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Predictions - 5th
Predictions - 5th
Tuesday, 4th Aug 2009 22:05

Top five time now, and we're heading south for our latest prediction. Recently relegated Northampton Town are our tip to finish in 5th place.

5th - Northampton

Whilst the league table doesn't lie, and all those other clichés, Northampton could probably count themselves as being a touch on the unlucky side to have been relegated last season. For them to drop down, it needed something of a miracle act by Carlisle. With two games to go, the Cobblers held a three point advantage over their Cumbrian rivals, with a vastly superior goal difference.

It was Northampton's to throw away, and that was exactly what they did losing both games, whilst Carlisle scooped four points to ensure Town returned to the basement division for the first time since 2005-6. They only had themselves to blame. With over half the season gone, they were top half and the odd whisper of play offs had been murmured.

The biggest issue for them was scoring goals. Just three of their players were regularly scoring goals last season, and two of them were full backs, one of whom has since buggered off the Leeds and the other currently itching to get away.

Their boss Stuart Gray has proved to be something of an exception these days in terms of being a manager that's been in his job for a while, led his side to relegation yet kept his job.

Usually, they only keep the job if they've been put in the job late on, yet found the task of survival too much to bear. In Gray's case, it seems like the relegation has to land firmly on his shoulders.

Now given that traditionally Northampton have been something of a yo yo side that are too good for League Two, just not quite good enough for League One, perhaps there is a realisation or acceptance that continuing this status quo doesn't necessarily mean that their boss should be given the push, but given that Gray has been in the Northampton hot seat for exactly one day longer than Keith Hill has been our boss, you would at least be looking for some sort of progress.

Whilst the relegation may well have been accepted, failure to bounce back straight away may not be tolerated, and given that Cobblers often start very slowly in this division before a second half of the season push, Gray may well find the patience finally running out.

My memories of Northampton in this division would suggest that Gray may be gone before the leaves have dropped off the trees. This might be complete rubbish, but I do have this recollection that when the Cobblers have been relegated to this division, they are usually awful for the first two or three months of the season, sacking their manager and then embarking on a run as good as any side in the division and sneaking either into the Play Offs or automatic promotion spots during the last weekend of the season.

Certainly Gray has at his disposal a squad that is more than capable of getting out of this division first time out. Or at least he did at the back end of last season, but with so many changes over the Summer, it's somewhat difficult to judge.

They've been hit by departures. Giles Coke decided to become part of the Jim Gannon revolution at Motherwell, and taking advantage of FIFA laws to move for a free transfer when a move to another English side would have demanded a fee to be paid.

Crowe's departure to Leeds is another blow. The right back weighed in with eight goals last season since being switched into become a make shift midfielder - a role that led his side to an unbeaten run.

Which pretty much left them with Adebayo Akinfenwa from an attacking perspective. Akinfenwa is with his ninth club since arriving back in this country six years ago after a spell in Lithuanian football, which perhaps tells a story in itself, but it would appear that things settled well for him last year, allowing him to grab fifteen goals in an otherwise forgettable season for the Cobblers. Fifteen goals in League One would suggest an even bigger total in League Two, making the 20-1 on him to be top scorer very tempting. Or decent odds to be on his way before the transfer window closes

But Gray has been equally busy bringing people in. Forward Steve Guinan is a proper been there, done it style of striker, and a more mature player than he was in his early days when he got into a fair bit of bother.

He's also signed former Man U defender John Curtis. Curtis was always a disappointing signing for me back in the CM01-02 days, never living up to his England U-21 captaincy mantle - something that has mirrored his career, with him pretty much spending the last two years in the "Where are they now?" file awaiting the call from the Sunday journos doing the latest "I played with Beckham" story.

How Curtis will do after two years in the wilderness remains to be seen. History indicates that players like Curtis on the decline do not buck that trend at any stage, so perhaps Northampton are best not holding their breath on this one.

With the exception of Guinan, the Cobblers squad looks somewhat weaker than last year but thats not to discount them completely. I'm expecting a very similar season to what (in my head at least) happens to Northampton every time they're down here. Dreadfully poor till Novemberish, Gray gets the boot, and then they start a no nonsense onslaught on League Two.

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Photo: Action Images



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