| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:53 - Feb 7 with 1781 views | Gowerjack |
Welcome back Dimi. |  |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:53 - Feb 7 with 1780 views | Marottanomics |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:44 - Feb 7 by Davillin |
O.K., let's try this.
Statistics is the mathematical science of counting and comparing numbers.
When you have a series of near-identical events -- let's say for this example, the number of goals scored by one side in a Premier League game of football -- as soon as you have two games completed, you can add the total number of goals scored by that team, then divide that number by two [number of games played] and you have an average number scored [mean].
[There are three common definitions of average: mean, median, and mode. "Mean" is the result of the simple arithmetic act of adding, then dividing, as in the previous paragraph. I'll leave median and mode out of this, as they aren't what the poster used, above.]
I'll refer to the average in the paragraph correctly as the "mean."
Let's say two games, 1 and 2 goals = 3 goals divided by 2 games = 1.5 per game, which is the mean [average goals scored] of those two games. It's accurate arithmetically, but will become more and more accurate the more games/goals we include in the calculation.
Let's say, then, that we have data for 1,000 games, and after adding up the numbers of goals in all of those games, then divide by 1,000, we arrive at 1.75 goals per game, mean. That's far more accurate than the one we got from only 2 games.
"Regression to the mean" means simply that the more games we include in our calculation, the more accurate the mean becomes, and the "regression" part means that the number of goals to be expected from each subsequent game is more and more likely to get closer to the mean.
After including a long list of games/goals, the 1.75 will become more and more accurate so that it can get carried out to more than hundredths, such as 1.748562, which then becomes silly math and useless for our purposes.
The mathematical conclusion would be that if one were to place a bet on the number of goals scored by the subject team in the next game, getting close to the mean would be most likely to be a winner.
My reference to "bell curves" is that if one places the numbers of most normal random data into a graph, they then would form themselves into a bell shape in normal distributions. This bell curve could be short and wide, tall and narrow, etc., but both sides would be roughly or finely symmetrical. That's a bell curve.
If the sides are not basically symmetrical, but lean to one side or another, the curve is said to be skewed. The mean would remain the same for the same number of games/goals. It would not be found halfway between the least goals and most goals [which is the "median"].
However, in a game such as football, a natural bell curve would naturally "skew" toward zero goals. That is that the curve would not look like a normal curve with equal sides, but more like a drunk leaning up against a lamp post.
Most future games would have a number of goals closer to the then-existing mean, regardless of the nature of the curve.
What the original poster was saying, then, is that following normal random goal-scoring, one cannot statistically expect the goals scored in a game to be far from the mean so far, and over time the new mean after each game will be closer and closer to the previously-calculated mean.
Count on this: all gambling -- especially in casinos -- is based on the house betting that you will not hit on the mean for that game, by calculating the odds on that fact; and you, fool, will bet that you will. For example, what is the mean result of tossing two normal dice? Hint: 6+1, 5+2, 4+3, 3+4, 2+5, and 1+6.
Compare the means in poker between getting no winning hand and getting a royal flush? They're probably on the internet, but I don't need proof. The casino bets that you won't get a royal flush and are statistically more likely to get zero.
Now, the beauty of football is that a team can, indeed, affect the mean by going on an extended run of high goal-scoring. It's just that statistics tell us not to expect that. |
Far more eloquently put than I could manage. But yes, this. |  |
| Stephen Ganavas - Follow me on Twitter @Marottanomics |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 23:03 - Feb 7 with 1738 views | Davillin |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:45 - Feb 7 by Gowerjack |
More Bellends than Bell Curves in my opinion. |
Probable translation: "I don't understand statistics."
But that's not an insult. Far more people don't than who do.
Do you know any events in your life that are controlled by statistics -- "controlled"? Do you understand actuarial science? Do you have any idea of how many businesses/industries employ actuaries for a variety of purposes, all of which affect your life in some way? [Post edited 7 Feb 2016 23:04]
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 23:08 - Feb 7 with 1725 views | Marottanomics |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 23:03 - Feb 7 by Davillin |
Probable translation: "I don't understand statistics."
But that's not an insult. Far more people don't than who do.
Do you know any events in your life that are controlled by statistics -- "controlled"? Do you understand actuarial science? Do you have any idea of how many businesses/industries employ actuaries for a variety of purposes, all of which affect your life in some way? [Post edited 7 Feb 2016 23:04]
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This is why I was getting frustrated before. Yes stats are not everything, but they are certainly an effective indicator. | |
| Stephen Ganavas - Follow me on Twitter @Marottanomics |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 23:13 - Feb 7 with 1719 views | Dewi1jack |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:53 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
Far more eloquently put than I could manage. But yes, this. |
Don't understand how you're agreeing with Dav, our resident hero as far as graphs, charts and data collation and processing goes.
