| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election 11:19 - Jan 17 with 3295 views | Lohengrin |
Is this the crisis point approaching for Corbyn, do you think? If Labour is supplanted there by UKIP where outside of London have they left to turn? |  |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 11:34 - Jan 17 with 1824 views | acejack3065 |
You've embarrassed me now because I honestly have no idea what's going to happen in Stoke. I'm not Hunts biggest fan to say the least but I am sort of giving him the benefit of the doubt that he's leaving for a new job and not to ruin Corbyn. Still, MPs who leave mid term without good reason don't move on with my blessing.
I'd expect our vote to drop on current polling but whether UKIP have it in them for a steal I don't know. Both parties need to get the candidates right realistically. I wouldn't totally write off the lib dems either as they've been picking up council seats in pro leave areas like Sunderland. I'd hope that we would hold but probably with a reduced majority. The fact that this isn't a gimme tells you how much trouble Corbyns labour is in.
Put it this way. I'm more confident about holding Stoke than Copeland. Whenever that by election is called I expect us to lose it. |  | | |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 11:36 - Jan 17 with 1822 views | Darran |
I actually looked up Stoke Central last week and I'd be amazed if Labour don't win it. |  |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 12:30 - Jan 17 with 1796 views | Lohengrin |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 11:34 - Jan 17 by acejack3065 |
You've embarrassed me now because I honestly have no idea what's going to happen in Stoke. I'm not Hunts biggest fan to say the least but I am sort of giving him the benefit of the doubt that he's leaving for a new job and not to ruin Corbyn. Still, MPs who leave mid term without good reason don't move on with my blessing.
I'd expect our vote to drop on current polling but whether UKIP have it in them for a steal I don't know. Both parties need to get the candidates right realistically. I wouldn't totally write off the lib dems either as they've been picking up council seats in pro leave areas like Sunderland. I'd hope that we would hold but probably with a reduced majority. The fact that this isn't a gimme tells you how much trouble Corbyns labour is in.
Put it this way. I'm more confident about holding Stoke than Copeland. Whenever that by election is called I expect us to lose it. |
Tristram Hunt was an odd fit for Labour all along but you have to bear in mind that he's a professional historian first and a politician a distant second. Landing the V & A is probably a dream come true for him; I doubt Corbyn registered much, if at all, in his decision to resign.
Labour's best hope is to appoint a local candidate who speaks the same language and shares the same concerns as the voters you have to influence. A metropolitan parachutist's effete mewling would only reinforce that 'they' don't speak for 'us.'
Copeland? I think that's gone. You can write that off. That Labour held the seat as long as it has is probably due far more to the personal popularity of Jack Cunningham than a wider appreciation of Labour itself, Ace. I know Jamie Reed has served a few terms there now but if we're being honest that, again, is more to do with his being a local lad and Cunningham's preferred successor than anything else. The majority in Copeland has been successively whittled down.
Labour has never really had much point of contact with rural areas and in the age of Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell it seems to lack any intersection, nor it has to be said, does it seem to have any great desire to cultivate one.
Interesting times ahead. | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 21:38 - Jan 17 with 1718 views | pikeypaul |
How many million is this going to cost the tax payer?
Just because someone wants a career change. |  |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 23:29 - Jan 17 with 1686 views | Kerouac |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 21:38 - Jan 17 by pikeypaul |
How many million is this going to cost the tax payer?
Just because someone wants a career change. |
Not much, Scottish referendum only cost about £15m. |  |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 23:34 - Jan 17 with 1682 views | Kerouac |
My prediction. UKIP will take Stoke.
AND
Over the course of Brexit Welsh Labour will lose it's grip on Wales, which will be the final nail in the coffin for the Labour party in the UK. | |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 23:55 - Jan 17 with 1671 views | Glyn1 |
Why is this on the Football Only thread? [Post edited 18 Jan 2017 0:20]
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 00:04 - Jan 18 with 1665 views | rock1n |
Labour will be liverpool, Manchester, London and South Wales soon if they're lucky |  |
| The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 07:42 - Jan 18 with 1610 views | Highjack |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 00:04 - Jan 18 by rock1n |
Labour will be liverpool, Manchester, London and South Wales soon if they're lucky |
we will still be the unlucky ones. |  |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 08:22 - Jan 19 with 1541 views | Darran |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 08:23 - Jan 19 with 1539 views | Darran |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 08:22 - Jan 19 by Darran |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 08:32 - Jan 19 with 1534 views | blueytheblue |
Given the reality that usually opposition need to be ahead mid-term... Labour are toast.
So they'll then react by going further left. |  |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 09:02 - Jan 19 with 1519 views | trampie |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 08:32 - Jan 19 by blueytheblue |
Given the reality that usually opposition need to be ahead mid-term... Labour are toast.
So they'll then react by going further left. |
You think if there was 10 blocks on a piece of graph paper plotting Labour's position they would move from 9 blocks out on the right to 8 blocks out on the right is it ? lol [Post edited 19 Jan 2017 9:04]
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 12:55 - Jan 19 with 1487 views | acejack3065 |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 08:32 - Jan 19 by blueytheblue |
Given the reality that usually opposition need to be ahead mid-term... Labour are toast.
