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Set pieces could hold key for QPR v Charlton - betting
Friday, 22nd Nov 2013 21:46 by Andy Hillman and Owen Goulding

Having both called the Reading v QPR game spot on before the international break, our two pundits are back to look ahead to this weekend's game with Charlton and a weekend of football action elsewhere on the coupon.

Andy Hillman

The last international break of the year meant that I had a week off just at the wrong time, as I was averaging at least two winners a week at good odds for the last month. Having said that, bit of an odd one last time out, correctly calling both QPR and Coventry results at good odds, but missing the mark by a large distance on all four Premier League shorts — recommending U1.5 goals on a six goal thriller a particular high/low light.

Bit of a European theme for my recommendations this week, as there are some fabulous odds on offer across the leagues.

NAP of the week: Ajaccio vs Marseille - Marseille to win at Evens

Bit of an outlandish NAP of the week, but Marseille at evens means there’s money to be made. Ajaccio are awful, having won only once all season, to the only team below them in the league. Marseille have wobbled of late, which has pushed their odds out considerably, but they are a team fighting for a Champions League spot again and will have far too much for Ajaccio.

QPR related bet - QPR -1 Handicap @ 15/8

Everyone has been saying that sooner or later, QPR are going to give someone a hiding. Charlton look like a pretty decent shout for that team. Charlton may have won their last two away games, but they are their only wins in their last ten, and they are flirting around the relegation zone. QPR are strong at home, and with Niko Kranjcar, Junior Hoilett, Matt Phillips and Andy Johnson all hopefully fit to help Charlie Austin, we could finally see the big win we’ve all been waiting for.

Merseyside Derby - Liverpool to win, BTTS @ 19/5

Everton have started incredibly strongly for them, have got over the loss of Moyes and Fellaini with almost no side effects and have added Romelu Lukaku to their side. But Liverpool are doing even better, sit second in the league, have both Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez bang in form, and hold a bit of an Indian sign over Everton, having only lost once in their last 13 meetings against their rivals. Everton have not lost in the league at home in 2013, but it almost seems fate that Liverpool will be the side to inflict their first defeat.

Hamburg vs Hannover - Hamburg to win @ Evens

Hamburg are actually in a lower league position than Hannover, but don’t let that fool you, Hannover are awful, especially away from home, where they have lost all five of their games. Hamburg have seen more goals in their games than any other team in the league, and having scored 26 of them themselves are not short of firepower. In Pierre-Michel Lasogga they have a striker who has scored eight in his last six, and Hamburg should have enough to leapfrog Hannover in the league.

Roma vs Cagliari - Roma Win to Nil @ 7/5

Roma have stuttered after their astonishing run of ten successive league wins, drawing their last two. They still boast the meanest defence in the league, and the international break allowed their thin squad to recuperate. Cagliari are yet to win away in the league this season, and a Roma win to nil at 7/5 appeals.

AC Milan vs Genoa - Genoa to win, DNB @ 11/2

Milan are currently in the midst of a quite spectacular slump. They have only one win in nine games, and they’re not scoring many goals either, despite the presence of Balotelli and Co. Little Genoa on the other hand have won four of their last five games, including tough away games at Lazio. They won their last three games to nil as well. 11/2 on a Draw-no-bet basis is absolutely massive in the circumstances.

Previous Winners:

