Bill's Take: Barring A Catastrophe It's Top Two For Rams!
One of my favourite quotations is attributed to Arthur Balfour, British prime minister from 1902 to 1905: “Nothing matters very much, and few things matter at all.”
Balfour was obviously not a football fan as in the case of Rams fans, it mattered a great deal this summer that the club should permanently sign George Thorne after the young West Brom midfield player who while on loan, contributed so much to the Rams’ run to Wembley last season.
Thorne was eventually signed, but the Gods of Dashed Hopes struck with a speed and ferocity not seen by Rams fans since Billy Davies was manager. A knee injury picked up by Thorne in a friendly is unlikely to permit him to play a role this season.
Management has made a number of signings this summer in an effort to do even better than last season. Short of waiting for the next 46 Championship games to be played, what can we say about the club’s prospects?
Is automatic promotion a realistic ambition?
How about the playoffs again?
Last season at this time, I remember asking whether the Rams could defend well enough to challenge the best in the division. We have our answer on that one as we know this defence will concede goals, sometimes more than we’d like, but the Rams can certainly score enough at the other end to compete with the best in the Championship.
Here is the way I’ve tried to forecast the Rams’ position: for the Rams not to achieve automatic promotion, two clubs need to finish ahead of us. Last season it was Leicester and Burnley. Are there two teams in the Championship this season that are better than us?
Of the 18 clubs remaining from last season’s Championship, the Rams finished comfortably highest; 12 points ahead of next-placed Wigan (remember QPR have gone). Wigan, Brighton and Reading again look the most likely challengers from this group, but none appears to have made the improvements to seriously challenge the Rams.
The three teams promoted from League 1 — Wolves, Brentford and Rotherham — are all well managed and should all be competitive, particularly Wolves. But again, I don’t see any of them having the quality to finish ahead of the Rams.
As always, the enigma will be the three teams relegated from the Premier League. Clubs coming down from the Prem still have quality, experienced players, but the clubs are usually in turmoil both on and off the pitch; Cardiff, Fulham and Norwich are unlikely to be exceptions. Norwich looks to me as the most likely to threaten the Rams, as they seem to be working to keep their Premier League squad together.
I did some research on where clubs have finished in the Championship in the season after being relegated from the Prem. Of the 18 clubs relegated in the last six seasons, only three have gained automatic promotion the following season; Birmingham in 2008/09 and both Newcastle and WBA in 2009/10. No club has done it since 2009/10.
Of course, a person could always seek confirmation in what state of mind the players have. From last season’s Rams team, Craig Forsyth, Jake Buxton, Will Hughes, Jeff Hendrick and Craig Bryson have all signed long-term contracts this summer. This would suggest they have confidence in the clubs future.
All in all, I’m as confident as I’ve been for a long time. I think the Rams will overcome the loss of George Thorne, and barring another catastrophic occurrence, can look forward to finishing in the top two next May.
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