Its deja vu for Southampton Football Club after West Ham United won their game in hand at Peterborough last night, nothing changes the goals remain the same.
This time last season as we chased the second automatic promotion spot in League One I emphasised that all we had to concentrate on was a two points per game average and that if we did so and achieved that then the overall target was far more important than the odd individual point dropped here and there and the same theory applies now.
With all three clubs competing for those top two places now having seven games left the finishing line is starting to become visible, as i mentioned in a previous article, for Saints that precise spot is 92 points in total, if we get that then whatever happens at Upton Park on Saturday neither side can catch us and that means we need exactly 14 points from seven games, funnily enough that two points per game ratio that I have been banging on about all season.
Back in November I predicted we would need 13 wins to get us promotion, plus of course a few draws, I spoke about our poor away record and said that we would need at least 8 wins on the road, some said I didnt know what I was talking about and that our home record would be enough, but my target is not going to be far wrong, since then we have won 11, at time of writing it looks like we may need another 4 rather than 2, but dont forget that doesnt account for West Ham or Reading dropping any other points, so thats probably a maximum rather than a minimum, indeed if we beat Reading at home then almost certainly 3 wins will do it, sat here with 7 games left I think that i got my maths spot on four months ago.
West Ham winning at Peterborough felt like a big blow to our promotion hopes, but if we look at it in the cold light of day, we have to dedeuce that it isnt a blow at all, nothing changes for us, all it means is that the Hammer's arent going to lay down as easy as we hoped they might, but with a six point gap between us and them I know what position I would rather be in and thats ours.
In fact their win last night will hopefully make us focus, if they had of lost a feeling of complacency would have been easy to let set in and with 7 games to go its too early to be complacent, now we can focus properly and go into a weekend knowing that a win at Blackpool will see us gain ground on one of the chasing teams, possibly both and that even a draw will still see us lose no ground to at least one, this weekend is one that if we focus then we can take another big step.
So we stand this morning well versed on what we now need to do in the next month, as it has always been the most important game is the next one and every game is a must win game, if we do this then it doesnt matter what our rivals do, after this weekend the finishing line wont just be a lot nearer but it will be a lot more visible to us thant it will be to the other two, whatever the results on Saturday, we just need to make sure that we get the job done sooner and put the pressure on them and not ourselves.