Predictions revisited: 16th to 13th Wednesday, 3rd Jun 2009 20:07
We continue our look back at our pre-season predictions with those we tipped to finish just below half way.
Prediction |
Team |
Reality |
How
many
out? |
13th |
Macclesfield |
20th |
7 |
What we said:
We do indeed think that better times are on the way for
Macclesfield this season, and not because of last year's dummy
spitting from the Cheshire set for having the audacity to think
that they were a team destined for the drop.
We think they're a couple of seasons away from being a side
capable of battling it out at the top end of the division, so
there should be no delusions of grandeur about where they think
they may finish these season, but the last couple of seasons
will have ensured that they are a little more realistic about
where they will finish.
It would appear that Alexander has identified that the defence
is what is needed the biggest improvements, and he has certainly
gone with tried and tested. Two of the three defensive signings
were from players who spent parts of last season at the Moss
Rose on loan, and the other is Paul Morgan who was a rock at
Lincoln for Alexander, tho it never really worked out for him at
Gigg Lane.
It's typical Alexander, make them hard to beat, and then hope
the rest will take care of itself. I suppose that's the way to
go for a side who's primary ambition after two successive
relegation battles, and that realism will go a long way to
ensuring their very comfortable safety.
|
So what happened:
Whilst we weren't a million miles off with
our prediction for Macclesfield, we have to hold our hands up to
a little amount of disappointment when it came to Macclesfield
and their season just gone. We had high(ish) hopes for the Silky
lot, but they finished as a team going nowhere, safe in the
knowledge that points deductions had ensured a stress free
finish to the season.
Take away those
points deductions, and they'd have finished just above the drop
zone, and the Macclesfield side that we saw at the Moss Rose was
utterly toothless - a far cry from your average Keith Alexander
side. Whilst they were sound enough at the back, up front they
seemed incapable of scoring, and a very rare clean sheet for us
was always on the cards.
It was certainly a
season to forget for Macc, other than a jaunt in the FA Cup
against Everton, and it would appear that Alexander has been
quick to act this Summer with a host of new signings to ensure
better things next time round. Couldn't be much worse could
they?
|
14th |
Barnet |
17th |
3 |
What we said:
If ever there was a team who could be
described as being a mid table side, then its Barnet. If League
Two is to be known as being the Rochdale Division, for our
longevity at this level, then we may as well start up a
subdivision known as the Barnet midtable due to their ability to
constantly finish between 12th and 14th.
There is so much to be admired about Barnet. They are a small
club, with an even smaller fan base, yet have constantly punched
above their weight since their return to the League. They play a
style of football which is very pleasing on the eye, and all
this has been done despite having to sell their best player
seemingly every six months. Take away their Conference roots,
and you could almost accuse them of being a Southern version of
ourselves.
Barnet supporters could be worried about the sale of Puncheon.
He was a top class player at this level, and will be sorely
missed. But their supporters can have faith that he will be
replaced and not missed, in much the same way that Hatch was
sold back in January. This is a club that knows what it is
doing.
But the worry will be how long they hold on to Adomah. It seems
a matter of time before he leaves Underhill with so many suitors
after him. I appreciate this completely contradicts what is put
above about the sale of players, but I see it more than this
constant sale of players whilst not putting the team in
jeopardy, it does prevent them pushing on to the next level
hence we're not tipping them for anything higher than 14th.
It's going to be the same old same old for Barnet. Some great
results against some of the best sides in the division, and
without doubt on the day, they're a match for anyone, but
performing over a season will be too much of an ask, and they'll
sit comfortably mid table looking forward to the following
season from around January.
|
So what happened:
Well the midtable prediction of Barnet
certainly came true but they were something of an enigma last
season. From disastrous to fantastic, it was as inconsistent as
season as they get.
For long periods,
they were the worst side in the division. With just one point
after eight games, then a further spell where they recorded just
one win in nineteen games, and it wasn't till the middle of
February that they picked up their second home win of the
season.
But a late
flourish gave their season a slightly inflated feel. Key
signings late on of experienced players like Paul Furlong
allowed them to gather some form to finish with a comfortable
mid table feel when for a long time they even seemed catchable
to the likes of Luton Town.
