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Given Parliament has approved the UK Bombings of ISIS in Syria - if we roll things forward 2-6 months - where do we think we will be? (Might be interesting to look back at these predictions in 6 months - after yesterday's House of Commons debate).
Possible options and could be a mix of these options (and not limited to these options).
1. ISIS surrenders or sues for peace as coalition bombing campaign wears them down.
2. No progress made - ISIS hides underground - stalemate.
3. No progress made - ISIS hides underground - calls for 'boots on the ground'.
4. No progress made - calls by Cameron for Assad to be replaced - as Free Syrian Army will not fight ISIS - if he is in power. Russia keeps backing Assad.
5. Assad's Syrian Army strengthens its position with Russian help and starts pushing Al Nusra and Free Syrian Army back. Palmyra symbolically recaptured. Assad in a position to take on ISIS. Cameron calls for Assad to be replaced.
6. UK plane suffers mechanical failure and pilot/s captured by ISIS or captured and killed mistakenly by Free Syrian Army.
7. ISIS atrocity in UK.
8. Pressure put on Assad by Russia to stand down. Free Syrian Army joins Syrian Army and attacks ISIS and capture Raqqa. U.K. commits £1bn of the £125bn cost for the rebuilding of Syria.
9. US and UK launch boots on the ground and take Raqqa - after UK parliament authorised 'boots on the ground strategy'. US and UK build large military bases in and around Raqqa - which come under insurgent attacks.
10. ISIS strengthens its position in Libya. UK Parliament vote to start bombing ISIS in Libya.
11. Any others you can think of.
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UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 02:39 - Dec 3 with 3172 views
11. It all goes 'tits up'. Coalition planes mistakenly shot down by Russian air fence system and tit for tat incidents snowball out of control. World close to nuclear war. Cameron blames it all on Hilary Benn.
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UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 02:46 - Dec 3 with 3166 views
'Air strikes 'will help mobilise forces inside Syria' Posted at 07:29 Michael Fallon BBC Michael Fallon says that while air attacks are going on against Islamic State targets, "eventually some ground forces can be mobilised inside Syria to deal with Daesh [Islamic State] once and for all".
Which is great assuming they're only in Syria, which of course they're not. Still, at least the great successes of Afganistan and Iraq give this plan some credibility....ah
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UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 11:34 - Dec 3 with 3034 views
The question is will Russia arm the Kurds ?, if they do the Kurds will start beating IS and other groups in Syria which in turn could lead to Turkey taking action against the Kurds with NATO and America possibly getting behind Turkey and Russia getting behind the Kurds.
Continually being banned by Planet Swans for Porthcawl and then being reinstated.
UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 05:25 - Dec 3 by Cooperman
I fear for #7 and hope that our intelligence agencies are on top of their game.
I do as well and whilst I am against the bombings I don't think yesterday's decision makes much or any difference. We are and remain a huge target for ISIS whether we bomb them or, not.
Planet Swans Prediction League Winner Season 2013-14. Runner up 2014_15.
UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 12:16 - Dec 3 by trampie
The question is will Russia arm the Kurds ?, if they do the Kurds will start beating IS and other groups in Syria which in turn could lead to Turkey taking action against the Kurds with NATO and America possibly getting behind Turkey and Russia getting behind the Kurds.
Turkey will not be allowed to attack the Kurds.
An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it.
UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 11:34 - Dec 3 by oh_tommy_tommy
Isis will retreat into Iraq
Then Assad will tell everyone to get out of his country
Which Russia might back unless they can have a huge % of the oil
Then what eh ??
Money & power Money & power
I read that Russia is backing as Assad as think if they don't US and UK will cause another failed state in Middle East.
In Syria's case this is a really a big issue for Putin - given large number of Muslims in Russian Federation in the North Caucuses - which is close to Syria.
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UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 12:34 - Dec 3 with 2965 views
UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 12:24 - Dec 3 by Lohengrin
Turkey will not be allowed to attack the Kurds.
