Earlier this season I wrote that one of the conditions for the Rams making the playoffs would be reducing goals conceded 61 last season to somewhere nearer 50. Now, 8 games into the season - a reasonable sample - we have already conceded 12 goals, meaning at this rate we are on target to let in 69 over a 46 game season.
It is not quite time to panic, but management needs to recognize that with this defence we are going nowhere. Yet the goalkeeper and both fullbacks were changed during the summer for hopefully better players, or in the case of Brayford, the best available on our budget. So our only option now is to take a look at the centre back pairing.
In defence, Keogh and Buxton are the survivors from last season. They started 26 league games together; I think all of Buxton's starts were at centre back, not right back. In those 26 games, the Rams conceded 38 goals, for an average of 1.46 goals per game. This would extend out to 67 goals over a 46 game season; right about where we are at so far this season.
In the 20 games that Keogh was partnered by someone other than Buxton - O'Brien, O'Connor, Gjokaj, Freeman, even Brayford for a couple of games - the Rams conceded 23 goals, for an average of 1.15 goals per game.
Over a 46 game season, that extends out to 53 goals. The 14 goals we could save in a season from not having Bucko at the back could make the difference between making the playoffs and getting the drop.
I should add that in the four league games last season where we conceded three or more, Bucko was there each time.
Football is a team game, and there are other factors in the Rams' situation. But one player who is not up to the job can make a real difference. I'm convinced that if the Rams are to live up to their potential, Bucko has to go.
What are the options at centre back? I doubt that the club is going to spend big money bringing someone in, especially as we now have mounting problems with injured midfielders.
If bringing someone in is not going to happen, then its time to give Freeman or Gjokaj a run alongside Keogh. It’s possible that there would be no real improvement with either of them; but we know there will be no great improvement if we keep Bucko.
Ultimately it’s all down to the numbers, and for the Rams defence the numbers tell the story.