| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? 12:32 - Feb 11 with 3044 views | monmouth |
Just a thought following on from comments in the Gartside thread, which I found interesting.
Given the talks on restructuring champions league to exclude all but the 20 or so richest from the major european football powers (and give them automatic entry), plus the money being chucked around in the far east to entice players, lus the dominance of german and spanish football, is the Premier League circus in serious danger?
If the european league were to happen then the TV money and the worldwide (TV viewer) interest would surely follow. I doubt rich 'investors' would be much interested in what's left.
If not, then how many more Sky/BT subscriptions can be sold when streaming is not going away, even if it were limited in the relatively small uk market in some way (which I can't see how really, with VPNs and technology advances ever increasing).
The end of this TV deal could be the end of the golden goose I reckon, if it doesn't implode before. I did, however say exactly the same last time, when I thought the TV deal couldn't get any stupider....then it exploded.
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 12:44 - Feb 11 with 2030 views | Clinton |
So if we are lucky enough to be in the Premier League next year, we should be careful to have a clause in any player contracts extending beyond 2019 that the wages drop if the TV money implodes after 2019? (Based on the 2016-2019 TV deal being done and dusted)
Obviously there's a good chance we would have activated any relegation clauses before then, but worth a thought when dotting the i's and crossing the t's. |  |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 12:55 - Feb 11 with 2004 views | DafyddHuw |
The Prem is built on sand.
Players and agents will ask for nore and more money, clubs will bleed fans for more and more money, Sky/BT/etc will pump more and more money into the game. It's not sustainable.
Eventually some broadcasting company will say "I'm not doing this anymore. I'm gonna put the money into my new toy".
Then all the players will bugger off to whichever country pays the most. Leaving our divisions looking like Serie D downwards.
The Bundesliga, on the other hand....cheap as chips to attend matches, clubs having a real affinity with their communities, stadiums fullto overflowing, flags everywhere, fantastic match day atmosphere, standing areas,....a proper footballing structure in other words. |  | | |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:00 - Feb 11 with 1977 views | Highjack |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 12:55 - Feb 11 by DafyddHuw |
The Prem is built on sand.
Players and agents will ask for nore and more money, clubs will bleed fans for more and more money, Sky/BT/etc will pump more and more money into the game. It's not sustainable.
Eventually some broadcasting company will say "I'm not doing this anymore. I'm gonna put the money into my new toy".
Then all the players will bugger off to whichever country pays the most. Leaving our divisions looking like Serie D downwards.
The Bundesliga, on the other hand....cheap as chips to attend matches, clubs having a real affinity with their communities, stadiums fullto overflowing, flags everywhere, fantastic match day atmosphere, standing areas,....a proper footballing structure in other words. |
Bundesliga being cheap is a myth, they all walked out last weekend in protest of pricing. |  |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:02 - Feb 11 with 1969 views | Devz00 |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:00 - Feb 11 by Highjack |
Bundesliga being cheap is a myth, they all walked out last weekend in protest of pricing. |
I was about to mention the same thing.
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/35464102
On the whole though, the Bundesliga seems a far better structure from a fans point of view. |  |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:08 - Feb 11 with 1946 views | DafyddHuw |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:00 - Feb 11 by Highjack |
Bundesliga being cheap is a myth, they all walked out last weekend in protest of pricing. |
You can watch a Bundesliga match for €7.
When they protest at the pricing, they're not protesting at having to pay £77 fora match, more like £20 | | | |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:16 - Feb 11 with 1918 views | Nookiejack |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 12:44 - Feb 11 by Clinton |
So if we are lucky enough to be in the Premier League next year, we should be careful to have a clause in any player contracts extending beyond 2019 that the wages drop if the TV money implodes after 2019? (Based on the 2016-2019 TV deal being done and dusted)
Obviously there's a good chance we would have activated any relegation clauses before then, but worth a thought when dotting the i's and crossing the t's. |
Yes thats an interesting thought about changing players contracts so that wages have to drop after 2019 - if TV deal is then not renewed at current levels.
An alternative would be that most clubs to get out of the hole - try to get relegated - so that relegation clauses kick in. |  | | |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:19 - Feb 11 with 1908 views | Highjack |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:08 - Feb 11 by DafyddHuw |
You can watch a Bundesliga match for €7.