No one is arming the Kurds, otherwise the Kurds would win and the conspiracy theory is nobody wants the Kurds to beat IS. The powers that be don't want a Kurdish state, Turkey don't want a Kurdish state and America backs the Turks, IS don't want a Kurdish state, Assad doesn't want a Kurdish state and he is backed by the Russians, the Kurds are a buffer between Turkey, Europe and Russia and the Islamic State but for the Kurds to breakout from their homeland areas would be a problem for the powers that be, the theory is that they are happy with the status quo. Hence English mp's voting for bombing but no boots on the ground or arming the Kurds with heavy weaponry.
Continually being banned by Planet Swans for Porthcawl and then being reinstated.
UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 12:22 - Dec 3 by Joe_bradshaw
I do as well and whilst I am against the bombings I don't think yesterday's decision makes much or any difference. We are and remain a huge target for ISIS whether we bomb them or, not.
UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 12:34 - Dec 3 by trampie
No one is arming the Kurds, otherwise the Kurds would win and the conspiracy theory is nobody wants the Kurds to beat IS. The powers that be don't want a Kurdish state, Turkey don't want a Kurdish state and America backs the Turks, IS don't want a Kurdish state, Assad doesn't want a Kurdish state and he is backed by the Russians, the Kurds are a buffer between Turkey, Europe and Russia and the Islamic State but for the Kurds to breakout from their homeland areas would be a problem for the powers that be, the theory is that they are happy with the status quo. Hence English mp's voting for bombing but no boots on the ground or arming the Kurds with heavy weaponry.
we had a Kurdish MSc student a couple of years ago. A vet and a lovely guy. Could not come to graduation as he went home to fight ISIS. Fortunately he is OK and they drove them out of his area and now looking to do a PhD. When you meet the people it becomes more real.
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UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 12:49 - Dec 3 with 2918 views
UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 12:34 - Dec 3 by trampie
No one is arming the Kurds, otherwise the Kurds would win and the conspiracy theory is nobody wants the Kurds to beat IS. The powers that be don't want a Kurdish state, Turkey don't want a Kurdish state and America backs the Turks, IS don't want a Kurdish state, Assad doesn't want a Kurdish state and he is backed by the Russians, the Kurds are a buffer between Turkey, Europe and Russia and the Islamic State but for the Kurds to breakout from their homeland areas would be a problem for the powers that be, the theory is that they are happy with the status quo. Hence English mp's voting for bombing but no boots on the ground or arming the Kurds with heavy weaponry.
The Kurds are indeed being armed and they're beating IS on the ground in every encounter.
An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it.
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UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 12:58 - Dec 3 with 2888 views
UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 12:50 - Dec 3 by Lohengrin
The Kurds are indeed being armed and they're beating IS on the ground in every encounter.
They are only receiving token gesture arms, they have spirit and are better fighters than IS, I watched the documentary last night [assume it was up to date], they are more than a match for IS and all their American arms but the Kurds have old light poor condition arms but are game.
Do the English, Americans, Turks, other Muslim groups, Assad and even Russia want the Kurds to win ?, they only have to arm them properly but they don't .......... hmm
[Post edited 3 Dec 2015 13:06]
Continually being banned by Planet Swans for Porthcawl and then being reinstated.
Anyone remember the ages old British concept of restraint in international endeavours?
Yes, I do....
You'd have a good old sit down cross party pow wow before committing the country to war...without the catcalls and bullying that have marred the current "debate"
But alas, now we are effectively ruled by the US and its global business interests, especially in regards to oil, gas and weaponry - we have developed a gung ho approach akin to the Yankee Western saga...
Darkie = bad. Paleface = good.
It won't end well this, and in yiur heart of hearts you ALL know it...
[Post edited 4 Dec 2015 20:31]
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UK Bombing of ISIS in Syria Go Ahead - Predictions for Next 2-6 Months on 20:24 - Dec 4 with 2640 views
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