| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? 10:42 - Jun 28 with 8209 views | Kerouac |
This is what I think...
The referendum was "non-binding",
we have yet to invoke 'article 50' and can do so at our leisure.
The EU wants us to exit ASAP and desires a swift conclusion.
Why?
Because it is creating financial turmoil for them too....because they are prevented from moving forward with deeper union until this has been resolved....and because it is creating tensions within individual states, there is a serious risk of EU break-up.
Despite wishing for a swift conclusion they have stated that there will be "no informal negotiations" and that "negotiations will only begin once 'Article 50' is invoked".
Frankly, the decision for when we invoke 'Article 50' is out of their hands....and the more they stamp their feet and be unreasonable the more the political tensions in their own countries and between EU states increase.
I can see us dragging this out and creating as much mischief as possible within the EU.
Nothing has changed at the moment....all the anxiety concerns what speculators are doing in financial markets.
The longer this drags on, the longer the financial uncertainty, the more the political tensions in the EU increase.
They will HAVE to start informal negotiations with us.
There is NOTHING they can do about the timescale.
We will hold out for a good deal and we will get it or the EU will burn down.
Why?
Mass youth unemployment, piss weak economies, mass immigration, TTIP and terrorism.
The Greeks are now anti-EU, the party making all the gains in Italy are Eurosceptic, an anti-EU party in Germany is increasing in the polls, France have Marine Le Pen on the far right demanding a referendum and many on the far left unhappy with the EU, the Eastern European states have openly disobeyed the EU, Poland is already stating that it is the EU who should be bending to keep the UK, There are tensions in Holland and Scandinavia too....the EU does not win at the ballot box in any European state.
The other European citizens will be demanding their say at the ballot box.
We have the cards, we now just need someone with a cool head to play them. |  |
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| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 12:58 - Jun 28 with 1104 views | Watchman |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 11:47 - Jun 28 by Lord_Bony |
Cameron wont see it through though.
He s very cleverly said he will leave triggering article 50 to his successor.
Basically,it means a poison chalice will be handed to the next PM. It will take a brave man or woman to invoke it!
There will be chaos afterwards on the markets(albeit temporary) and the blame will immediately be put on them for causing it.... a tough one. |
and of course whoever does/does not invoke 50 will instantly upset half the country and that would be electoral suicide and not a single party will want that
This is the greatest democratic spanner in the works ever |  |
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| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:02 - Jun 28 with 1096 views | skippyjack |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 12:15 - Jun 28 by BytholWyn |
I find the degree of self-deluded grandiose, little Britain thinking on this forum and amongst Brexiters astonishing (well actually I don't it's par for the course after all).
Do you not get it that there is a huge asymmetry of power between us and the EU as a whole and even more so between us and the rest of the World? Farage's pompous comments, inferring that Europe would have more to lose from the imposition of tit-for-tat tariffs sums up the delusions of the hard right. He's correct of course that tariffs wouldn't be good for German car manufacturers, but it would be far worse for us in the UK. Why? Because our population of the UK is 65 million and the population of the EU is about 450 million without the Uk. If they lose a proportion of their trade with us as a result of a trade war it will hurt them - but nothing like as much as it will hurt us to lose a proportion of our trade with 450 million people. As we enter into negotiations with the EU we are both faced with the prospect of a lose-lose situation developing - but we have far more to lose than the rest of the EU. That is the simple reality which will play out in negotiations, and which is why you poor Brexiters are going to be so so disappointed with the eventual outcome - which will be nothing like what was promised.
What applies to our relationship to the EU applies even more so to the rest of the World. This is perfectly illustrated with the debate around the future of the steel industry. China has imposed swingeing tariffs on UK steel, and is dumping its own steel on us, causing most of the problems the Uk steel industry is facing. It's pretty obvious that we should impose our own tit for tat tariffs, isn't it? But we have't. Why not? Because we stand to lose the opportunity of gain some sort of entry to their financial services market. A perfect illustration of the kind of future that awaits little Britain. On a global scale we are tiny, with the population of Texas and Caifornia combined. The idea we can exert any significant influence or negotiate favourable trade terms with our competitors is simply deluded.
The Empire is no more, get over it. We can be part of a club that exerts influence on the World, or we can face the world with plucky bravado but no power. Its time to get real. |
Are you deluded?..
