The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread 20:33 - Apr 7 with 82763 views | exiledclaseboy | About time we had one and it's got the word "official" in the title so that makes all the difference. If a mod wants to sticky it, feel free. I seem to remember that five years ago (on the old, better Planet Swans) we got to nearly 100 pages and then another 60odd with the "aftermath" thread. They were good fun but there were more posters then and we were all a bit more tolerant of others' views. Let's try to be nice to each other, eh. Anyway, best site for opinion polls is this one in my experience: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ Polls are so tight the only conclusion is that the Tories and Labour are head to head nationwide. Can't put a whisker between them. Tories need about 39-40% for an overall majority. Labour will probably get one on 36-37%. God bless our ridiculous voting system. So, enjoy yourselves. I'll start with a prediction. Labour to win most seats but slightly fewer votes than the Tories and end up forming some kind of minority government with support from various parliamentary lefties on a vote by vote basis. And then all of a sudden many Tory supporters will discover that they've always hated first past the post and can't understand why we perpetuate a system under which the party which more people voted for than any other can lose the election. It'll be quite funny and lead to calls for a proper voting system. Which everyone will forget about in six months when all the fuss has died down. What say you? | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:13 - Apr 18 with 1891 views | Highjack |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:16 - Apr 18 by yescomeon | It is my view that it is not a fair comparison of those parties in a European election as UKIPs main focus is Europe. I have a bias though. |
Well Plaid's main focus is Wales allegedly but that doesn't stop them being the fourth biggest party here. Mainly because most people don't care about their views. Whilst UKIP are the first party outside the Lab/Con to win a national election outright and yet the 'carefully chosen broadly representative' audience were to a man booing and hissing. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:29 - Apr 18 with 1883 views | exiledclaseboy |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:13 - Apr 18 by Highjack | Well Plaid's main focus is Wales allegedly but that doesn't stop them being the fourth biggest party here. Mainly because most people don't care about their views. Whilst UKIP are the first party outside the Lab/Con to win a national election outright and yet the 'carefully chosen broadly representative' audience were to a man booing and hissing. |
UKIP is currently polling between 10-15%. Farage got a couple of rounds of applause. The whole of the audience was not against him but it's a fact that of the five parties represented four were left of centre. So it was representative. And Farage was rattled because he was outside his comfort zone of being in like minded company. There's no conspiracy here, apart from the age old myth that the BBC is rabidly left wing. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:51 - Apr 18 with 1858 views | C_jack |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:29 - Apr 18 by exiledclaseboy | UKIP is currently polling between 10-15%. Farage got a couple of rounds of applause. The whole of the audience was not against him but it's a fact that of the five parties represented four were left of centre. So it was representative. And Farage was rattled because he was outside his comfort zone of being in like minded company. There's no conspiracy here, apart from the age old myth that the BBC is rabidly left wing. |
So the audience only needs to be representative of who's in the building? Not the electorate as a whole? So for arguments sake, if we substituted Green, Plaid and Labour, for UKIP, Conservative, and for arguments sake, the BNP, then the audience would be representative of those three? Like 'eck would it. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:00 - Apr 18 with 1849 views | exiledclaseboy |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:51 - Apr 18 by C_jack | So the audience only needs to be representative of who's in the building? Not the electorate as a whole? So for arguments sake, if we substituted Green, Plaid and Labour, for UKIP, Conservative, and for arguments sake, the BNP, then the audience would be representative of those three? Like 'eck would it. |
Well Dimbleby said to Farage when Nige was having his tantrum that the audience had been chosen (independently) to represent "all the parties", not "the electorate". I took that to mean representative of all the parties at the debate. Which is why it apparently skewed so much against Farage and his simple-minded "foreigners are to blame for everything" single issue schtick. I'd like to see the debate you outlined though. It'd be interesting to note just how much common ground there is between those three parties. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:21 - Apr 18 with 1820 views | C_jack |
Sadly, it's a regional special, only broadcast in England (probably BBC midlands) We'll be stuck with 'Ask Leanne', with the sweaties having 'Ask Nicola', alongside the QT special with the 3 opposition leaders on the national channel. It won't be on the box unless you're inclined to go deep diving in the backwaters of the TV guide for each regional channel [Post edited 18 Apr 2015 14:23]
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:26 - Apr 18 with 1805 views | exiledclaseboy |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:21 - Apr 18 by C_jack | Sadly, it's a regional special, only broadcast in England (probably BBC midlands) We'll be stuck with 'Ask Leanne', with the sweaties having 'Ask Nicola', alongside the QT special with the 3 opposition leaders on the national channel. It won't be on the box unless you're inclined to go deep diving in the backwaters of the TV guide for each regional channel [Post edited 18 Apr 2015 14:23]