NAP of the week: Wimbledon vs Coventry — Coventry to win @ 10/11 08/11/13

Reading v QPR Match drawn @ 12/5, 08/11/13

West Brom v Crystal Palace — WBA to win @ 3/5, 01/11/13

Fulham vs Man Utd — Man U to win & BTTS @ 5/2, 01/11/13

Man City vs Norwich — Aguero anytime @ 10/11, 01/11/13

QPR v Derby : HT Draw @ 5/4, 01/11/13

NAP of the Week - Crystal Palace vs Arsenal - Arsenal (-1) at Evens, 25/10/13

Aston Villa vs Everton - Everton to Win @ 13/10 25/10/13

Chelsea vs Man City - Aguero to score anytime @ 9/4 25/10/13

Arsenal vs Norwich - Arsenal to win & BTTS @ 2/1, 18/10/13

Crystal Palace vs Fulham - Fulham to win @ 15/8, 18/10/13

Everton vs Hull - Ht/FT Draw/Everton @ 10/3, 18/10/13

Charlie Austin anytime goal scorer v Millwall @ 11/8 18/10/13

QPR related bet: QPR to win to nil v Barnsley @ 33/20, 03/10/13

NAP of the Week - Forest to beat Huddersfield @ 5/6 — 02/08/13

NAP of the Week - Bordeaux vs Monaco - Monaco to win @ 6/4, 09/08/13

NAP of the week: Monaco to Beat Montpellier @ 4/7, 15/08/13

NAP of the week: Man City to win to nil @ 20/23 — 29/08/13

NAP of the week 2 - Man Utd vs Palace - Utd to win to nil @ 21/20 — 13/09/13

NAP of the week 3 - Sunderland vs Arsenal - Arsenal to win @ 8/11 — 13/09/13

QPR Related bet: QPR vs Birmingham - QPR win @ 3/5 — 13/09/13

Giroud and Sturridge to score anytime double 6/1 — 13/09/13

QPR to win at Yeovil @ 11/13 — 20/09/13

NAP of the week — Blackpool vs Leicester — BTTS @ 7/9 — 20/09/13

NAP of the Week - Liverpool to beat Sunderland @ 7/10 — 27/09/13

Roma vs Bologna - Roma win to Nil @ 7/5 — 27/09/13

The Pro

QPR play host to a London derby this weekend as proper football resumes after a few weeks off. Charlton are the visitors and bring with them an inconsistent record. Their recent form is quite good; losing only one of their last five games, when a Ross McCormack inspired Leeds gave them a lesson in finishing just prior to the international break. However, their previous two away games will cause concern to Rangers, with narrow 1-0 victories at both Birmingham and Blackburn . Charlton have a very young team, and Chris Powell is slowly trying to build for the future. Simon Church will probably lead the line for them on Saturday, supported by a very young midfield of which Callum Harriott is one to watch. With Leon Cort still missing, the defence will be marshalled by the inexplicably wide-shouldered Michael Morrison, and he will also provide their main threat from any set-pieces. Those set pieces will be delivered by captain Johnnie Jackson and he must be kept quiet if QPR are to succeed here.

It's hard to evaluate Charlton matches as generally they look tight defensively, but due to their young team, they will throw in an ill-disciplined performance once in a while. The game to me looks one that will depend on whether Joey Barton can get hold of the midfield. His experience should help massively in a game here, alongside Gary O'Neil and I'm struggling to see Charlton keeping QPR at bay for this one. And the player I'm looking at for my bet on this game is one who has improved massively in recent weeks as his fitness returns. Matt Phillips has looked a real threat in recent weeks, and with the licence to play virtually as a forward when at home.

QPR Bet: Matt Phillips to Score at Anytime at 3/1 (Skybet)

Elsewhere, my bet of the weekend comes across the Severn Bridge where Man Utd travel to Cardiff . Man Utd are in excellent form and many will have them down as coupon bankers for this one but I think the value is the other side. Cardiff are at full strength, and Man Utd have a massive match in the Champions League to worry about on Wednesday as they travel to Germany to face Leverkusen . Phil Jones, who has been in excellent form in recent weeks, is now out for the foreseeable future and joins Michael Carrick and Danny Wellbeck on the injury list. Robin Van Persie is a doubt and may be rested with Leverkusen in mind. If you look at United's form in games prior to a Champions League fixture so far this season, its pretty poor reading - a draw and a loss at home to Southampton and WBA respectively, and an unconvincing win against Palace. Cardiff have looked strong at home this season, beating rivals Swansea, putting Man City to the sword, keeping Everton at bay and even the loss to Tottenham was very harsh.

There will be plenty of backers of Man United at 8/13, but I wouldn't touch it with stolen money.

My Bet of The Weekend: Cardiff or Draw @11/8 (general)

Big Price Goalscorers - incredibly unlucky last time with Sean O'Hanlon hitting the post and having an effort cleared off the line at a huge price.

This week's recommendations come against teams who just can't stop conceding from set-pieces. They are...

Fulham v Swansea - Ashley Williams (16/1 Anytime @Ladbrokes)

Crewe v Port Vale - Chris Robertson (16/1 Anytime @WillHill)

Previous Winners:

Reading v QPR Draw - 12/5 (Bet365/Betfred) 08/11/13

Steven Caulker to score Cardiff v Swansea 15/1 888Sport, 01/11/13

Burnley QPR HT 0-0 7/4 and Draw at HT 11/10., 25/10/13

Oldham to beat Swndon - 2/1 (BetVictor), 25/10/13

Bet of the weekend - Charlie Austin to score anytime v Barnsley Evens 03/10/13

Benteke to score at any time v Arsenal at 11/4 (Coral/Skybet), 17/08/13

Nile Ranger First Goalscorer Each Way 11/2 (Paady Power/Skybet), 28/08/13

QPR to score first v Leeds at Even money (Bwin/Betfair), 28/08/13

Joey Barton to score at any time vs Middlesbrough 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet), 27/09/13

Tweet @andy_hillman

Pictures — Action Images

Photo: Action Images



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