Antigua and Barbuda
Australia
Bahamas
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belize
Botswana
Brunei
Cameroon
Canada
Cyprus
Dominica
Ghana
Grenada
Guyana
India
Jamaica
Kenya
Kiribati
Lesotho
Malawi
Malaysia
Maldives
Malta
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Nauru
New Zealand
Nigeria
Pakistan
Papa New Guinea
Rwanda
Saint and Kitts Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and The Grenadines
Samoa
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Solomon Islands
South Africa
Sri Lanka
Swaziland
Tanzania
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Tuvalu
Uganda
United Kingdom
Vanuatu
Zambia
Do Europe seriously want to stop trading?.. Over 2 billion people.. With an economy better than China? |  |
| The awkward moment when a Welsh Club become the Champions of England.. shh
The Swansea Way.. To upset the odds. | | Poll: | Best Swans Player |
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| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:05 - Jun 28 with 1091 views | Lord_Bony |
Lads n lasses.
It's good to have debate... the country is split right down the middle over it.
Half say the future of the UK is better out.
Half say the future is better in.
The simple answer is none of us know the outcome.
Myself, I prefer to take the example of Iceland. Since leaving the EU and jailing their incompetent bankers a few years back they have flourished as an island and are trading happily with the world....things have never been better for them...
There is no reason why we can't do the same...only better.
All this gloom and doom,I don't buy it. Long term things will pan out just fine,we are a strong country with a good future for us all. |  |
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| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:06 - Jun 28 with 1088 views | londonlisa2001 |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 12:58 - Jun 28 by Watchman |
and of course whoever does/does not invoke 50 will instantly upset half the country and that would be electoral suicide and not a single party will want that
This is the greatest democratic spanner in the works ever |
It's increasingly apparent that the article 50 delay may be partly political games from Cameron against Boris, partly a chance to try to get some sort of stability in the markets, but also partly because there is absolutely no plan whatsoever for this and no one has the faintest idea what to do and with the exception possibly of Farage, who has no mandate to do anything, nobody on the leave side actually thinks anything other than it's a disaster. |  | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:12 - Jun 28 with 1077 views | yescomeon |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:02 - Jun 28 by skippyjack |
Are you deluded?..
Antigua and Barbuda
Australia
Bahamas
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belize
Botswana
Brunei
Cameroon
Canada
Cyprus
Dominica
Ghana
Grenada
Guyana
India
Jamaica
Kenya
Kiribati
Lesotho
Malawi
Malaysia
Maldives
Malta
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Nauru
New Zealand
Nigeria
Pakistan
Papa New Guinea
Rwanda
Saint and Kitts Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and The Grenadines
Samoa
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Solomon Islands
South Africa
Sri Lanka
Swaziland
Tanzania
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Tuvalu
Uganda
United Kingdom
Vanuatu
Zambia
Do Europe seriously want to stop trading?.. Over 2 billion people.. With an economy better than China? |
Someone appears to have stolen you're compelling argument and replaced it with a random list of countries. |  |
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| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:14 - Jun 28 with 1074 views | londonlisa2001 |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:05 - Jun 28 by Lord_Bony |
Lads n lasses.
It's good to have debate... the country is split right down the middle over it.
Half say the future of the UK is better out.
Half say the future is better in.
The simple answer is none of us know the outcome.
Myself, I prefer to take the example of Iceland. Since leaving the EU and jailing their incompetent bankers a few years back they have flourished as an island and are trading happily with the world....things have never been better for them...
There is no reason why we can't do the same...only better.
All this gloom and doom,I don't buy it. Long term things will pan out just fine,we are a strong country with a good future for us all. |
Iceland has never been a member of the EU to be able to leave it.
It is a member of both the EEA and EFTA and is a Schengen country.
It's also runs a trade surplus due to its massive fishing industry and only, as we well know, has a population the size of Leicester. | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:18 - Jun 28 with 1067 views | skippyjack |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:12 - Jun 28 by yescomeon |
Someone appears to have stolen you're compelling argument and replaced it with a random list of countries. |
Yep.. I'm sure the common wealth disappeared over night | |
| The awkward moment when a Welsh Club become the Champions of England.. shh
The Swansea Way.. To upset the odds. | | Poll: | Best Swans Player |
| |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:22 - Jun 28 with 1054 views | BytholWyn |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:05 - Jun 28 by Lord_Bony |
Lads n lasses.
