| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread 20:33 - Apr 7 with 83282 views | exiledclaseboy |
About time we had one and it's got the word "official" in the title so that makes all the difference. If a mod wants to sticky it, feel free.
I seem to remember that five years ago (on the old, better Planet Swans) we got to nearly 100 pages and then another 60odd with the "aftermath" thread. They were good fun but there were more posters then and we were all a bit more tolerant of others' views. Let's try to be nice to each other, eh.
Anyway, best site for opinion polls is this one in my experience:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Polls are so tight the only conclusion is that the Tories and Labour are head to head nationwide. Can't put a whisker between them.
Tories need about 39-40% for an overall majority. Labour will probably get one on 36-37%. God bless our ridiculous voting system.
So, enjoy yourselves. I'll start with a prediction. Labour to win most seats but slightly fewer votes than the Tories and end up forming some kind of minority government with support from various parliamentary lefties on a vote by vote basis. And then all of a sudden many Tory supporters will discover that they've always hated first past the post and can't understand why we perpetuate a system under which the party which more people voted for than any other can lose the election. It'll be quite funny and lead to calls for a proper voting system. Which everyone will forget about in six months when all the fuss has died down.
What say you? |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:46 - Apr 25 with 1825 views | trampie |
Leanne looking very regal yesterday on the box, she was interviewed by Allegra Stratton in a lovely setting, the Newsnight's political editor apparently said of Leanne that she is ''A very admirably modest politician'', bet she doesn't say that about many other politicians.
There was clips of Leanne trying to coach Allegra over and over so the interviewer could say Cymru, it seemed like her Cambridge education didn't do her much good in that instance. lol. [Post edited 25 Apr 2015 20:25]
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:54 - Apr 25 with 1809 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 16:46 - Apr 24 by londonlisa2001 |
The longer this goes on, the more I feel that there are two possibilities for PM on May 7th and yet only one possibility for a government. Why? Well I cannot for the life of me see how a government formed of Labour and SNP will get anything at all done. They are so fundamentally different in their inherent beliefs, that unless one is prepared to give up one of its basic manifesto pledges in order to get power at any cost, they have no starting point (other than a dislike of the Tories).
They may, as has been mentioned, tinker a tiny bit round the edges (mansion tax etc) but that's about it. One believes in trying to balance the books at least a bit and one doesn't. It's really as simple as that. It actually, as bizarre at it seems, makes more sense for a Conservative / Labour coalition around trying to get the deficit down (with compromise on both sides around exactly what cuts can be made and where) than it does to see the Labour / SNP try to force themselves into some sort of utterly unsustainable pact.
I guess in many ways, the article is alluding to that.
On a wider point, I was talking yesterday to a political strategist / public affairs guy (who I met at a completely unrelated work event and who was party neutral, albeit from what he was saying, was definitely left leaning) who said that they are starting to believe that the polling may be giving the wrong projections and that there is some thought that the Lib Dems will retain more seats than projected, UKIP will get a couple more (albeit not many) and the Tories will get a stronger vote than currently projected as well.
Interesting indeed. [Post edited 21 May 2016 18:15]
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Re: the last bit, I think that may be a reaction to the fact that most politicos expected the Tories to be well ahead by now. The reasoning amongst most experts was that once the campaign got underway, people would be so spooked by Miliband that the Tory lead would be a comfortable one. That hasn't happened, Miliband hasn't been the drag on his party that everyone expected and has performed in a far more assured way than anticipated. Thus, the polls are stuck at deadlock.
On the other point, if we end up with a Labour/SNP arrangement, the SNP won't really have to vote in favour of any of Labour's schtick that they don't like. if the numbers are right, abstaining will allow a minority government to survive as long as they support them on confidence votes etc. They'll have to do that otherwise they'll be the part that allowed the Tories back into government. Cameron's main hope is that either he wins more seats than currently anticipated or that the LibDems do hold on to more of their seats (as your mate suggests). It's a possibility but who knows. The majority of the UK usually vote for centre-left parties, the left/centre left vote has always been more fragmented by always makes up more than 50% nationwide. Pretty much the only reason that Cameron isn't heading for a majority this time around is UKIP splitting the usually united centre right/right leaning vote.