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To be fair, I agree that the Farage one should be broadcast nationwide seeing as they're fielding candidates across GB. Are UKIP putting someone up in every seat this time, do you know? The QT special only has one opposition leader by the way. Miliband. Cameron and Clegg are the other two. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:30 - Apr 18 with 1800 views | C_jack |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:26 - Apr 18 by exiledclaseboy | To be fair, I agree that the Farage one should be broadcast nationwide seeing as they're fielding candidates across GB. Are UKIP putting someone up in every seat this time, do you know? The QT special only has one opposition leader by the way. Miliband. Cameron and Clegg are the other two. |
I believe they have someone 'challenging' for every seat , even in Scotland, which is bizarre, but amusing as I can't imagine the candidates there canvassing the streets with 'vote for us and we'll get you less money' [Post edited 18 Apr 2015 14:31]
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:34 - Apr 18 with 1790 views | exiledclaseboy |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:30 - Apr 18 by C_jack | I believe they have someone 'challenging' for every seat , even in Scotland, which is bizarre, but amusing as I can't imagine the candidates there canvassing the streets with 'vote for us and we'll get you less money' [Post edited 18 Apr 2015 14:31]
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They're telling Wales the same thing and they're polling pretty well here, in line with the national average for UKIP I believe. Odd. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:45 - Apr 18 with 1780 views | C_jack | They propose scrapping the Barnett formula, to give 'Wales and England a fairer deal'. So on the face of it Wales would benefit, what the alternative would be, I don't think they've ever said, but considering public spending is said to be £500 more per person in Scotland, than Wales, I'm all for it. They would also make St Davids Day a bank holiday as well, who doesn't want more public holidays. They have 14 in Germany. [Post edited 18 Apr 2015 14:45]
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:21 - Apr 18 with 1696 views | libertine |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:45 - Apr 18 by C_jack | They propose scrapping the Barnett formula, to give 'Wales and England a fairer deal'. So on the face of it Wales would benefit, what the alternative would be, I don't think they've ever said, but considering public spending is said to be £500 more per person in Scotland, than Wales, I'm all for it. They would also make St Davids Day a bank holiday as well, who doesn't want more public holidays. They have 14 in Germany. [Post edited 18 Apr 2015 14:45]
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I remember the same attitude when I worked in a factory, I was in the supposed top trade of electrical whereas the painter was in the bottom trade of painter but despite the fact that the electrical team had much more training and qualifications then most other trades definitely the painter. The pay was exactly the same throughout all the trades. the attitude of the other electricals really surprised me, "why is that painter getting as much money as us, reduce his pay" I was the shop steward and would say to the boys "no, why reduce his pay we should increase ours" I don't think they ever got what that actually meant, thick tw@s | | | |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 09:15 - Apr 19 with 1603 views | exiledclaseboy | Three polls out today. Four point Tory lead in one, three point Labour lead in another, Tories and Labour neck and neck in the third. Go figure. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 10:29 - Apr 19 with 1577 views | libertine | come on Monmouth !!!!!! I've layed the glove down!!!! when did chukka say its allright to employ a national? he didn't say it! i'd be happy to be proved wrong | | | |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 10:56 - Apr 19 with 1568 views | jackonicko |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 09:15 - Apr 19 by exiledclaseboy | Three polls out today. Four point Tory lead in one, three point Labour lead in another, Tories and Labour neck and neck in the third. Go figure. |
But due to election maths, all three polls indicate Ed M as the new PM. As you can imagine, delighted by this. | | | |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 11:04 - Apr 19 with 1559 views | exiledclaseboy |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 10:56 - Apr 19 by jackonicko | But due to election maths, all three polls indicate Ed M as the new PM. As you can imagine, delighted by this. |
Not quite. The four point Tory lead (36-32) would probably leave them short of a majority but with enough to govern on their own or (more likely) with the LibDems again. But it wouldn't be stable. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:20 - Apr 19 with 1526 views | libertine |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 10:56 - Apr 19 by jackonicko | But due to election maths, all three polls indicate Ed M as the new PM. As you can imagine, delighted by this. |