It's good to have debate... the country is split right down the middle over it.
Half say the future of the UK is better out.
Half say the future is better in.
The simple answer is none of us know the outcome.
Myself, I prefer to take the example of Iceland. Since leaving the EU and jailing their incompetent bankers a few years back they have flourished as an island and are trading happily with the world....things have never been better for them...
There is no reason why we can't do the same...only better.
All this gloom and doom,I don't buy it. Long term things will pan out just fine,we are a strong country with a good future for us all. |
There's a degree of truth in this. In the long run the UK will find its place whether or not its int the EU, the question is how much damage is done in the meantime.
Given than we have a national debt of £1.7 trillion, which is 83% of GDP, plus a huge private debt, there is the not inconsiderable risk of us defaulting on our debt. If that happens we will be completely ****ed. I mean worse-than-Greece-****ed. No one will bail us out - certainly not Germany.
You mention the recovery of Iceland - but decline to mention how the Irish economy (in the EU last time I looked) has bounced back after very similar problems. This is because small countries have much greater bounce-backability - whereas large economies, such as Britain's, have all the manoeuvrability of the Titanic. And we all know what happened to that...
Viewed from a Geological perspective total nuclear Armageddon would be great for species diversity in the long run (or a blink of an eye Geologically speaking). Shame about the interim... |  | | |
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| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:30 - Jun 28 with 1040 views | yescomeon |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:18 - Jun 28 by skippyjack |
Yep.. I'm sure the common wealth disappeared over night |
I'm still not sure the point you are making? | |
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| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:37 - Jun 28 with 1024 views | jackonicko |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 12:14 - Jun 28 by WarwickHunt |
F*ck me - the Brains Trust has arrived.
Are you suggesting this international clusterf*ck only happened just because the Remain campaign said it would?  |
There is a degree of truth in this. The campaign was remarkable for having a Prime Minister and a Chancellor of the Exchequer predicting dire warnings to our economy in the event of a Brexit. Before this year, when have you ever seen the holders of the two most important roles in Government talking about a collapse in the pound? It is unheard of - their job is to provide reassurance, stability and calm. Saying that a collapse will happen is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It was remarkable when it was said at the time, and not just with hindsight. A number of commentators made that point before the referendum was decided.
I'm not saying the markets wouldn't have tumbled without it. The reality is I am astonished by how resilient the equity markets are - the FTSE refuses to go below 6,000 at the moment. I expected sterling to tumble more than it has.
But this is short term - it's the long term that counts. After all, the UK had its credit rating downgraded after the markets closed last night. All the forecasters predicted another torrid day, and yet both the pound and the FTSE 100,250,350 and junior markets are all up. Go figure. |  | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:45 - Jun 28 with 1012 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 12:42 - Jun 28 by londonlisa2001 |
Do you reckon that when people make other life changing decisions they go through the same sequence of thinking?
'I need a hip replacement - my consultant who has donkey's years of training and experience tells me the best way to do it, but my mate who has no medical training at all but has a hip himself so understands my pain tells me the consultant is wrong. The consultant tells me that if if go with what my mate says there'll be permanent damage caused, it'll be painful, may cause sepsis and I'll never be able to walk properly again. Despite this I'll go with what my mate says as the consultant is a stuck up posh tw*t and my mate's a good bloke who is more like me and we both agree the consultant is making stuff up to get my hard earned coin. Spin forward to after the operation and I find that my hip is permanently damaged and I can't walk. But that's the fault of the consultant - it's a self fulfilling prophecy. In the meantime by the way, my mate's buggered off and I can't find him'.
Dear God. |
By your analogy you obviously have no concept of what a self fulfilling prophecy actually is.
"A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.
Which is typical of what adverse publicity does to Financial markets.