It seems far more likely that there'll be an anti-Tory majority in the Commons on 8 May, although the Tories may be the largest party in terms of seats and votes. The scenario in the article may not be too outlandish perhaps, should be fun to watch. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:55 - Apr 25 with 1808 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:43 - Apr 25 by perchrockjack |
No it doesn't ux.dont fall into the trap of seeing things at face value.
No it's not...
Btw..
You vote as you want, not as has been the norm.
Really,some incredible life long labour babes on here.
Tory scum |
What about life long Tory voters? There are millions in various parts of the country. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:04 - Apr 25 with 1790 views | perchrockjack |
Same applies but it's utterly irrelevant here as its labour only..on here
Anyway, it's a nice day here |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:08 - Apr 25 with 1785 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:04 - Apr 25 by perchrockjack |
Same applies but it's utterly irrelevant here as its labour only..on here
Anyway, it's a nice day here |
Well it's clearly not Labour only on here. You're not, Jackonicko's not, I haven't voted for them for decades and the biggest percentage on Scooby's poll voted for UKIP. [Post edited 25 Apr 2015 17:34]
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:32 - Apr 25 with 1736 views | johnlangy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 10:52 - Apr 25 by cockneyswan |
Speaking for myself I've only ever voted Labour, (I've lived in Wales for 33+years) , However I now believe after watching the SNP situation in Scotland the Nationalist (Plaid Cymru) Route is the way to go for anyone living in Wales. As Leanne Wood states independence is a very long term goal ( she understands Wales are nowhere near ready to self govern itself yet). However she does not want Wales to be reliant on Westminster "hand-outs" for evermore. This I believe is a very "laudable" position for Plaid Cymru, and the reason why I could be voting Plaid Cymru for the first time. The only problem for me living in Pembrokeshire is that the only way to get "shot " of the Tories is to vote Labour at the mo, a dilemma for me. |
Good on you cockney. | | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:38 - Apr 25 with 1726 views | londonlisa2001 |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:54 - Apr 25 by exiledclaseboy |
Re: the last bit, I think that may be a reaction to the fact that most politicos expected the Tories to be well ahead by now. The reasoning amongst most experts was that once the campaign got underway, people would be so spooked by Miliband that the Tory lead would be a comfortable one. That hasn't happened, Miliband hasn't been the drag on his party that everyone expected and has performed in a far more assured way than anticipated. Thus, the polls are stuck at deadlock.
On the other point, if we end up with a Labour/SNP arrangement, the SNP won't really have to vote in favour of any of Labour's schtick that they don't like. if the numbers are right, abstaining will allow a minority government to survive as long as they support them on confidence votes etc. They'll have to do that otherwise they'll be the part that allowed the Tories back into government. Cameron's main hope is that either he wins more seats than currently anticipated or that the LibDems do hold on to more of their seats (as your mate suggests). It's a possibility but who knows. The majority of the UK usually vote for centre-left parties, the left/centre left vote has always been more fragmented by always makes up more than 50% nationwide. Pretty much the only reason that Cameron isn't heading for a majority this time around is UKIP splitting the usually united centre right/right leaning vote.
It seems far more likely that there'll be an anti-Tory majority in the Commons on 8 May, although the Tories may be the largest party in terms of seats and votes. The scenario in the article may not be too outlandish perhaps, should be fun to watch. |
Yes that could be right.
He said that the strategist people though believe that the usual adjustment that they make for people voting slightly more 'right' than they admit to in polls, is not enough this time simply because people believe that voting 'for austerity' makes them seem selfish.
