Yesterdays nonsense on Twitter which we quickly examined and put in to its place is one thing, it just goes to show how ridiculous some fans are. Going to extreme lengths to shout from the rooftops that Russell Martin is staying at Swansea City was pretty poor, but you know the accounts involved as we do. We even received emails from rogue accounts purporting to be journalists of some repute. Laughable when reviewed this morning.

The strength of the Southampton links are very real though, and with Russell Martin in talks with the Swans majority owners this week ( fact ) there has to be some reality placed on the situation. From here on in we will be sticking to our real sources and aside from that won’t be reporting anything until real context is placed on this summer’s madness.

And it is madness already.

It’s safe to say that you really do have to examine source information well, and a learning curve for some who contribute on here has been a steep one. It’s also suffice to say no job offers have been made for Martin elsewhere, and that includes Leicester City and Southampton, and no talks have been held. Martin is expected to remain in Washington DC this week with the majority owners keen to secure him on new terms. Unfortunately those new terms would have been a lot less during last season, now with a stock far higher it goes without saying his contract will be more regardless of where he is next season.

So, where is the issue ?

Quite simply, Southampton have a huge budget now they are relegated. The first of their parachute payments will kick in leaving millions of pounds of equity. However, there’s an issue, football finance expert Kieran Maguire also believes there will be a hundred million pound for Southampton drop due to TV, sponsorship and lots more. He said: “When you take a look at Leicester or Everton or any of the clubs involved, they would have made somewhere in the region of £110-130million last season from TV money. When they drop into the Championship that will decrease to just over £40million so that’s an £80million or £90million hit. The sponsors will have clauses in their contracts that say ‘we want our brand to be shown when playing Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United”. Maguire added: “Instead, with no disrespect to these clubs I’m about to name, we’re playing Rotherham, Millwall, Coventry — therefore there will be reductions in that. They won’t be able to charge as much for hospitality either, so we’re talking up to a potential £100million drop for a company that is earning somewhere in the region of £150-180million this year.”

As much as the Saints will lose money and projected revenue they won’t have an issue with putting Russell Martin on a huge managerial contract to prise him away from Swansea. Of course his staff will follow plus there will be compensation to Swansea. It’s even simpler to say if they want him they can have him, and it’s really only Russell Martin who will make the choice. That’s football. Swansea will not be able to compete with anything they offer him.

However, here’s the rub when it comes to a potential move for Martin and his staff. Martin will want Joel Piroe at Southampton, and that puts the Swans owners in the box seats. Remember he did this when he left MK Dons, he wanted Flynn Downes to come with him, and it earned Swansea City millions months later. Now Southampton won’t be looking to sell on Piroe as an example, but Martin will negotiate hard with them ( if he wants to leave ) That will interest the clubs owners at Swansea. They could make millions as well.

They can secure compensation for Martin and fill their coffers with millions more in transfers. And nit only Piroe. But at what cost ? Swansea have been on a two year journey of instilling a certain type of football at the club. And Martin is responsible for that. Some love it, some don’t, and really you can pick any club in the EFL and they would have sacked him during that run of draws and defeats last season.

Without doubt.

The issue now isn’t if Martin stays, it’s if he wants to leave. He has said time and time again he doesn’t want to leave and he loves living in Swansea, but a million pound contract will turn his head. And the Swans majority ownership will be interested in that happening with the millions they could potentially earn. The next few days of talks for Martin in Washington are of extreme importance for him, the Swans and more importantly the fans. He could be offered terms and money for squad improvement that disappoints him and that will lead to him leaving Swansea City. In fact the hard nosed management of the club could actually offer him less to force him to leave. That’s a possibility.

Whatever happens the only thing we do know is there is an expectation amongst some that he will stay with an improved contract and small budget. For us it’s not as simple as that. January is a month Martin will never want a repeat of. Jason Levien did himself no favours then, and trust is an issue now as a result. Russell Martin will see right through any attempts on this occasion to ‘blag’ another January situation. The upshot is this. The club is in an excellent position to now support Russell Martin and allow him to continue his work. It would have been a risk to do so back in March, but he has shown signs of improvement. He will be given far more time next season to bring about premier league football for Swansea City than he will at Southampton. A poor run there with players who don’t see his vision could see him out of a job in weeks, not dissimilar to Nathan Jones. That’s Martin’s only concern, his own personal pride if a Nathan Jones situation occurs.

Some bookmakers have Martin’s as odds on for the Saints job, but of course they don’t know the inner workings of Swansea City. The club is unique in its off the field management and despite its dissenters has always maintained an equilibrium at head coach level. They appoint extremely well if not with some risk, and as we know with Graham Potter and Steve Cooper that has been somewhat successful.

If we see Martin at Sundays DC United v LA Galaxy game then it’s possible things have been ironed out. If not then a new manager and coaching set up will almost certainly be sought. That’s the way it is, and whatever happens next do not be surprised.

Photograph open source

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