Who Is Going Down?
Monday, 7th Apr 2003 00:00

And The Little One Said Roll Over.......

Home > Story Index >There were Six in the League.......

Exeter saw a slight revival under a change of management a few weeks back but Saturday's defeat at home to Bury has left them 3 points away from safety with just 5 games remaining. A tough ask for a side that has won just 8 all season. I would guess that they need at least 8 points from those 5 games and I just cannot see them getting it. Also, add to that the resignation of five of their directors and you have a club in serious turmoil and that will not help their cause. I lived there for five years so it is sad to see them go but I think go is what will happen to them.

So that leaves just one spot - and that is now between Bristol Rovers, Shrewsbury, Swansea, Carlisle, Macclesfield and Boston. You can perm any one of those 6 sides to go down.

Sure you can argue that Rochdale and Leyton Orient could go but with 46 and 47 points respectively you would have to say it ain't going to happen.

Of those six sides, there are four 'six pointer' games between them. Shrewsbury play Macclesfield, Boston and Carlisle at home while Macclesfield also travel to Boston.

So which one of them will join Exeter in the conference for next season? Well, if you read the 7 steps to survival article a couple of weeks back you know I don't believe it will be us - that leaves just 5 teams. Let's take them in reverse order.

Bristol Rovers - 6 games left currently on 40 points. It looks a tough run in for the men from the Drizzle, starting tomorrow away at Rochdale. I can see them getting a point there and winning both their games at home. However, with three tough away trips on top of that - Oxford, Wrexham and Kidderminster, I cannot see them getting more than one point from there - makes a total of 48 points.

Carlisle - 7 games to play, currently on 41 points. Looked good in yesterday's LDV final against the other Drizzle but still lost. You would fancy them with seven games to play but those games come in a 3 week period starting on Saturday. They are not easy games either. A win at home to York and points from games against Rushden and Shrewsbury will see them enter the last day on 46 points. They will need to beat Bournemouth and this time they will fail - total of 47 points.

Shrewsbury - 8 games in 24 days but more than enough in their fixture list for them to get out of trouble. A local derby against Wrexham will yield 3 points for them and they will also beat Boston and Macclesfield at the Meadow as well as taking a point off Carlisle there. Total coming to 51 points

Boston - With a four points handicap to start the season, many thought it would be a big ask for them to overcome it. They've done well to be where they are now and with those four points they would be almost safe. But life is full of 'ifs' and they're not so let's see. The crunch for them will be Macclesfield at home and they will win that one - add to that home points against Hull and Southend and they will end with 47 points.

Macclesfield - It's tough for them but I can see them beating both Rochdale and Darlington at home giving them a total of 50 points.

As I said earlier, Exeter are already down in my opinion and I think will lose the next three before finishing with four points from the last 6 and a total of 42 points.

Thus, Leaving a final bottom seven of