With six games left of the 2013/14 Premier league Season just what should Saints be looking for as a points target for the final league table of the season.
As it stands Saints start the run in to the end of the season in a very healthy position, 8th in the table with 48 points is already 7 ahead of our total last season from 38 games.
If we break that down our average points per game is 1.55 per game, if we continue this average then we should end up on 57 points, last season that total would have seen us finish in exactly the same position we sit now. However it should be noted that West Brom finished in that position with a grand total of 49 points, only one more than we have now, however the gap between them and Liverpool in 7th was a whopping 12 points.
But is that total of 57 points realistic ?
If the final games go to form then i would say that yes 9 points from them is realistic but a little stretching in that we have some tough games in the run in which could go either way. My prediction from a pessimistic viewpoint would be the following Man City Loss, Cardiff win, Villa draw, Everton draw, Swansea draw, Man Utd draw, that would be 7 points if we did nothing special in the last six games
Our first job is to hold 8th and keep Newcastle at bay, if we stay on our par score and reach that 57 point mark what are the geordies likely to get in their final games, taking the role of pundit again, i would say Man Utd (h) draw, Stoke City (a) loss, Swansea (h) win, Arsenal (a) loss, Cardiff (h) win, Liverpool (a) loss, so if it goes to form then they get 7 points and we finish 8th. From my pessimistic viewpoint and we also get 7 then we finish on 55 and they end up on 53, as I feel that we have a better chance on increasing that pessimistic score of 7 than they do of improving on their par score of 7 I think that we should be able to hold on to 8th, a big key will be what happens this Saturday, we have to be prepared for defeat, after all most teams lose at the Etihad, as long as Newcastle dont beat United then it will be a good weekend for us. A draw in this game will probably be best if we want to firstly stay above Newcastle but still harbour hopes of catching United.
Can we catch Man Utd, well of course that is possible, but it needs us to have an exceptional end to the season, if we look at their run in and predict, Newcastle (a) draw, Everton (a) loss, Norwich(h) win, Sunderland(h) win, Hull(h) win, Saints(a) loss, even if we take a positive viewpoint that we will beat them in the final game, its hard to see past their final 3 home games at Old Trafford and anything other than 3 home wins, this prediction would give them 10 points and a finishing total of 64, that would leave us needing to win 5 out of 6 of our last games and get a draw, that perhaps emphasises how tough it would be to hit 7th, it needs United to go into virtual freefall in the final games, a six point lead on us is massive at this stage of the season.
So our target remains as it has done now for a while, to get more points than Newcastle and finish 8th, that will be a good achievement and exactly in line with what I predicted earlier in the season, back then I said it would be difficult to finish above 8th and that anything higher would depend on Everton imploding after the departure of David Moyes, in fact the opposite has happened, this perhaps shows just how tough it is at the top, the top 7 clubs are virtually bolted o, before we talk of qualifying for the Champions League we need to be emulating Everton and putting in some strong regular finishes in the Premier League top 7, when we have done that then we will have taken a step forward, make no bones about it, Champions League football is a big leap forward, it is a realistic target and a stretching one, that being the case it wont be achieved by fine words, but by having a long term aim in moving forward, next season a good step forward would be to achieve 8th again, Ok its not moving forward in league position, but it is a step forward in the fact that we will be establishing ourselves as a top ten club with foundation and not just a one season wonder, there is little to choose either this season or last in between 16th and the top 10, last term it was 8 points between 8th and 16th, as it stands at the moment its 9, that tells us that the difference between finishing 10th and only a couple of places above the relegation zone is probably more about luck than judgement, its about having a kinder fixture list, playing the right teams when they are out of form etc.