.
Welsh public procurement averages out at 53% using welsh local business, that is appalling Germany 99% and France 98%, we have become a country ruled by the big corporations its shameful and its successive labour government who've put us here.
Spoke to a highup politician in Swansea who said
The council would like to support local business but the EU stops them!
Well if that's the case join UKIP then and get out of the EU, it makes no sense, they are just in it for the easy ride, they are shameful and thick. |  | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:58 - Apr 21 with 1885 views | jackonicko |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:47 - Apr 21 by exiledclaseboy |
While you and I have different views on the viability or otherwise of the message, I completely agree that's what their message would be. People instinctively trust the Tories more on the economy but they've managed to give Labour a fairly free ride on it. And then of course they started making spending commitments with no idea how to even pretend to know how they'd fund them. They went negative too quickly when the polls didn't move the way the expected them to and now they're stuck there. Although this is the same Tory party that couldn't win a majority five years ago when up against a universally derided Labour government and PM.
Still a long way to go though. [Post edited 21 Apr 2015 19:49]
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Didn't expect you to agree with the message! - Not even I agree with all of that message in reality. Just furious agreement on what the message *should* be coming from CCHQ - but isn't!
Do I want to see the Tories back in? Yes, for sure. But they haven't been perfect in Government and some of the best things coming from the coalition have annoyingly been from the Lib Dems. I actually feel a bit sorry for the Lib Dems as they will pay a higher price next month.
But I am struggling to understand how the Tories can manage to lose it from here. They should be riding high and getting a mandate for the next 5 years on their own majority. Unfortunately it's not really a long way to go and I cannot see how they can turn it around from here.
Still. When we get Ed M, Ed B and a toxic influence from the SNP, I'll be on here saying told you so. Don't worry. | | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 20:06 - Apr 21 with 1874 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:58 - Apr 21 by jackonicko |
Didn't expect you to agree with the message! - Not even I agree with all of that message in reality. Just furious agreement on what the message *should* be coming from CCHQ - but isn't!
Do I want to see the Tories back in? Yes, for sure. But they haven't been perfect in Government and some of the best things coming from the coalition have annoyingly been from the Lib Dems. I actually feel a bit sorry for the Lib Dems as they will pay a higher price next month.
But I am struggling to understand how the Tories can manage to lose it from here. They should be riding high and getting a mandate for the next 5 years on their own majority. Unfortunately it's not really a long way to go and I cannot see how they can turn it around from here.
Still. When we get Ed M, Ed B and a toxic influence from the SNP, I'll be on here saying told you so. Don't worry. |
I was just trying to make you feel better. 
Agree about the LibDems. While I can understand the anger of many natural Labour voters who voted LibDem last time they're actually going to be victims of the electorate's inexperience/immaturity about the nature of coalition. I read through their manifesto the other day and it's mostly traditional, slightly left of centre common sense. But I can't, won't vote for a party that will prop up a Tory government, especially this most distasteful of Tory governments. And that's me displaying exactly the type of immaturity about the nature of coalitions that I just mentioned. But fptp coalitions will always be weighted far too heavily to one party. PR coalitions are different. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 20:39 - Apr 21 with 1860 views | libertine |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 20:06 - Apr 21 by exiledclaseboy |
I was just trying to make you feel better.
Agree about the LibDems. While I can understand the anger of many natural Labour voters who voted LibDem last time they're actually going to be victims of the electorate's inexperience/immaturity about the nature of coalition. I read through their manifesto the other day and it's mostly traditional, slightly left of centre common sense. But I can't, won't vote for a party that will prop up a Tory government, especially this most distasteful of Tory governments. And that's me displaying exactly the type of immaturity about the nature of coalitions that I just mentioned. But fptp coalitions will always be weighted far too heavily to one party. PR coalitions are different. |
what about a borgen coalition
that seems to work sometimes | | | |
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