You don't even understand the stat that if we score more goals than the opposition, we get three points and are a step nearer to safety and rebuilding in the summer.
No matter if the opposition has 90 chances a game.
How about this for rocket science.
Everton have 20 chances on target, we let one in.
Swansea have 2 chances on target, both go in.
No matter what underlying problems there are, Swansea win 2-1 and get the 3 points.
I also hated using programmes such as SPSS when in Uni as well as everyone on here having a dislike of stats!
Stats and data can be manipulated to show whatever hypothesis a person wants them to show.
Black and white facts (such as Everton losing,) can't |  |
| If you wake up breathing, thats a good start to your day and you'll make many thousands of people envious. |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 00:02 - Feb 8 with 1656 views | JackFish |
See, a lot of those stats are completely pointless because they're based on the premise that Everton created more chances than us because they were better and we were lucky to win. It doesn't take into account the fact that we were winning and didn't need to go forward too much to get another goal. Had it been 1-1, we may well have continued playing further up the pitch as we did in the first half and kept being the better team.
The only thing that matters is that results and performances have both improved since Monk left. |  | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 00:45 - Feb 8 with 1621 views | LaMariposa |
Stephen Ganavas. It is clear from your little and uninformed article that you haven't watched many Swans games since we've been in the prem. To be honest I think you must be writing about some other team. I have never read such a load of CRAP in all my life. Your comments as to JJS sum you up. Totally clueless and uninformed. |  |
| Be wary please my gentle friends for all the skins you breathe, they have a tasty habit to eat the hand that bleeds.... |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 01:15 - Feb 8 with 1598 views | Davillin |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 00:02 - Feb 8 by JackFish |
See, a lot of those stats are completely pointless because they're based on the premise that Everton created more chances than us because they were better and we were lucky to win. It doesn't take into account the fact that we were winning and didn't need to go forward too much to get another goal. Had it been 1-1, we may well have continued playing further up the pitch as we did in the first half and kept being the better team.
The only thing that matters is that results and performances have both improved since Monk left. |
The only accurate statement is in your last sentence.
The rest is bias. [Post edited 8 Feb 2016 14:11]
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 06:27 - Feb 8 with 1547 views | Gowerjack |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 23:03 - Feb 7 by Davillin |
Probable translation: "I don't understand statistics."
But that's not an insult. Far more people don't than who do.
Do you know any events in your life that are controlled by statistics -- "controlled"? Do you understand actuarial science? Do you have any idea of how many businesses/industries employ actuaries for a variety of purposes, all of which affect your life in some way? [Post edited 7 Feb 2016 23:04]
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Dav
'Twas a joke.
And yes I have studied and use statistics. | |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 07:36 - Feb 8 with 1515 views | shandyjack |
I stopped reading when he said Cork had had a bad season |  |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 09:40 - Feb 8 with 1438 views | jasper_T |
Stats are a great way for people to have an opinion about football without having to go to the trouble of watching games. Saves a lot of time.
I wish I could write an article using whoscored and a few clips of Graeme Souness talking sh!t, but I wouldn't want to be seen as copying this Ganavas bloke. | | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 10:01 - Feb 8 with 1406 views | VetchitBack |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:07 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
Not sure about often beating Palace. Looked a very tight game on the screen, and on this. |
Pardew said that if he was a Swans fan he wouldn't have been happy with a point.
I won't dismiss stats nor the experience of watching a game nor the normally biased opinions of the opposition manager as described above. |  |
| The orthodox are always orthodox, regardless of the orthodoxy.
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 10:38 - Feb 8 with 1379 views | DafyddHuw |
Can't be arsed to read through 6 pages of this.
But people are saying that we don't have the players that Guidolin wants, and if we stay up and he stays, we should get in players that suit his style better.
I thought that this was totally against the Swansea ethos. Aren't we supposed to play to a "style" (which has gone out the window this season), and get the appropriate players in to fit that style. So when we do have a change of manager, they manage the team to our style, so that we don't ship in/ship out a raft of players with each managerial change?
Wasn't that what got us and kept us in the Prem up to now? |  | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 10:42 - Feb 8 with 1377 views | Jackanapes |
Given that the manager was brought in to get the best out of our squad, even the title of this awful thread is farked. |  |
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“The stupidest thing she knew was for people to act like they knew all about the things they knew absolutely nothing about.†|
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 10:48 - Feb 8 with 1369 views | jasper_T |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 10:38 - Feb 8 by DafyddHuw |
Can't be arsed to read through 6 pages of this.