When they protest at the pricing, they're not protesting at having to pay £77 fora match, more like £20 |
Well those Dortmund fans in that article are protesting over having to pay £55. | |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:37 - Feb 11 with 1877 views | jack247 |
The PL is by far the most marketable league on the world. The only danger to that is a European Super League. Bundesliga will never catch up. However good the teams are, however well their supporters are treated, it's much harder to get the average fan in Asia or America excited about Bayern v Dortmund than any combination of our top teams. The only European, probably worldwide exception to that is the Superclassico, but you can't sell a league based on two blockbuster games per season.
The only way I can see it falling apart is if it destroys itself through greed. Agree with the comments on this thread that at some point they may price broadcasters out of the market. I think that is a hell of a long way off though. Football is part of our culture, it is still in the process of becoming massive in key emerging markets like North America and the Far East. I can't see broadcasters over there doing anything but paying more in the short term.
I do think a potential super league could kill it overnight though. If you take the Manchester clubs, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea out of it for example, revenue would stop dead in its tracks. Same thing with all the top leagues. If that were to happen, the best players in the world will play for the top clubs. The next tier down, instead of being dotted around the PL, La Liga etc may well end up going to China or the MLS. At the moment, MLS is a final pay day for global stars at the end of their career and somewhere for players not good enough to play here. Middle and Far Eastern football is still very new and the clubs could easily end up like Shaktar, but both could easily become major players if Europes top leagues all lost their crown jewels. | | | |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:46 - Feb 11 with 1857 views | ymaohyd |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:37 - Feb 11 by jack247 |
The PL is by far the most marketable league on the world. The only danger to that is a European Super League. Bundesliga will never catch up. However good the teams are, however well their supporters are treated, it's much harder to get the average fan in Asia or America excited about Bayern v Dortmund than any combination of our top teams. The only European, probably worldwide exception to that is the Superclassico, but you can't sell a league based on two blockbuster games per season.
The only way I can see it falling apart is if it destroys itself through greed. Agree with the comments on this thread that at some point they may price broadcasters out of the market. I think that is a hell of a long way off though. Football is part of our culture, it is still in the process of becoming massive in key emerging markets like North America and the Far East. I can't see broadcasters over there doing anything but paying more in the short term.
I do think a potential super league could kill it overnight though. If you take the Manchester clubs, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea out of it for example, revenue would stop dead in its tracks. Same thing with all the top leagues. If that were to happen, the best players in the world will play for the top clubs. The next tier down, instead of being dotted around the PL, La Liga etc may well end up going to China or the MLS. At the moment, MLS is a final pay day for global stars at the end of their career and somewhere for players not good enough to play here. Middle and Far Eastern football is still very new and the clubs could easily end up like Shaktar, but both could easily become major players if Europes top leagues all lost their crown jewels. |
Football is a mad, mad world.
Off work today and chilling out. Overheard an interview on Sky news with a reporter 'Live' from Manchester. He sounded like a mouth piece for Man U and was commenting on the speculation about Mourinho taking over and actually came out with the comment, as a positive, possibly quoting the powers that be in the club that 'We are happy with VDG, he has taken the club to 5th in the league'!!!!! |  |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:46 - Feb 11 with 1858 views | monmouth |
To J247. I can see the greed of the top 5 or so leading to them using a breakaway as a pressure tool to cream off a much bigger share of the TV spoils (as per Barca and Real in Spain?), even if they stop short of actually departing. For us, dependent entirely on TV money, either could be a potential killer depending on how it is handled.
I'm not sure about PL constitution but If the big clubs play real hardball could that affect the distribution of the imminent TV deal? Might be why the sabres are rattling now. | |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:58 - Feb 11 with 1828 views | Lord_Bony |
The new league sponsors from 2020 will be Amazon Firestick and Kodi..most people will have cottoned on by then  |  |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:58 - Feb 11 with 1827 views | jack247 |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:46 - Feb 11 by monmouth |
To J247. I can see the greed of the top 5 or so leading to them using a breakaway as a pressure tool to cream off a much bigger share of the TV spoils (as per Barca and Real in Spain?), even if they stop short of actually departing. For us, dependent entirely on TV money, either could be a potential killer depending on how it is handled.
