Survival Or Relegation — The Scenarios

Saturday 27th April is one of the most important final days of the season for Colchester United since the end of the 2005/06 season, but instead of promotion out of League 1, this time it’s all about avoiding relegation to League 2.

Generally, the scenarios are simple - if the U’s get anything from their game at Carlisle, they survive, while Scunthorpe must beat Swindon to have any chance of avoiding relegation. If the U’s lose and Scunthorpe win, then survival or relegation will be decided by goal difference, goals scored or the head-to-head record between the two clubs – in that order. This leads to multiple scenarios that will determine the fates of the clubs.

If the U’s lose 1-0, Scunthorpe need to win by 2 clear goals, so if the Iron win…

1-0 – U’s stay up on goal difference

2-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

2-1 – U’s stay up on goal difference

3-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

4-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-2 – U’s stay up on goal difference

4-2 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

If the U’s lose 2-0, Scunthorpe just need to win to stay up on goals scored, so if the Iron win…

1-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

2-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

2-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

4-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-2 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

4-2 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

If the U’s lose 3-0, Scunthorpe just need to win to stay up on goals scored, so as per a 2-0 defeat for the U’s.

If the U’s lose 2-1, Scunthorpe need to win by 2 clear goals, so if the Iron win…

1-0 – U’s stay up on goal difference

2-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

2-1 – U’s stay up on goal difference

3-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

4-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-2 – U’s stay up on goal difference

4-2 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

If the U’s lose 3-1, Scunthorpe just need to win to stay up on goals scored, so if the Iron win…

1-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

2-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

2-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

4-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-2 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

4-2 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

If the U’s lose 4-1, Scunthorpe just need to win to stay up on goals scored, so as per a 3-1 defeat for the U’s.

If the U’s lose 3-2, Scunthorpe need to win by 2 clear goals, so if the Iron win…

1-0 – U’s stay up on goal difference

2-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

2-1 – U’s stay up on goal difference

3-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

4-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-2 – U’s stay up on goal difference

4-2 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

If the U’s lose 4-2, Scunthorpe just need to win to stay up, so if the Iron win…

1-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on head-to-head record

2-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-0 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

2-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

4-1 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

3-2 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

4-2 – Scunthorpe stay up on goals scored

Let’s hope it doesn’t come down to this and that Joe Dunne’s men do the business in Cumbria. Survival is ours to lose!

A matrix showing the various combinations of scores and what they would mean can be found on our Twitter and Facebook pages.

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