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Predictions revisited: 16th to 13th
Predictions revisited: 16th to 13th
Wednesday, 3rd Jun 2009 20:07

We continue our look back at our pre-season predictions with those we tipped to finish just below half way.

Prediction Team Reality How
many
out?
13th Macclesfield 20th 7

What we said:
We do indeed think that better times are on the way for Macclesfield this season, and not because of last year's dummy spitting from the Cheshire set for having the audacity to think that they were a team destined for the drop.

We think they're a couple of seasons away from being a side capable of battling it out at the top end of the division, so there should be no delusions of grandeur about where they think they may finish these season, but the last couple of seasons will have ensured that they are a little more realistic about where they will finish.

It would appear that Alexander has identified that the defence is what is needed the biggest improvements, and he has certainly gone with tried and tested. Two of the three defensive signings were from players who spent parts of last season at the Moss Rose on loan, and the other is Paul Morgan who was a rock at Lincoln for Alexander, tho it never really worked out for him at Gigg Lane.

It's typical Alexander, make them hard to beat, and then hope the rest will take care of itself. I suppose that's the way to go for a side who's primary ambition after two successive relegation battles, and that realism will go a long way to ensuring their very comfortable safety.


So what happened:
Whilst we weren't a million miles off with our prediction for Macclesfield, we have to hold our hands up to a little amount of disappointment when it came to Macclesfield and their season just gone. We had high(ish) hopes for the Silky lot, but they finished as a team going nowhere, safe in the knowledge that points deductions had ensured a stress free finish to the season.

Take away those points deductions, and they'd have finished just above the drop zone, and the Macclesfield side that we saw at the Moss Rose was utterly toothless - a far cry from your average Keith Alexander side. Whilst they were sound enough at the back, up front they seemed incapable of scoring, and a very rare clean sheet for us was always on the cards.

It was certainly a season to forget for Macc, other than a jaunt in the FA Cup against Everton, and it would appear that Alexander has been quick to act this Summer with a host of new signings to ensure better things next time round. Couldn't be much worse could they?

14th Barnet 17th 3

What we said:
If ever there was a team who could be described as being a mid table side, then its Barnet. If League Two is to be known as being the Rochdale Division, for our longevity at this level, then we may as well start up a subdivision known as the Barnet midtable due to their ability to constantly finish between 12th and 14th.

There is so much to be admired about Barnet. They are a small club, with an even smaller fan base, yet have constantly punched above their weight since their return to the League. They play a style of football which is very pleasing on the eye, and all this has been done despite having to sell their best player seemingly every six months. Take away their Conference roots, and you could almost accuse them of being a Southern version of ourselves.

Barnet supporters could be worried about the sale of Puncheon. He was a top class player at this level, and will be sorely missed. But their supporters can have faith that he will be replaced and not missed, in much the same way that Hatch was sold back in January. This is a club that knows what it is doing.

But the worry will be how long they hold on to Adomah. It seems a matter of time before he leaves Underhill with so many suitors after him. I appreciate this completely contradicts what is put above about the sale of players, but I see it more than this constant sale of players whilst not putting the team in jeopardy, it does prevent them pushing on to the next level hence we're not tipping them for anything higher than 14th.

It's going to be the same old same old for Barnet. Some great results against some of the best sides in the division, and without doubt on the day, they're a match for anyone, but performing over a season will be too much of an ask, and they'll sit comfortably mid table looking forward to the following season from around January.


So what happened:
Well the midtable prediction of Barnet certainly came true but they were something of an enigma last season. From disastrous to fantastic, it was as inconsistent as season as they get.

For long periods, they were the worst side in the division. With just one point after eight games, then a further spell where they recorded just one win in nineteen games, and it wasn't till the middle of February that they picked up their second home win of the season.

But a late flourish gave their season a slightly inflated feel. Key signings late on of experienced players like Paul Furlong allowed them to gather some form to finish with a comfortable mid table feel when for a long time they even seemed catchable to the likes of Luton Town.

It remains to be seen whether the changes during the season will be enough to ensure the late form was something more than just a honeymoon period for manager Ian Hendon.