Mr Cameron said that 1 third of all new jobs have gone to foreign nationals, this is a disgusting figure why on earth would any country want to give their jobs to foreigners, its quite absurd to think that is OK. Just for a minute think if that was your job that was given to a foreigner, i'm sure you would be very unhappy. Labour are quite happy for this insanity to continue. Plaid have said that they will interpret procurement guidance from the EU in the proper way so that the welsh jobs go to local welsh workers, we have enough unemployment of our own to deal with. Labour are not at all interested in welsh people, simply because its safe for them so why bother to help us as we'll vote for them anyway? I will keep you all posted after what happens in tomorrows meeting with Welsh government. | | | |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:40 - Apr 19 with 1518 views | libertine |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:20 - Apr 19 by libertine | Mr Cameron said that 1 third of all new jobs have gone to foreign nationals, this is a disgusting figure why on earth would any country want to give their jobs to foreigners, its quite absurd to think that is OK. Just for a minute think if that was your job that was given to a foreigner, i'm sure you would be very unhappy. Labour are quite happy for this insanity to continue. Plaid have said that they will interpret procurement guidance from the EU in the proper way so that the welsh jobs go to local welsh workers, we have enough unemployment of our own to deal with. Labour are not at all interested in welsh people, simply because its safe for them so why bother to help us as we'll vote for them anyway? I will keep you all posted after what happens in tomorrows meeting with Welsh government. |
sunday politics watch it i'm in love with Leanne shes brilliant fair play to her, she's saying exactly what we need. what an intelligent woman, bottom of the list thats plainly obvious isn't it considering how many welsh people there are. Come on girl take those slave labour turks !!!!!!! | | | |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:47 - Apr 19 with 1510 views | Starsky |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:40 - Apr 19 by libertine | sunday politics watch it i'm in love with Leanne shes brilliant fair play to her, she's saying exactly what we need. what an intelligent woman, bottom of the list thats plainly obvious isn't it considering how many welsh people there are. Come on girl take those slave labour turks !!!!!!! |
Leanne Austerity her voice drives me cold. Small time politics. | |
| It's just the internet, init. |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:55 - Apr 19 with 1505 views | londonlisa2001 |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 10:56 - Apr 19 by jackonicko | But due to election maths, all three polls indicate Ed M as the new PM. As you can imagine, delighted by this. |
Don't forget that there is a tendency for the actual results to favour the conservatives more than the polling results, largely because people like to be seen as more 'left wing' than they actually are. I think, unfortunately, that the vote for UKIP will also be higher than polling suggests, because people will not want to be seen as 'racist' but will vote for them privately. Too close to call at the moment. | | | |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:59 - Apr 19 with 1500 views | jackonicko |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:55 - Apr 19 by londonlisa2001 | Don't forget that there is a tendency for the actual results to favour the conservatives more than the polling results, largely because people like to be seen as more 'left wing' than they actually are. I think, unfortunately, that the vote for UKIP will also be higher than polling suggests, because people will not want to be seen as 'racist' but will vote for them privately. Too close to call at the moment. |
Whilst the 1992 effect gives comfort, like you I fear the fractured politics of 2015 will lessen the impact. The English need to come out for Cameron, with the scots voting SNP and I'm more than happy for the welsh to vote for Leanne. But my head says that it won't happen. Ed as Prime Minister - wow. Just wow. | | | |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:13 - Apr 19 with 1488 views | exiledclaseboy |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:55 - Apr 19 by londonlisa2001 | Don't forget that there is a tendency for the actual results to favour the conservatives more than the polling results, largely because people like to be seen as more 'left wing' than they actually are. I think, unfortunately, that the vote for UKIP will also be higher than polling suggests, because people will not want to be seen as 'racist' but will vote for them privately. Too close to call at the moment. |
Not sure that first part is true these days. It certainly used to be an issue but since the great polling debacle of 1992 they adjust to take it into account. I also think the UKIP vote may be lower as people move back to their "natural" Tory (and to a lesser extent, Labour) homes closer to polling day. I'm not trying to disagree with you deliberately though. It's definitely too close to call. What the national polls don't show is the impact the SNP's rise will have on Labour's chances of a majority. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:16 - Apr 19 with 1486 views | exiledclaseboy |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 12:59 - Apr 19 by jackonicko | Whilst the 1992 effect gives comfort, like you I fear the fractured politics of 2015 will lessen the impact. The English need to come out for Cameron, with the scots voting SNP and I'm more than happy for the welsh to vote for Leanne. But my head says that it won't happen. Ed as Prime Minister - wow. Just wow. |
Isn't it exciting. New Ministers also make my job more interesting. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:22 - Apr 19 with 1477 views | yescomeon | The more people vote for Ukip, the more likely a labour government is. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:24 - Apr 19 with 1476 views | exiledclaseboy |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:22 - Apr 19 by yescomeon | The more people vote for Ukip, the more likely a labour government is. |
In theory, but likely to be negated by Labour's losses to the SNP in Scotland. | |
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The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:31 - Apr 19 with 1464 views | yescomeon |
The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:24 - Apr 19 by exiledclaseboy | In theory, but likely to be negated by Labour's losses to the SNP in Scotland. |
Have the Lib Dems not ruled out working with UKIP? | |
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