It remains to be
seen whether the changes during the season will be enough to
ensure the late form was something more than just a honeymoon
period for manager Ian Hendon.
|
15th |
Exeter |
2nd |
13 |
What we said:
Since
dropping to the Conference, they seemed to embrace the
Conference better than any other relegated side has done. I know
there's been sides who bounced back, but Exeter seemed to avoid
the usual "We're a league club here on holiday" ethic which has
haunted some sides, and they've avoided the traps that Oxford
and others have fallen into, becoming just another Conference
side.
Every season in the Conference showed a decent finish, with
progression on each season before, and we wouldn't be at all
surprised to see that continue this next season. They've got an
excellent manager in place, and a fan base which is capable of
more than re-establishing themselves back in the Football
League.
If there's any doubts, then it's the lack of time between
winning the Play Offs final and the start of the new season. For
a progressive club like Exeter, it doesn't perhaps give them as
much time as they would have liked to prepare for life in the
division above.
But we feel that the momentum from the Play Off win will
certainly see them through in much the same way that it did for
Morecambe last season, and given our theory of the bottom of the
division being much poorer this season due to the points
deduction and other club's reaction to it, this will be a year
to consolidate and build on for the future allowing some of the
much heralded Grecian youth players to come through.
|
So what happened:
It
happened once or twice, and we had it down as being merely a
coincidence. But Exeter have proved the rule yet again
that the Play Off winners from the Conference do better in the
Football League than the actual Conference winners. I don't know
quite why that is. They were certainly inferior to Aldershot in
their promotion season, but were light years ahead of them last
season.
Perhaps you could
put it down to the momentum that winning the Play Offs brings
with it, or perhaps coming up via the Play Offs ensures that the
team appreciates that they need to make the step up, whilst the
Conference champions tend to assume that they'll be fine anyway
with a bit of silverware under their belt.
Either way, we got
this prediction well and truly wrong, and it's hard to do
anything than be full of praise for the excellent work done by
Tisdale with the Grecians over the past couple of years and few
could argue that their promotion was anything other than
deserved. Team of the season without doubt.
Rest assured that
for next season we'll be tipping Torquay to finish significantly
above Burton next season.
|
16th |
Morecambe |
11th |
5 |
What we said:
Overall, I suspect things will be a touch worse for Morecambe
this time round, mainly due to the fact that the players leaving
Christie Park aren't as good as the players who have arrived
there.
Please don't start thinking that I'm going to do anything stupid
like sticking up for Jon Newby, but with Newby, Thompson and
Baker all leaving Morecambe over the Summer, that's very roughly
a total of thirty goals that have been wiped off from last
season's total. Take that away from any side, and you'll notice
the difference.
Morecambe fans will quite rightly point out that Blinkhorn
remains, and that Rene Howe has been drafted in for that very
reason, but much as I rate Howe, I can't see him getting
anything close to a figure which will make up for such a loss of
goals, especially when about twenty of those came from midfield.
I still think that there'll be more than enough in the Morecambe
squad to ensure that they are well away from the dogfight below,
and McIlroy will be far too canny for it to come to that, but
there's a huge difference between a buoyant Morecambe side and a
somewhat deflated one, especially on the back of losing arguably
their two best players and it would be very easy to claim that
they reached their peak at around December of last season.
|
So what happened:
I don't think I was alone in tipping
Morecambe for a more difficult second season in the Football
League, but all of us so called experts were proved wrong by
another season of achievement by Morecambe. Whether it was
viewed as an achievement by fans of the Shrimpers is a different
matter, but they proved themselves to be one of the better sides
in the division without quite pushing on towards the play offs.
It was a sluggish
start for our fellows Lancastrians, with just the one win for
their opening fifteen matches, but once that was cast aside,
their form was as good as anybody's. Indeed, from November
onwards, they were the fifth best side in the division with form
only marginally short of any of their rivals.
The lack of an out
and out goalscorer probably held them back as we predicted.
Former Dalesman Rene Howe was top scorer with just twelve goals,
with two of them featuring the cups. Whilst every team probably
laments the lack of a twenty goal a season striker if they've
not got one, but someone of that calibre would have been enough
to take Morecambe to that next level up.
With crowds having
dropped during that season season, it might be a struggle for
McIlroy to find that missing edge, and stability could be the
best he can hope for in all reality for 2009-10 season.
|
Photo: Action Images
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