I don't disagree with what you say about the SNP abstaining, but I'm not sure the numbers will allow much through if they do that (depends on the Lib MPs of course) - as I said, I think Labour can survive it, just that they won't be able to actually do much. I personally think we'll end up with the Tories as the biggest party (and by more than some think) but will end up with Milliband as PM. | | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:40 - Apr 25 with 1724 views | Uxbridge |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 14:43 - Apr 25 by perchrockjack |
No it doesn't ux.dont fall into the trap of seeing things at face value.
No it's not...
Btw..
You vote as you want, not as has been the norm.
Really,some incredible life long labour babes on here.
Tory scum |
Well I'm probably going to vote either Plaid or Green. Not sure when I last voted Labour. Probably for Red Ken when I lived down the smoke. |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:53 - Apr 25 with 1720 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:38 - Apr 25 by londonlisa2001 |
Yes that could be right.
He said that the strategist people though believe that the usual adjustment that they make for people voting slightly more 'right' than they admit to in polls, is not enough this time simply because people believe that voting 'for austerity' makes them seem selfish.
I don't disagree with what you say about the SNP abstaining, but I'm not sure the numbers will allow much through if they do that (depends on the Lib MPs of course) - as I said, I think Labour can survive it, just that they won't be able to actually do much. I personally think we'll end up with the Tories as the biggest party (and by more than some think) but will end up with Milliband as PM. |
Yup, wouldn't be at all surprised if that happens. Then we could be in "constitutional crisis" territory, with everyone up in arms that the party which won the most votes and seats can't form a government. And then I shall sit here feeling smug about my constant banging on about our sh*tty voting system is vindicated. 
The irony being of course that any change to the voting system is likely to make one party majority government a thing of the past. And I'm all for that too. Works pretty much everywhere else. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:11 - Apr 25 with 1713 views | londonlisa2001 |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:53 - Apr 25 by exiledclaseboy |
Yup, wouldn't be at all surprised if that happens. Then we could be in "constitutional crisis" territory, with everyone up in arms that the party which won the most votes and seats can't form a government. And then I shall sit here feeling smug about my constant banging on about our sh*tty voting system is vindicated.
The irony being of course that any change to the voting system is likely to make one party majority government a thing of the past. And I'm all for that too. Works pretty much everywhere else. |
yep - I have wanted a change for years.
Ironically, if Cameron had listened to the Libs on voting reform then the Tories would probably have won this election with a majority.
The biggest issue for me to be honest is I'd like to see a change to the entire system - none of the parties represent how I feel given that economically I'm 'right wing' (in terms of wanting a sensible, balance the books, private enterprise approach, albeit I believe the cuts are being made in the wrong place and not enough is done to raise money from the very rich) but socially I'm probably more 'left wing' than epaul :-) | | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:17 - Apr 25 with 1707 views | perchrockjack |
Not all and of course that was to provoke ,but, not seen anyone admit to being a Tory voter.jackonico would be a brave man to admit.
Btw, I'm not a Tory voter but I might vote Tory this time mainly because I m in fear of vetted cooper. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:20 - Apr 25 with 1704 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:11 - Apr 25 by londonlisa2001 |
yep - I have wanted a change for years.
Ironically, if Cameron had listened to the Libs on voting reform then the Tories would probably have won this election with a majority.
The biggest issue for me to be honest is I'd like to see a change to the entire system - none of the parties represent how I feel given that economically I'm 'right wing' (in terms of wanting a sensible, balance the books, private enterprise approach, albeit I believe the cuts are being made in the wrong place and not enough is done to raise money from the very rich) but socially I'm probably more 'left wing' than epaul :-) |
You strike me a a classic "one-nation Tory", to be honest. That's not meant as a criticism, pre-Thatcher Tory Party was nothing like it is now, and it's based entirely on my observations on your posts on here so I don't mean any offence or to make any judgements on someone I've never met. But you're clearly socially liberal and your economic views (as you've said) are clearly conservative. In the '80s you'd probably have been attracted to the SDP.
Of course, being a one nation Tory means that you probably have a very dim view of today's Tory party, which is full of spite and vindictiveness.