The only way that your analogy works is if the Consultant talks up the dangers so much that he makes himself so nervous he botches the operation that he performs on you himself. When that replacement hip operation is most often very successful and used all the time. | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:51 - Jun 28 with 1003 views | WarwickHunt |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:37 - Jun 28 by jackonicko |
There is a degree of truth in this. The campaign was remarkable for having a Prime Minister and a Chancellor of the Exchequer predicting dire warnings to our economy in the event of a Brexit. Before this year, when have you ever seen the holders of the two most important roles in Government talking about a collapse in the pound? It is unheard of - their job is to provide reassurance, stability and calm. Saying that a collapse will happen is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It was remarkable when it was said at the time, and not just with hindsight. A number of commentators made that point before the referendum was decided.
I'm not saying the markets wouldn't have tumbled without it. The reality is I am astonished by how resilient the equity markets are - the FTSE refuses to go below 6,000 at the moment. I expected sterling to tumble more than it has.
But this is short term - it's the long term that counts. After all, the UK had its credit rating downgraded after the markets closed last night. All the forecasters predicted another torrid day, and yet both the pound and the FTSE 100,250,350 and junior markets are all up. Go figure. |
Or then again, they were just stating the bleedin' obvious... |  | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:57 - Jun 28 with 988 views | jackonicko |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:51 - Jun 28 by WarwickHunt |
Or then again, they were just stating the bleedin' obvious... |
They might well have been. But it is still remarkable that they did. | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 14:23 - Jun 28 with 966 views | londonlisa2001 |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:45 - Jun 28 by A_Fans_Dad |
By your analogy you obviously have no concept of what a self fulfilling prophecy actually is.
"A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.
Which is typical of what adverse publicity does to Financial markets.
The only way that your analogy works is if the Consultant talks up the dangers so much that he makes himself so nervous he botches the operation that he performs on you himself. When that replacement hip operation is most often very successful and used all the time. |
Of course I know what it means but thanks for the patronising definition. I'm saying that it isn't a self fulfilling prophecy just because someone predicts what happens and that's what actually happens. He hasn't caused this reaction in the markets.
You assume far more power over the worlds financial markets lies with the prime minister than he actually has if you think that his statements during the campaign is what is causing the markets to react as they have done. | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 14:26 - Jun 28 with 957 views | Kerouac |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 14:23 - Jun 28 by londonlisa2001 |
Of course I know what it means but thanks for the patronising definition. I'm saying that it isn't a self fulfilling prophecy just because someone predicts what happens and that's what actually happens. He hasn't caused this reaction in the markets.
You assume far more power over the worlds financial markets lies with the prime minister than he actually has if you think that his statements during the campaign is what is causing the markets to react as they have done. |
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36648630 | |
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| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 14:32 - Jun 28 with 826 views | londonlisa2001 |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:37 - Jun 28 by jackonicko |
There is a degree of truth in this. The campaign was remarkable for having a Prime Minister and a Chancellor of the Exchequer predicting dire warnings to our economy in the event of a Brexit. Before this year, when have you ever seen the holders of the two most important roles in Government talking about a collapse in the pound? It is unheard of - their job is to provide reassurance, stability and calm. Saying that a collapse will happen is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It was remarkable when it was said at the time, and not just with hindsight. A number of commentators made that point before the referendum was decided.
I'm not saying the markets wouldn't have tumbled without it. The reality is I am astonished by how resilient the equity markets are - the FTSE refuses to go below 6,000 at the moment. I expected sterling to tumble more than it has.
But this is short term - it's the long term that counts. After all, the UK had its credit rating downgraded after the markets closed last night. All the forecasters predicted another torrid day, and yet both the pound and the FTSE 100,250,350 and junior markets are all up. Go figure. |
The daily change in markets is skewed by factors that often have nothing to do with underlying economics.
It's the long term indicators of economic growth or contraction that will over time trend the markets one way or another. Until we see a clearer picture of the effects of Brexit on stuff like growth, unemployment, interest rates etc etc, then the market will just flail around.
The very worst thing that can happen though is a period of protracted uncertainty, with no clear strategy being presented of the way forward. The ridiculous absence of a clue from anyone that led this is causing as much if not more harm to the longer term than the exit vote in the first place. I always believed that in the longer term things would economically even themselves out, but I didn't factor in the 'Boris in hiding while silently screaming what do I do now' element. A period of calm for a couple of months is sensible, a period of no government because they are idiots is not. | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 14:34 - Jun 28 with 821 views | jackonicko |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 14:32 - Jun 28 by londonlisa2001 |
The daily change in markets is skewed by factors that often have nothing to do with underlying economics.
