The first in an objective look at the season assesses the goalkeepers.
Football is an emotional game, unlike Cricket its not easily to analyse it through statistics, sometimes therefore we get a blurred view of the merits of players through single events, forwards can have awful games, yet if they pop in a last minute corker of a winner that can often change the fans perception and in their minds they will remember it as a great game for him, in reverse goalkeepers can often play blinders but will be remembered for the one error that they make in a game.
Kelvin Davis in this respect is a perfect example, before we start i dont think that Kelvin had a bad season, in fact the opposite for most of it he was very good, but unfortunately in several prominent games he was found wanting and because of this gaining promotion was that much harder and to be blunt was the difference between finishing second and costing us the Championship.
The problem for kelvin is his game does not suit League One football or the Championship for that matter, in these divisions most of the Goalkeepers work is not stopping shots but dealing with crosses and controlling the area, these are not Kelvin's strong points, but its these basic's that if completed competently, instill confidence in the defence and do not allow the opposition to creeate chances.
The problem was for kelvin was that in most games we dominated, both at home and away, with a strong defence it meant that the opposition had few chances to get decent shots on target so were forced to shoot from distance or lob hopeful balls into our box and it was here the problem often lay.
Any player whether he be a keeper or outfield will make mistakes, what counts though is how many mistakes are made, a good player will perhaps make a couple, when you have more than that questions have to be asked.
But it isnt as simple as that there is a difference between a mistake and a flaw in someones game, in Kelvin's example against Brentford at home he made an awful mistake in letting a tame shot slip under his body, now this happens to all keepers, in fairness to Kelvin in his five seasons he has perhaps let it happen no more than three times and that acceptable, but when its a flaw thats when it doesnt become acceptable.
From memory I can think of six games where Kelvin either failed to come off his line for a simple claim of the ball or let in a shot at his near post tamely, in five of those games we lost and in the sixth, Peterborough we drew, I havent included a 7th at Exeter in which Kelvin was at fault for the goal, nor the aforementioned Brentford defeat at home. In those six games if kelvin had done the basics then in the case of the three before Xmas we could possibly have got a head of steam like Brighton, or the three after not only strode above Huddersfield a lot earlier but challenged Brighton, it helps a side to know its keeper is solid.
There are others but off the top of my head I cant recall them
Now Im sorry to be harsh, but a goalkeeper that makes errors in around 20% of the games is going to cause you problems.
Of course Kelvin deserves praise where its due and in several games he won us points, Sheffield Wednesday away for instance he was superb, but in general he had far more very bad games than very good, many times i have seen in his defence that he is a good shot stopper, statistics dont prove this, take a look at any game on the official website and too often shots on target have been aroun one goal conceded for every three shots on target, compare that with the other end.
Its not that Kelvin is a bad keeper, its that he is a keeper that seems to lack concentration at key times and as i say this isnt an error but a flaw and to be blunt not flaws that have just surfaced.
Nigel Adkins now has a big dilemma, does he stick with Kelvin and push Bart Bialkowski to challenge him for the jersey, or does he look to make a key signing in goal, the problem with this is that unlike outfield players, when you sign a keeper you make a big statement and that is you dont have real confidence in your current number one, or in this case one and two, its no use looking to get another promising keeper, we either stick with what we have got or sign an established first choice.
If Adkins does go for a new keeper it will be harsh on Kelvin, but football is a harsh game, if we as a club are ambitious there is no room for sentiment, the reason that we are not Champions is because of individual errors (not just Kelvin's)we continued to make those error's from the opening game until virtually the last game, if we want success then they have to be cut out, its tough on Kelvin but you have to be both constructive and honest, the same flaws have surfaced in each of the last five seasons, are they suddenly going to disapear now ? As I say if we want to succeed their is no room for sentiment, appreciation yes, sentiment no.
The other question between the sticks is Bart Bialkowski, ironically our longest serving player in terms of league debut for the club, he has proved an able deputy for kelvin when he has been called upon and undoubtably having a keeper who can take over has spurred kelvin on, but as he approaches his sixth season at the club he for his own career needs to play regularly, next season at St Mary's i feel will either be the start of something bigger or his last, if Adkins does decide to sign another keeper then thats the door for Bart, however if he doesnt Bart should look to seize the opportunity.
Tommy Forecast is hard to comment on, because in his three years he has yet to be anywhere near playing a first team game, when he arrived it was with a big reputation as a young keeper at Spurs, but in these three seasons he has stagnated, so much so that the best loan deal we could get him was at Eastbourne in the Confernece, where he was not exactly a rousing success in his five games, apart from that four games at Grimsby two years ago remain his only league appearances and turning 25 in October this is no career.