But people are saying that we don't have the players that Guidolin wants, and if we stay up and he stays, we should get in players that suit his style better.
I thought that this was totally against the Swansea ethos. Aren't we supposed to play to a "style" (which has gone out the window this season), and get the appropriate players in to fit that style. So when we do have a change of manager, they manage the team to our style, so that we don't ship in/ship out a raft of players with each managerial change?
Wasn't that what got us and kept us in the Prem up to now? |
We finished 8th last season playing increasingly un-Swansea-like football, built around players that didn't fit the classic Swansea style.
There hasn't been a single Swansea ethos over recent history, but rather constant development and adjustment and compromise as each manager has put their stamp on the club. | | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 10:55 - Feb 8 with 1363 views | karnataka |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 20:52 - Feb 7 by Jackfath |
This isn't going to end well. |
Unfortunately, I don't think it's going to end soon either. |  | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 11:57 - Feb 8 with 1298 views | Uxbridge |
"Defending leads, Swansea have looked well and truly out of their depth. This has not just been a problem for the Italian though, but a problem that the Swans have consistently battled with for their entire existence in England’s top flight."
It really isn't.
Rodgers' approach was to keep the ball. Laudrup's was more to hit on the break. Monk pretty much perfected the art of grabbing a goal and holding on for much of last season. Holding a lead has not been a consistent problem for us.
Sadly, this article does rather smack of looking at a couple of results and attempting to see a trend from that.
Plus you have to wonder about the fundamental principle of an argument that the squad is unsuited for what is likely to be a short term managerial appointment, plus that a trend of 8 points in 4 games is indicative of a worrying trend. |  |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 12:12 - Feb 8 with 1279 views | Uxbridge |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:54 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
But this is pretty much what I'm saying though.
1. Guidolin is doing better than Curtis.
2. Playing like we did at Everton will not get us three points very often.
3. We concede too many big chances, often from set-pieces - far more than we actually take ourselves.
4. The players Guidolin would want are a lot different to the ones he has.
5. Guidolin is doing OK with what he has got, and he will get us to safety.
6. That still doesn't mean we don't have to change and evolve. |
You haven't been saying all that though.
More often than not, as history has shown, we won't beat Everton. Two weeks ago we did. Denigrating that performance rather misses the point that it was a vastly improved performance.
We're missing big chances at goal? No shiit Sherlock. However that contradicts your argument re. Everton where you say we overperformed given the chances. It'd be far more worrying if we weren't creating chances, or seeing an upturn in the chances created. Which we are.
I'm sure Guidolin wants different players here. Everyone does.
Guidolin's doing fine. So was Curt as it goes. Both were a massive improvement on what went on before. This, as you may have noticed, is a key point for a lot of people.
As for not needing to change and evolve, have you actually seen anyone say that we don't? Seriously? One of the main criticisms of Monk was the evolution that seemed to be more regression than anything. Our recent history is one of constant evolution.
Anyway, always fun when a new fan tells us what our club is and what we should think. And as someone who probably puts a lot more stock in stats than many on here, it saddens me when someone puts blind faith in the numbers without context or ability to look at other key indicators. Regardless of what specific stats are saying, we're clearly heading in the right direction. | |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 12:39 - Feb 8 with 1247 views | Clinton |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 21:43 - Feb 7 by Marottanomics |
If you actually read properly, you'll see that I said he would suit that role better than Ki or Cork, not that he was ideally suited to it. Jonjo gets a bad rap from you lot, no wonder he left South Wales with his tail between his legs. |
This assertion the JJS would suit that role better than Cork is just plain wrong. in fact nothing could be further from the case, its not even debatable.
Another point 'hard tackling'. Is not really allowed in the Premier league. Look at the bookings that Cattermole or Tiote have accrued.
[Post edited 8 Feb 2016 12:49]
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| If you can fill the unforgiving minute.
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son! |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 12:47 - Feb 8 with 1228 views | Private_Partz |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 10:38 - Feb 8 by DafyddHuw |
Can't be arsed to read through 6 pages of this.
But people are saying that we don't have the players that Guidolin wants, and if we stay up and he stays, we should get in players that suit his style better.
I thought that this was totally against the Swansea ethos. Aren't we supposed to play to a "style" (which has gone out the window this season), and get the appropriate players in to fit that style. So when we do have a change of manager, they manage the team to our style, so that we don't ship in/ship out a raft of players with each managerial change?