It's the long term indicators of economic growth or contraction that will over time trend the markets one way or another. Until we see a clearer picture of the effects of Brexit on stuff like growth, unemployment, interest rates etc etc, then the market will just flail around.
The very worst thing that can happen though is a period of protracted uncertainty, with no clear strategy being presented of the way forward. The ridiculous absence of a clue from anyone that led this is causing as much if not more harm to the longer term than the exit vote in the first place. I always believed that in the longer term things would economically even themselves out, but I didn't factor in the 'Boris in hiding while silently screaming what do I do now' element. A period of calm for a couple of months is sensible, a period of no government because they are idiots is not. |
Very true.
Although the more I watch the markets these days, the more they seem to be skewed by nothing obvious at all. There might be something to TA after all.  | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 14:43 - Jun 28 with 818 views | londonlisa2001 |
What the market does or doesn't do from day to day is really not the issue Kerouac. Again, and I can't be ar***d to keep repeating this, in the long term I believe that economy will be fine, it's the short term impact on people that can least afford it that is the worry, and how long the 'long term' is.
The point that the article you linked to misses of course is that the Bank of England has rightly committed an enormous sum of money to keep the current falls within some degree of sense. It's not that we have a fall of 'only' 5% or 10% or whatever, it's that we have those falls despite the country (that's you and me) spending billions to prop it up at the moment.
The Bank of England could take action that would result in markets strengthening even more - give me a list of what public services you want cut to do that (on top of the ones that will have to be cut to pay for the current activity) and I'll tell you if I agree. | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 14:46 - Jun 28 with 813 views | londonlisa2001 |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 14:34 - Jun 28 by jackonicko |
Very true.
Although the more I watch the markets these days, the more they seem to be skewed by nothing obvious at all. There might be something to TA after all. |
Well they've definitely been helped by the BofE injecting billions in to the markets today :-)
In all honesty, Mark Carney is playing a blinder at the moment. | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 15:09 - Jun 28 with 789 views | WarwickHunt |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 14:23 - Jun 28 by londonlisa2001 |
Of course I know what it means but thanks for the patronising definition. I'm saying that it isn't a self fulfilling prophecy just because someone predicts what happens and that's what actually happens. He hasn't caused this reaction in the markets.
You assume far more power over the worlds financial markets lies with the prime minister than he actually has if you think that his statements during the campaign is what is causing the markets to react as they have done. |
Innit.
If I say the sun will rise in the east tomorrow is that a self-fulfilling prophecy or am I just stating the bleedin' obvious?
Some beauts on here... | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 15:38 - Jun 28 with 761 views | londonlisa2001 |
Oh dear God, Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid are about to form the opposite of a dream team.
Searches atlas for country to move to... | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 16:09 - Jun 28 with 728 views | jackonicko |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 15:38 - Jun 28 by londonlisa2001 |
Oh dear God, Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid are about to form the opposite of a dream team.
Searches atlas for country to move to... |
Ha ha.
I'll be gone by August! | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 16:24 - Jun 28 with 1110 views | londonlisa2001 |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 16:09 - Jun 28 by jackonicko |
Ha ha.
I'll be gone by August! |
You and many others I suspect ...
Cheer me up by saying you're going to the U.S. so I can laugh if the Trumpster gets in will you ! | | | |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 17:07 - Jun 28 with 1076 views | skippyjack |
Lohengrin please help them out.. they're f*cking dumb mun.
Am I the only tit who knows a little bit about the history of the UK. | |
| The awkward moment when a Welsh Club become the Champions of England.. shh
The Swansea Way.. To upset the odds. | | Poll: | Best Swans Player |
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| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 17:18 - Jun 28 with 1067 views | johnlangy |
| EU negotiations - How do you see them panning out? on 13:18 - Jun 28 by skippyjack |
Yep.. I'm sure the common wealth disappeared over night |
I can't remember who said it but they stated that our exports/imports to Eire are more than to the entire commonwealth.
We'll be able to set up new trade deals once we've left the EU but the disparity between our current EU deals and the commonwealth ones are incomparable in size. | | | |
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