The old adage is that football is a game of two halves, but for this season it is very much the case that there are three distinct periods.
Saints travel to Aston Villa to complete what is the first third of the season in terms of the Premier League programme, of course you can only play what you have in front of you, but the reality is that the first 12 games of the season on paper at least is easier than the next dozen games coming up.
Our rivals will be looking at us and expecting us to blow up at any moment, but they might well be disappointed.
First though we need to complete the last of the opening dozen at Villa Park tonight and we need to finish that with a flourish to set us up nicely for the 2nd V 3rd visit of Manchester City to St Mary's next Sunday.
This will be the first of 12 games that will truly shape our season, in that time we will have played Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal twice, Manchester United twice, as well as top five hopefuls Newcastle, Swansea and Everton, that then leaves just Burnley and Palace away from the bottom half of the table.
Its a run of fixtures that when completed in the first week of February will see us either really being taken notice of as top five contenders or our detractors telling us they told us so.
However its all about coming through this tranche of games with a good number of points, so far before tonight's game against Villa we have averaged 2.27 points per game which is phenomenal, repeat that in the next couple of months and we will almost certainly finish top four, however the reality is that is going to be near on impossible.
What is possible though is to look at what we should be targeting during this period, I would say this would be the ideal target
Man City 1 point
Arsenal 1 point
Man Utd 3 points
Burnley 3 points
Everton 3 points
Palace 3 points
Chelsea 1 points
Arsenal 3 points
Man Utd 1 point
Newcastle 1 point
Swansea 3 points
Total 23 points
If we achieved this then if we assumed we had beaten Villa that would see us on 51 points after 24 games, to put that in perspective last season that would have seen us in 4th spot although in fairness last seasons top four was high scoring in points compared to this one so far.
So having looked at what would be a great points total lets take a more pessimistic look.
Man City 0 point
Arsenal 1 point
Man Utd 1 points
Burnley 3 points
Everton 1 points
Palace 3 points
Chelsea 0 points
Arsenal 1 points
Man Utd 1 point
Newcastle 1 point
Swansea 3 points
Total 15 points
This is of course assuming we fall away a bit, last season in the same 12 game period we got 13 points, so 15 would be a light improvement.
That would again assuming 3 points at Aston Villa see us on 43 points after 24 games, again comparing to last season we were on 35 and 43 would have seen us in 7th although only four points of of 4th.
What this is telling us though is how crucial the December/January programme will be to us, if we can come through it there or thereabouts to the top four then there is no reason why we should not kick on in the third half of the season.
But first we have to beat Aston Villa and then we can look clearly at the up and coming dozen games after that, the key will be to take more points against the big clubs than we did last, perhaps the most crucial game of the next few weeks is Manchester United at home, I think City have the resources to pull clear of us, but if we can beat United then we will do them serious damage in their attempts to catch up with us.
It is all about concentrating on the 7 clubs who finished above us last season, wth luck we could be out of sight of Liverpool by the New Year and perhaps Spurs and Everton, that would leave it a five horse race for a top four finish, the more of the big clubs who implode the better because I feel they will be our challengers, we have a better squad and resources than with respect Newcastle, Swansea and West Ham, but the big clubs still have claws.
It is an exciting time though and if we get through it unscathed we will be stronger in February with the likes of J Rod and JWP back from injury and perhaps a signing or two in the transfer window.