No offence meant! [Post edited 25 Apr 2015 18:44]
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:37 - Apr 25 with 1689 views | londonlisa2001 |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:20 - Apr 25 by exiledclaseboy |
You strike me a a classic "one-nation Tory", to be honest. That's not meant as a criticism, pre-Thatcher Tory Party was nothing like it is now, and it's based entirely on my observations on your posts on here so I don't mean any offence or to make any judgements on someone I've never met. But you're clearly socially liberal and your economic views (as you've said) are clearly conservative. In the '80s you'd probably have been attracted to the SDP.
Of course, being a one nation Tory means that you probably have a very dim view of today's Tory party, which is full of spite and vindictiveness.
No offence meant! [Post edited 25 Apr 2015 18:44]
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none taken.
Yes - I was a supporter of the SDP. These days am closest to the Liberal party on most things, but am struggling this time due to my intense hatred of the mansion tax which I believe (as I've said before) to be utterly unfair (and I'm in a straight out Labour vs Conservative seat with Labour incumbent). I genuinely haven't yet decided.
My main gripe with both Tories and Labour is the element of spite and vindictiveness to be honest. | | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:42 - Apr 25 with 1686 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:37 - Apr 25 by londonlisa2001 |
none taken.
Yes - I was a supporter of the SDP. These days am closest to the Liberal party on most things, but am struggling this time due to my intense hatred of the mansion tax which I believe (as I've said before) to be utterly unfair (and I'm in a straight out Labour vs Conservative seat with Labour incumbent). I genuinely haven't yet decided.
My main gripe with both Tories and Labour is the element of spite and vindictiveness to be honest. |
Fair enough. You know I don't agree on the mansion tax so there's no point going there again. On manifestos alone, I'd be voting LibDem but as I said to Jackonicko the other day, I won't vote for a party that will at the drop of a hat consolidate the Tories in government. So it's Labour for me this time. I think. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:23 - Apr 25 with 1659 views | trampie |
Interesting line up on the Andrew Marr Show tomorrow, Ed Miliband, Boris Johnson and Leanne Wood. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:29 - Apr 25 with 1654 views | Cottsy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 19:23 - Apr 25 by trampie |
Interesting line up on the Andrew Marr Show tomorrow, Ed Miliband, Boris Johnson and Leanne Wood. |
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| If man evolved from monkeys why do we still have monkeys? |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 20:39 - Apr 25 with 1600 views | trampie |
As the loose alliance of progressive parties have been saying:-
Vote Plaid in Wales
Green in England
And SNP in Scotland.
Its the way forward.  | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 20:57 - Apr 25 with 1579 views | jackonicko |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:17 - Apr 25 by perchrockjack |
Not all and of course that was to provoke ,but, not seen anyone admit to being a Tory voter.jackonico would be a brave man to admit.
Btw, I'm not a Tory voter but I might vote Tory this time mainly because I m in fear of vetted cooper. |
More than once, Perch. Even on this very thread. |  | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 21:27 - Apr 25 with 1540 views | jack_lord |
I spoke to a friend in the home office this morning. I asked what Government they are preparing for. His answer was succinct. There has been a factual brief for coalition negotiations plus red tinge and blue tinge and they have highlighted other policies.
Please people, don't be complacent in your voting. Get your asses to the voting station on polling day and do what is right. I have my own dilemma. Do I back the Lib Dem candidate as it is neck and neck in my constituency or vote with my party and risk letting a Conservative candidate win a seat as it is that close. |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 22:07 - Apr 25 with 1513 views | oh_tommy_tommy |
Seriously people
Vote conservative & you are no longer a decent human being .
Please vote - just don't vote for the biggest bunch of C@@ts in modern history. |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 22:10 - Apr 25 with 1509 views | Gundog |
God help us if Miliband and the nationalists get to grip on this country.
We are on the right way to economic recovery now, the last thing Britain needs now
is this shower of shit driving us back to the past. | |
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