15th Exeter 2nd 13

What we said:
Since dropping to the Conference, they seemed to embrace the Conference better than any other relegated side has done. I know there's been sides who bounced back, but Exeter seemed to avoid the usual "We're a league club here on holiday" ethic which has haunted some sides, and they've avoided the traps that Oxford and others have fallen into, becoming just another Conference side.

Every season in the Conference showed a decent finish, with progression on each season before, and we wouldn't be at all surprised to see that continue this next season. They've got an excellent manager in place, and a fan base which is capable of more than re-establishing themselves back in the Football League.

If there's any doubts, then it's the lack of time between winning the Play Offs final and the start of the new season. For a progressive club like Exeter, it doesn't perhaps give them as much time as they would have liked to prepare for life in the division above.

But we feel that the momentum from the Play Off win will certainly see them through in much the same way that it did for Morecambe last season, and given our theory of the bottom of the division being much poorer this season due to the points deduction and other club's reaction to it, this will be a year to consolidate and build on for the future allowing some of the much heralded Grecian youth players to come through.


So what happened:
It happened once or twice, and we had it down as being merely a coincidence.  But Exeter have proved the rule yet again that the Play Off winners from the Conference do better in the Football League than the actual Conference winners. I don't know quite why that is. They were certainly inferior to Aldershot in their promotion season, but were light years ahead of them last season.

Perhaps you could put it down to the momentum that winning the Play Offs brings with it, or perhaps coming up via the Play Offs ensures that the team appreciates that they need to make the step up, whilst the Conference champions tend to assume that they'll be fine anyway with a bit of silverware under their belt.

Either way, we got this prediction well and truly wrong, and it's hard to do anything than be full of praise for the excellent work done by Tisdale with the Grecians over the past couple of years and few could argue that their promotion was anything other than deserved. Team of the season without doubt.

Rest assured that for next season we'll be tipping Torquay to finish significantly above Burton next season.

16th Morecambe 11th 5

What we said:
Overall, I suspect things will be a touch worse for Morecambe this time round, mainly due to the fact that the players leaving Christie Park aren't as good as the players who have arrived there.

Please don't start thinking that I'm going to do anything stupid like sticking up for Jon Newby, but with Newby, Thompson and Baker all leaving Morecambe over the Summer, that's very roughly a total of thirty goals that have been wiped off from last season's total. Take that away from any side, and you'll notice the difference.

Morecambe fans will quite rightly point out that Blinkhorn remains, and that Rene Howe has been drafted in for that very reason, but much as I rate Howe, I can't see him getting anything close to a figure which will make up for such a loss of goals, especially when about twenty of those came from midfield.

I still think that there'll be more than enough in the Morecambe squad to ensure that they are well away from the dogfight below, and McIlroy will be far too canny for it to come to that, but there's a huge difference between a buoyant Morecambe side and a somewhat deflated one, especially on the back of losing arguably their two best players and it would be very easy to claim that they reached their peak at around December of last season.


So what happened:
I don't think I was alone in tipping Morecambe for a more difficult second season in the Football League, but all of us so called experts were proved wrong by another season of achievement by Morecambe. Whether it was viewed as an achievement by fans of the Shrimpers is a different matter, but they proved themselves to be one of the better sides in the division without quite pushing on towards the play offs.

It was a sluggish start for our fellows Lancastrians, with just the one win for their opening fifteen matches, but once that was cast aside, their form was as good as anybody's. Indeed, from November onwards, they were the fifth best side in the division with form only marginally short of any of their rivals.

The lack of an out and out goalscorer probably held them back as we predicted. Former Dalesman Rene Howe was top scorer with just twelve goals, with two of them featuring the cups. Whilst every team probably laments the lack of a twenty goal a season striker if they've not got one, but someone of that calibre would have been enough to take Morecambe to that next level up.

With crowds having dropped during that season season, it might be a struggle for McIlroy to find that missing edge, and stability could be the best he can hope for in all reality for 2009-10 season.

Photo: Action Images



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