I'm not sure about PL constitution but If the big clubs play real hardball could that affect the distribution of the imminent TV deal? Might be why the sabres are rattling now. |
They may well do that and feel they are entitled to it, because let's face it, 90 odd % of tv fans tune in to watch the big clubs. I think that would be a short term viewpoint from them, because the bigger the disparity and the less competitive the league is, long term is going to lead to people switching off. I don't think it's in anyone's long term interests for the PL to become like La Liga. I realise this contradicts what I've said earlier a bit, but a strong PL needs clubs like us giving the big boys a bloody nose every now and then. It would lose a lot of its appeal if they were nigh on guaranteed to win 70% of their games.
Having said that, how many of the owners really care about long term stability. The Mansours possibly, because they use City as a massive marketing tool for the Middle East and probably want that to continue long term. The rest would probably be happy to double their revenue for the next 10-20 years or whatever and not care if the bubble bursts after they have sold up. | | | |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 14:38 - Feb 11 with 1758 views | EasternJack |
Too many political barriers in place to make the Euro League a real prospect. A perfect storm could align, but it would need a major shift from how TV money distribution is currently handled in the main leagues outside of the prem. It will also need the Prem to significantly decline (financially) for this to happen. On top of that, there would need to be some major negotiation on a huge financial deal (think x10+ the current prem deal) for any Euro league to work from day 1 to make it attractive for all the likely candidates to walk away from their domestic leagues as well as the UEFA money pots.
The project that China is trying to get up and running is a more realistic threat that could also trigger the above... [Post edited 11 Feb 2016 14:41]
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 14:51 - Feb 11 with 1735 views | jack247 |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 14:38 - Feb 11 by EasternJack |
Too many political barriers in place to make the Euro League a real prospect. A perfect storm could align, but it would need a major shift from how TV money distribution is currently handled in the main leagues outside of the prem. It will also need the Prem to significantly decline (financially) for this to happen. On top of that, there would need to be some major negotiation on a huge financial deal (think x10+ the current prem deal) for any Euro league to work from day 1 to make it attractive for all the likely candidates to walk away from their domestic leagues as well as the UEFA money pots.
The project that China is trying to get up and running is a more realistic threat that could also trigger the above... [Post edited 11 Feb 2016 14:41]
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Don't know much about what China are doing, apart from throwing megabucks at semi-marquee names, but just can't see it being a viable threat unless the PL self destructs. To compete long term, you need to be able to sell the broadcasting rights globally for massive money.
Some of the PL clubs are huge global brands. You need that, as well as the atmosphere created by genuine fans (as opposed to the football tourist type fans who smile politely and clap when the opposition score) to create an atmosphere. You would also need reasonably balanced teams, rather than the 9 journeymen and 2 stars type approach some leagues adopt.
It would take decades to create global interest just by signing big name players. | | | |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 14:58 - Feb 11 with 1713 views | tomdickharry |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 14:38 - Feb 11 by EasternJack |
Too many political barriers in place to make the Euro League a real prospect. A perfect storm could align, but it would need a major shift from how TV money distribution is currently handled in the main leagues outside of the prem. It will also need the Prem to significantly decline (financially) for this to happen. On top of that, there would need to be some major negotiation on a huge financial deal (think x10+ the current prem deal) for any Euro league to work from day 1 to make it attractive for all the likely candidates to walk away from their domestic leagues as well as the UEFA money pots.
The project that China is trying to get up and running is a more realistic threat that could also trigger the above... [Post edited 11 Feb 2016 14:41]
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Good post spot on. | | | |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 15:23 - Feb 11 with 1679 views | EasternJack |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 14:51 - Feb 11 by jack247 |
Don't know much about what China are doing, apart from throwing megabucks at semi-marquee names, but just can't see it being a viable threat unless the PL self destructs. To compete long term, you need to be able to sell the broadcasting rights globally for massive money.
Some of the PL clubs are huge global brands. You need that, as well as the atmosphere created by genuine fans (as opposed to the football tourist type fans who smile politely and clap when the opposition score) to create an atmosphere. You would also need reasonably balanced teams, rather than the 9 journeymen and 2 stars type approach some leagues adopt.
It would take decades to create global interest just by signing big name players. |
I think they're playing the long game. Much like the MLS (whose development from nothing since '93 has been impressive) - I see the China model as being similar to the US NASL project from the 70s. The question is whether they have the appetite to financially sustain the huge expense until it becomes self-sufficient (or bust... like the NASL did)
Either way, I think China are on the way to at the very least mirroring the regional success of the K & J Leagues which turned both of those countries into decent footballing nations from total obscurity in less than a decade.
