Saints now have a run of seven games, that by the end of we will either be hanging on in there or cut adrift at the bottom.

Whilst as Im sure that most people will tell me, after these next seven games we will still only be 14 games into the season, the fact of the matter is in any football season you can look back on it and see the games that did really turn out to be must win ones and even identify just where a target for the season was effectively won or lost.

Saints now enter a crucial run of games that come November 28th will see us well positioned to kick on in the New Year or could well see a lot of disharmony at the Club.

The run includes four of the seven at St Mary's and this is why its so vital, Saints survival is going to be underpinned by home form, but its not just that, all of these games are ones we have to target to win, away from home its the same, West Ham, West Brom & QPR are all in the bracket of winnable away games, to be blunt lose all three of those and not only had we might as well not bother with another away fixture and just post the three points to the home club, but it would leave us in big trouble.

Back in the 1990's when Saints fought more than a couple of relegation dog fights, where you stood at Xmas was always a good indication of where you might be in the second half of the season, 20 points usually saw you comfortable, in order to be anywhere near that on Boxing day when our visit to Fulham will see us exactly half way, the seven days coming up need to be negotiated with what I would term success.

At the start of the season I put the Premier League into two divisions, a top six where we would be lucky to poick up a point a game average and the other thirteen teams where we would need 1 1/2 points per game average, so far we are playing catch up, on that formula that would give us a mid table position we should now be on 8 points, we are exactly half of what we should be, if we take out the top six sides and use my formula of a 1 1/2 points per game average, which would see us on 39 points and probably safe assuming we lost all twelve games to the top six, then we should be on six points, a two point gap doesnt sound much at this stage,but it would only put us on target for around 26 points and that clearly wouldnt be good enough.

This is why this seven game spell is so crucial, in Spurs at home it only contains one game against what I would call a top six side, I know some will point to Everton's position, but lets be blunt the top four will be nailed on and I dont see Everton having the depth to stay in the top six.

So a minimum points haul from these games would be 10 points, all in line with my averages, if we can exceed that total then that would put us well clear of the bottom three, get less than ten through and i would fear for our chances of steering clear of relegation.

But its not just about getting the points on the board, a look at the league table shows that beating Norwich at home is absolutely essential, anything less and it spells disaster, but its also crucial that we take four points from the games against Swansea and QPR, if we beat the Swans then it could well drag them into the relegation fight and again we need to ensure we keep our heads above water and dont get beaten at Loftus Road.

These next seven games will shape our season, make no bones about it, a point a game average in this division usually sees you safe, we need to be maintaining that if we are to then negotiate the difficult pre Xmas spell, as to be blunt I cant see us getting much at Liverpool, Chelsea or even Fulham on Boxing Day.           

Photo: Action Images

bstokesaint added 12:18 - Oct 15 Nick, on this occasion I agree with you. We've played the majority of the best teams and know what we can expect from the toughest opponents. We've made a few repeated mistakes (players and manager) and it's now time for those to stop. The majority of the more realistic fans have stuck with the team until now, but this is the time to forget about excuses and get it right. Just a couple of back-to-back wins can make a huge difference and get us moving in the right direction.

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SingaporeSaint added 14:30 - Oct 15 Agree Nick but I'd shorten that to the next 3. We play 3 teams who are athletic and historically we havent been good against athletic sides We will be underdogs in all 3. Lose all 3 and we and certainly NA are likely in big trouble. This 2 weeks has probably come at a good time for us - I hope the mgt have assessed the performances and will come up with a formation and strategies to compete for 90 mins in each game. We've had good moments in a number of games but poor selections, formations or subsitutions have been a factor almost every week and we need to get all of these right ongoing. We get them right and we could win any of these 3 games, get them wrong and we will almost certainly lose. W Ham is a massive game for us and we need to cope with the power of Carroll et al and then lets see if we do better against Bale than Fox and co did at the weekend...

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Scummer added 17:02 - Oct 15 i read a report on the Wales game and it sounded as if Bale was tearing past Fox. Not sure if he switched flanks specifically to target him, but it doesn't inspire confidence for the next home game. West Ham will be tough (as it was last year, even if we did grab four points) but these are the games we have to get something from if we are to stay up. I've come round to your definition of must win. There are other reasons to have to win a football game than just the mathematical surety of achieving a given points target. I have no desire to see us become this year's plucky losers, a la Blackpool.

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REEDYREEDOREEDZ added 13:29 - Oct 16 I think we need 18 points from our next 12 games, which takes us up to the end of the calender year, and the start of the transfer window. This will put us on 22 points with 19 games played. See below: (Fixture, Date, Points Required) West Ham V Southampton Sat 20 Oct 1 Southampton V Tottenham Sun 28 Oct 0 West Brom V Southampton Mon 5 Nov 1 Southampton V Swansea Sat 10 Nov 3 QPR V Southampton Sat 17 Nov 1 Southampton V Newcastle Sun 25 Nov 1 Southampton V Norwich Wed 28 Nov 3 Liverpool V Southampton Sat 1 Dec 0 Southampton V Reading Sat 8 Dec 3 Southampton V Sunderland Sat 22 Dec 3 Fulham V Southampton Wed 26 Dec 1 Stoke V Southampton Sat 29 Dec 1 If we can hit this total then I'm sure Adkins will keep his job and be given funds to spend in January. If we fall short of this target then Cortese has a difficult decision to make.....

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