The three LFW pundits return to look ahead at a key QPR game at home to Aston Villa, and a weekend of sporting action elsewhere.

Three winners last week with Andy and Brian both backing both teams to score at Old Trafford, and Andy also correctly predicting a draw at Sunderland. Brian’s horse tip Holywell finished second at odds of 10/1 as well. Our professional odds compiler this week as Alex Rowe.

Andy Hillman

Well looks like I got both my QPR predictions spot on last week - score and lose against United, and a draw against Sunderland. Lost on my Torres bet though, as I didn’t quite appreciate just how bad Torres is at the moment.

NAP of the week - Lay Chelsea (vs West Ham) @ 16/15

Chelsea are odds on to beat West Ham, at Upton Park. That’s quite possibly some of the laziest odds compiling I’ve seen in recent times. Chelsea have only a single win in ten (and that was in Europe...) and are yet to score under Benitez, while West Ham have only lost once at Upton Park in the league this season, and one of the best defensive records at home in the league. Better than evens on Chelsea not winning? Thank you very much...

QPR related bet - QPR to beat Aston Villa @ 11/10

I hate getting on the QPR to win train, but I can’t not here. It’s being talked about as almost a foregone conclusion that we’ll beat Villa, and whilst I reckon that spirits will be high for our first home game under ‘Arry, it’s not going to be the walk in the park that most people think. Which is why I’ve also gone for...

QPR vs Aston Villa insurance bet - Benteke to score first @ 17/2

Hilariously, Darren Bent is still shorter odds than Benteke in the goal scorer markets, despite not actually getting any game time. If Villa do score and upset the party, Benteke will almost certainly get it. Let’s hope that the Grizzly Bears that are Hill and Nelson can deal with him...

I’ll do anything to get on telly me - Flintoff vs Dawson - Dawson to win on points @ 11/2

Flintoff, currently doing the media circuit to fill his days post Cricket, has a professional boxing match against the unbeaten American Richard Dawson. It’s only 4 x 2 minute rounds, so not a lot of time for a knockout. But Dawson should out box and therefore outpoint Flintoff. For some reason Flintoff on points is only 2/1 - I know that it’s going to be a fairly partisan atmosphere, but is he really that much more likely to win on points that Dawson? I’d be tempted to back a Dawson KO, but the 4 x 2 rounds lends itself to a points decision.

Winners so far:

Brian Power

Longshot 3.10 Newbury Teaforthree

QPR Related bet Adel to score first 8/1

Due to the fact that my house has resembled a doctors waiting room hospital ward this week with a little girl full of coughs and sleepless nights, a wife ready to deliver baby number two in the next four weeks and myself who is running round like a blue arse fly while battling the normal coughs and sneezes associated with a severe case of man flu, the opportunity to have a look at the betting world has passed me by.

At the time of writing this the Newcastle Fighting Fifth card is in doubt due to the cold weather - if an 18 stone Geordie lass can go out in this weather in nothing more than a face flannel covering her foo-foo then they make the women tougher than horses in that part of the world. If the card does go ahead I like the look of Avenging Ace in the 1.45.

At Newbury the Hennessey will be taking place and previous winner for this column Teaforthree will be ridden by AP McCoy. When announced that the champ would be on board the price came in from 16/1 to 12/1 but he has warned that Rebecca Curtis charge would like heavier going and more rain would suit.

We all know that our new boss Harry likes to have a flutter and I hope that if he read this column this doubling the size of our following then I hope he remembers to pass on any titbits of info. I have the feeling the first win of the season will be taking place this weekend and the great escape starts are home to VIlla. A couple of quid on Adel for first goal.

This week’s football has an intrigue about it and I can see a couple of shocks. The Fat Spanish waiter has overtaken Paul Hart as the most hated manager in West London after two games in charge and they head to West Ham who at 3/1 are a decent price. Everton are 6/1 to win at Man City and you could see that happening, Swansea are 7/1 to win at Arsenal but Wigan to win at Newcastle is a standout 3/1 and is this week’s NAP. I plan to put the above in small doubles and two results would see a return. However If the NAP comes in I expect our previously mentioned larger than life Geordie lass to be seen with her head in her hands trying not to spill her Kebab.

Winners so far:

The Pro

Ahead of our fifteenth ‘must win’ game of the season there seems to be a renewed confidence among players & supporters. Scrapping zonal marking, dealing with set pieces and for the first time this season not looking like losing a game (albeit against a toothless Sunderland) were the positives I took from Tuesday night. It seems Harry had been doing his own meticulous preparation on how poor Mark Hughes apparent attention to detail had been.

Early quotes of 6/5 about the home win this weekend are long gone (best price currently 21/20) and there seems to be a real feeling amongst punters & bookies alike that this could be our weekend to register that elusive first win. Personally I expect the money to continue to flow the way of QPR this weekend which should see us go off around the 10/11 mark.

Despite consecutive home clean sheets the spine of the Villa side still looks lightweight to me without Ron Vlaar at the heart of defence who missed out due to injury against Reading. Should he fail to be fit for Saturday that would see the inexperienced Ciaran Clark and Nathan Baker continue in front of Brad Guzan. Barry Bannan and Ashley Westwood have started the last few games in deep midfield roles both maybe good footballers in possession but with the power houses of M’bia and Diakite their direct opponents in the middle of the park I can see only one winner of the midfield battle. Other than the impressive Benteke there seems little pace or power throughout the Aston Villa side but as he continues to be isolated through the middle on his own I expect between them Nelson & Hill will deal with him.

It’s a first for some time but we should be confident of winning and doing it well this weekend so I’ll be backing QPR to win without conceding at 11/4 (Ladbrokes) along with a speculative few quid on Samba Diakite first goal 33/1 & 12/1 anytime (Coral).

Winners so far:

QPR and Everton to draw 13/5, 18/10/12

Tweet @agrowe86 @andy_hillman @BPQPR @loftforwords

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