On the atmosphere front - have a look at some of the crowds from those leagues... [Post edited 11 Feb 2016 15:28]
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 16:14 - Feb 11 with 1606 views | Bloodyhills |
I agree, if the European Super League thing get's going then Prem will lose a lot of money as Murdoch tries to buy up TV rights for the new league. Makes it all the more important to be financially sensible as clubs putting their future in hock could well blow it if the expected TV money ceases. | |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 18:07 - Feb 11 with 1492 views | jack247 |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 15:23 - Feb 11 by EasternJack |
I think they're playing the long game. Much like the MLS (whose development from nothing since '93 has been impressive) - I see the China model as being similar to the US NASL project from the 70s. The question is whether they have the appetite to financially sustain the huge expense until it becomes self-sufficient (or bust... like the NASL did)
Either way, I think China are on the way to at the very least mirroring the regional success of the K & J Leagues which turned both of those countries into decent footballing nations from total obscurity in less than a decade.
On the atmosphere front - have a look at some of the crowds from those leagues... [Post edited 11 Feb 2016 15:28]
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I'm assuming you mean crowd sizes rather than atmospheres? Broadcasters want raucous atmospheres which is why Sky always showed both Cardiff games in PL or Championship and do the same with Newcastle v Sunderland, Saints v Pompey etc. I doubt they would have the same appetite to show those games if they were played in front of 100,000 fans in China.
They may well mirror or surpass the success of the K-league etc. and bringing in big names is probably the best way to spark interest. I just don't see it, or any of the non European leagues ever competing with ours, provided the big clubs don't form a breakaway league. | | | |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 18:19 - Feb 11 with 1475 views | Highjack |
China haven't really signed anyone of real note, paying well over the odds for Ramires isn't going to set the league on fire.
If only someone could make an anime YouTube video of Bafetimbi Gomis greatest goals and post it to Beijing. | |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 19:36 - Feb 11 with 1410 views | JackFish |
I've long thought that the Champions League could move to an NFL-style format where the teams play ~14 matches over a season (there's already enough matchdays for this to work) with a playoff competition over a few weeks at the end of the season. That would give clubs guaranteed matches against some of the biggest clubs in Europe each season without affecting the domestic leagues too much, and could easily be expanded to 48 teams to include a few more from the top countries to keep everyone happy.
Guess the logical next step from that would be having matches on weekends and then it turning into a breakaway league though. |  | | |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 20:11 - Feb 11 with 1370 views | jojaca |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 19:36 - Feb 11 by JackFish |
I've long thought that the Champions League could move to an NFL-style format where the teams play ~14 matches over a season (there's already enough matchdays for this to work) with a playoff competition over a few weeks at the end of the season. That would give clubs guaranteed matches against some of the biggest clubs in Europe each season without affecting the domestic leagues too much, and could easily be expanded to 48 teams to include a few more from the top countries to keep everyone happy.
Guess the logical next step from that would be having matches on weekends and then it turning into a breakaway league though. |
I have not watched any champions league football this season and a european league does not interest me. When there is nothing on the box, I still can't be asked to turnover to watch half decent looking La Liga match. But I might watch a Championship game though. |  |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 21:43 - Feb 11 with 1277 views | morningstar |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 13:08 - Feb 11 by DafyddHuw |
You can watch a Bundesliga match for €7.
When they protest at the pricing, they're not protesting at having to pay £77 fora match, more like £20 |
You're really not very good at this at all are you! |  |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 22:02 - Feb 11 with 1243 views | Loyal |
I would just love it.
If the whole fcking premier league fell to the floor and was bankrupt. |  |
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| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 22:15 - Feb 11 with 1225 views | tomdickharry |
European League is a non starter,reason The FA will not approve an affiliated club/s from becoming a member/s.Anyway who would want to watch Juventus v Athletico Madrid as the Monday night game and Super Sunday, Celtic v Porto and Dortmund v Spartak Moscow. | | | |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 22:18 - Feb 11 with 1222 views | monmouth |
| Is the Premier League a Dead Man Walking? on 22:02 - Feb 11 by Loyal |
I would just love it.
If the whole fcking premier league fell to the floor and was bankrupt. |
Wouldn't we get buried underneath it though? | |
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