So they'll then react by going further left. |
Totally wrong. Corbyn is the last chance for the far left. As soon as he goes the PLP will never let someone like him onto the balot again. Corbyn scraped on with minutes to spare. MPs won't fancy broadening the debate ever again. | | | |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 13:03 - Jan 19 with 1482 views | blueytheblue |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 12:55 - Jan 19 by acejack3065 |
Totally wrong. Corbyn is the last chance for the far left. As soon as he goes the PLP will never let someone like him onto the balot again. Corbyn scraped on with minutes to spare. MPs won't fancy broadening the debate ever again. |
Politely disagree ;)
The real quality MPs will leave in droves before the next election. Those coming in will be Corbynistas. As usual, Labour will misread the view of the electorate, believe that Corbyn wasn't left enough...
Of course MPs know the score... but they are all Red Tories to some :p | |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 14:28 - Jan 19 with 1452 views | acejack3065 |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 13:03 - Jan 19 by blueytheblue |
Politely disagree ;)
The real quality MPs will leave in droves before the next election. Those coming in will be Corbynistas. As usual, Labour will misread the view of the electorate, believe that Corbyn wasn't left enough...
Of course MPs know the score... but they are all Red Tories to some :p |
Fair enough. I will change my mind if the McDonnell amendment passed conference this year. Given how much of a shambles the hard left were at the last conference I'm quietly optimistic that it won't. If anything the hard left is in a worse state this time round. Without a leadership election to rally around they've reverted to type and started picking fights with each other. Trots vs Alt Stalinists you see. I'll explain it to you on a thundery night if you're man enough ;)
Some clever spark did some number crunching a while back and had a look at the likely threshold for leadership nominations if labour gets spanked at the next election. They then compared the projected MPs we'd lose and compared that to the famous "core group hostile" list. Luckily enough the spread was pretty even on fanatics and blairites lost. They concluded that it would be as touch and go for a hard leftie to get onto the ballot as it was last time.
The 2015 intake was broadly more left wing than the existing intake but going from my experience and what I know about MPs in Wales, even the more left wingers would be highly unlikely to back someone like Corbyn again. Many former shad cab members backed Owen Smiths disasterous leadership election and then returned for unity. I highly doubt they'd back someone like McDonnell. He's much more unlikeable on a personal level than even Jeremy or Abbott.
Personally I'd be amazed if the PLP is as reckless again. Certain MPs only backed Jeremy to widen the debate after all. | | | |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 14:52 - Jan 19 with 1443 views | blueytheblue |
Please don't explain it to me, I fear I'd lose what little sanity I have left.
Problem Corbyn has is he's trying to play the "I'm in touch with the common person" role whilst living in the Kensington bubble, with similar minded ilk encouraging him without enlightening him as to what's really going on or how he's perceived.
YouGuv polls showed Tories are beating Labour in the North but worse for Corbyn and Labour, have something like a 16% lead amongst working class people polled. When Labour at the moment are struggling with their traditional core demographics, there's a lot to turn around in a very short time.
I can see Labour being out of power for a very long time but even worse, being unable to act as a working opposition. | |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 14:57 - Jan 19 with 1437 views | oh_tommy_tommy |
Goodbye Tristram
FFS , some of you are ,right put a donkey in some places and they will vote Labour .
Time for the party to split or more of his ilk to move along and make money the right way instead of stealing it off the tax payer .
Refer the other Hunt a muti millionaire selling off the NHS to his rich mates .
Pair of Hunts |  |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 15:15 - Jan 19 with 1416 views | nice_to_michu |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 14:57 - Jan 19 by oh_tommy_tommy |
Goodbye Tristram
FFS , some of you are ,right put a donkey in some places and they will vote Labour .
Time for the party to split or more of his ilk to move along and make money the right way instead of stealing it off the tax payer .
Refer the other Hunt a muti millionaire selling off the NHS to his rich mates .
Pair of Hunts |
Clueless |  | | |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 15:28 - Jan 19 with 1409 views | oh_tommy_tommy |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 15:15 - Jan 19 by nice_to_michu |
Clueless |
Enlighten me | |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 18:44 - Jan 19 with 1362 views | nice_to_michu |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 15:28 - Jan 19 by oh_tommy_tommy |
Enlighten me |
The idea that Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott et al will win anything except safe Labour seats would be hilarious if it weren't so sad.
Respectfully, I just cannot understand why some Corbyn supporters just fail to recognise the big picture.
You cannot do achieve anything from being in opposition. It's not "Blairite" to suggest that you need to win over middle-England if you want to influence the governance of this country, it's just a reality. | | | |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 19:04 - Jan 19 with 1352 views | rock1n |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 09:02 - Jan 19 by trampie |
You think if there was 10 blocks on a piece of graph paper plotting Labour's position they would move from 9 blocks out on the right to 8 blocks out on the right is it ? lol [Post edited 19 Jan 2017 9:04]
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Have you been living in a cave for 18 months? Corbyn hello | |
| The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 19:07 - Jan 19 with 1347 views | rock1n |
Reality is labour should split as alluded to above, as it should have done so properly in 80's.
I would join the SDP if it were in place now. | |
| The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter |
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| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 19:07 - Jan 19 with 1344 views | acejack3065 |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 19:04 - Jan 19 by rock1n |
Have you been living in a cave for 18 months? Corbyn hello |
Just don't. Honestly just don't. | | | |
| FAO Acejack: Stoke Central By-election on 19:11 - Jan 19 with 1343 views | exiledclaseboy |
If the election were held tomorrow I famcy the Tories' majority would be larger than 108 on those vote percentages. As it is, after another three years of Corbyn led Labour and boundary changes it'll probably be larger again. Labour is likely to be reduced to a rump. Unless Brexit goes really badly which given the shambles overseeing it is eminently possible, probably even likely. |  |
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