Wasn't that what got us and kept us in the Prem up to now? |
I think that has what has happened in the past and I suspect this I what we are aiming for in the future. We lost our way under Garry and our passing style was being eroded to such a degree we could not hold on for results as we did last season. The form of the team dropped, we stopped scoring, and as a result and we were in the deep doo doo.
Curt started the revival by encouraging the passing game and lifting the spirits of the players. FG has carried it on. It is not perfect and Frankie knows this and wants to change our formation and increase our pressing game. He realises that this is not the time to develope a new style so he is working with what the players are used to. He has however introduced a higher pressing game and our passing is also improving. We still struggle a bit during the last third of a game but I am sure he is working on this also.
With regards to chances then I do not see the oppo creating masses of them. We are on the other hand, whilst not overrunning teams, have had plenty of opportunities. We have hit the post more than any other team and had lots of bum reffereeing decisions that could easily have cost us 7 points. There is a thin line between success and failure but it is early days yet, no need to panic. I think we going about things the right way now after being in dispair at the point where Huw said no one wants to manage us. [Post edited 8 Feb 2016 12:52]
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| You have mission in life to hold out your hand,
To help the other guy out,
Help your fellow man.
Stan Ridgway
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 13:05 - Feb 8 with 1193 views | costalotta |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 12:47 - Feb 8 by Private_Partz |
I think that has what has happened in the past and I suspect this I what we are aiming for in the future. We lost our way under Garry and our passing style was being eroded to such a degree we could not hold on for results as we did last season. The form of the team dropped, we stopped scoring, and as a result and we were in the deep doo doo.
Curt started the revival by encouraging the passing game and lifting the spirits of the players. FG has carried it on. It is not perfect and Frankie knows this and wants to change our formation and increase our pressing game. He realises that this is not the time to develope a new style so he is working with what the players are used to. He has however introduced a higher pressing game and our passing is also improving. We still struggle a bit during the last third of a game but I am sure he is working on this also.
With regards to chances then I do not see the oppo creating masses of them. We are on the other hand, whilst not overrunning teams, have had plenty of opportunities. We have hit the post more than any other team and had lots of bum reffereeing decisions that could easily have cost us 7 points. There is a thin line between success and failure but it is early days yet, no need to panic. I think we going about things the right way now after being in dispair at the point where Huw said no one wants to manage us. [Post edited 8 Feb 2016 12:52]
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This! |  | | |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 13:07 - Feb 8 with 1189 views | Clinton |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 12:47 - Feb 8 by Private_Partz |
I think that has what has happened in the past and I suspect this I what we are aiming for in the future. We lost our way under Garry and our passing style was being eroded to such a degree we could not hold on for results as we did last season. The form of the team dropped, we stopped scoring, and as a result and we were in the deep doo doo.
Curt started the revival by encouraging the passing game and lifting the spirits of the players. FG has carried it on. It is not perfect and Frankie knows this and wants to change our formation and increase our pressing game. He realises that this is not the time to develope a new style so he is working with what the players are used to. He has however introduced a higher pressing game and our passing is also improving. We still struggle a bit during the last third of a game but I am sure he is working on this also.
With regards to chances then I do not see the oppo creating masses of them. We are on the other hand, whilst not overrunning teams, have had plenty of opportunities. We have hit the post more than any other team and had lots of bum reffereeing decisions that could easily have cost us 7 points. There is a thin line between success and failure but it is early days yet, no need to panic. I think we going about things the right way now after being in dispair at the point where Huw said no one wants to manage us. [Post edited 8 Feb 2016 12:52]
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Well said. At this tricky time, Frankie has to transform the team to his style through evolution rather than revolution; making the best of the fine playing staff we have at the club.
Over the next 3 weeks he has plenty of time to work with the players, punctuated only by the important game against Southampton. I think we will see the true Guidolin style before long, at which point many of these points will, no doubt, be debated again. | |
| If you can fill the unforgiving minute.
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son! |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 13:33 - Feb 8 with 1156 views | Davillin |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 06:27 - Feb 8 by Gowerjack |
Dav
'Twas a joke.
And yes I have studied and use statistics. |
I am genuinely glad to hear that. Thanks. | |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 13:34 - Feb 8 with 1149 views | EasternJack |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 22:45 - Feb 7 by Gowerjack |
More Bellends than Bell Curves in my opinion. |
Or more foreskin than foresight, to paraphrase Dai Davies... |  |
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| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 13:39 - Feb 8 with 1139 views | EasternJack |
| Guidolin: Right Man, Wrong Tools on 07:36 - Feb 8 by shandyjack |
I stopped reading when he said Cork had had a bad season |
Depends which one you mean. Cork mk I was a hoofball disaster that was only partly salvaged by the song we had for him... | |
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