9th - Shrewsbury

Closer inspection shows them operating on a budget far in excess of any other side in the division, and taking that into consideration, surely you'd be expecting a better return for the money. After all, when you go out and sign an individual player in an overall deal including wages which approaches £300,000, then you don't expect to be struggling to make it into the top seven.

In fairness to the Shrews, you can't knock them for spending the money. They're not going out spending money they've not got. With the financial health of the ground move, funds still knocking about from the sale of that City keeper, and the recent revelation that their ground brings in £1.8 million worth of revenue due to its facilities before you even take matchday takings into account, there's no worries that they are making an all in gamble for one season. Even with all this extra revenue and spending, you get the feeling it is still done with financial prudence in mind.

Simmo did a great job of playing down the money he had to work with, but Holt wasn't the sole reward for his spending as has been claimed in certain quarters. The likes of Jackson, Coughlan, Cansdell-Sherrifff, and Murray all arrived on well above average money.

It's the inconsistencies that marred their season. Home form best in the division, away form the worst. Even in the one game at the New Meadow against us on Easter Monday, they put in a first half display which was as good as anything we faced last season which had us hanging on for dear life, yet by full time, I left the ground somewhat disappointed not to have all three points to take back up the A49.

That final day win against Dagenham was an absolute life saver for the Shrews, and the Wembley appearance gave the season an extra layer of paper to put over the cracks. So what was it? Success or underachievement? 19 other sides in League Two would have taken the trip to Wembley, but did that represent value for money for the Shrews? Answers on a postcard....

It'd very easy to use this as another opportunity to go Simmo bashing, and having turned the Shrews from a side that finished 18th to one that matched the achievement that we all celebrated Keith Hill for, surely he's doing something right. It's clearly not the work of someone without ability.

But you look at what he had to work with last year, and you just continually ask yourself over and over just how he didn't lead them to promotion last season. He had the best striker in the division, one of the most talented midfielders in the division and arguably the most reliable defender to go with him, along with a whole host of other signings that he had made, and it reads like a Championship Manager dream.

Yet it was only that last day win which prevented them finishing below fellow under achievers Bradford City. It's certainly make or break time for Simpson as a manager. He's now got four League clubs on his cv which is remarkable for a man of his age but another year of failing to take advantage of the resources made available to him at Shrewsbury will make it look increasingly look like his Carlisle experiences were the exception rather than the norm.

The question for me comes down to whether the Shrewsbury of 2009-10 is a better side / squad than that which started the 2008-9 season that so many of us had tipped to be division winners.

The loss of Ben Davies to Notts County won't be the blow that many of their supporters think he will be. We had him twelve months ago as being the man that the season depended on, and we cited him as a player who stands out in under achieving sides. There was no doubting his ability as a player, but throughout his career, he has only ever finished one season above Dale in the league table which perhaps tells its own story.

But how do you replace a player like Grant Holt? With Holt, you always had a chance in any game in any game. More than any other player at this level, he could grab you a goal out of anything. He'd be your battering ram, your workhorse, your winger, your defender, and also your genius who could do things that nobody else could.

Of course, with all of that, you get the needless bookings, the windup of the officials, games out through suspension and games played on a suspension tightrope as further bans linger, but you'd take all of that. They are merely a small sacrifice for the 28 goals that Holt scored for Shrewsbury last season. As we said before, how do you replace a 28 goal striker?

It could work to Salop's advantage. History has shown that when you have a player significantly better than those around him, then the team tends to get drawn into a "give the ball to him" mentality and they don't play to their potential as a result. The absence of Holt could see the players undertake more personal responsibility and see themselves flourish.

Of course, Simmo has now got a big chunk of money burning a hole in his pocket and despite comments to the contrary, we all know that he'll be dying to bring in a replacement for his most vital of cogs from last season. He's failed in a couple of attempts to bring in a striker so far, and any enquiries have seen the price tag immediately raised as everyone knows that he has the Holt money to play with. Simpson might find himself unable to bring in that replacement, and be left with the best available.

Those coming in aren't without quality, but there's been nothing so far to grab you and think that they'll be enough to take Shrewsbury to the next level up. They're all decent players, but they're very much supporting actors when Shrewsbury are crying out for a new lead male.

There are other concerns. Last season, Luke Daniels proved to be outstanding and the sole reason they weren't on the end of a battering in that second leg against Bury. His replacement Chris Neal remains largely untested at league level having at 23 only made seven appearances above reserve team level in the professional game. And as we all know with keepers, it's only when they've been playing week in week out that you can really make any sort of assessment on them.

Graham Coughlan was outstanding last season, and fully deserving of his place in the PFA team, but he's approaching 35 this season, and expecting a full season at the same quality from someone of that age is a big ask. It's one he might fulfil but there's certainly enough to raise a question mark over it.

The Holt money may well get spent in the next week or so which could put a completely new perspective on the whole season, but even with the potential signing of a twenty goal a season striker, would you claim they were a better side than they were twelve months ago? And that for me remains the question. We often use it as the benchmark for a side to decide whether they'll be higher or lower placed than the previous season when doing these predictions. If you tried claiming they were stronger, then you'd be sectioned.

So does Simmo have it in him to get more out of what he has to work with? Their whole season will depend on that, but this will be his third season, and past excuses of working with someone else's team cannot be used having brought in 27 players through the doors of the New Meadow since taking charge of the club in March 2007, and fans will see through an over reliance on the Holt departure as a way to explain away a season of disappoinment.

Given that we feel that they are weaker than twelve months ago, and as such won't finish as high as last time round. Simpson has shown that when the pressure rises, which it will this year for him, he doesn't respond well to it, and it could drag Shrewsbury further down.

There's still plenty of quality there, and they were far from being the one man team they were incorrectly labelled last season, but I don't see anything within the Shrewsbury camp now to make them stand out from all the sides chasing the promotion places, and whilst you can look at their peers and pick out the potential match winners. Such a signing may well arrive, but you're pinning your hopes on a player who hasn't even signed yet.

And in a Summer following a Play Off final defeat, such a marquee signing is essential if you are to beat the much hyped Play Off hangover which hit them so badly after their last trip to Wembley. The club off the field looks to be in outstanding shape and the envy of every other club at this level. On the pitch, it remains a very different story.

A season spent looking back at 2008-9 and wondering what could and should have been  beckons for Shrews, as they ponder whether they've missed their golden opportunity.

Agree or disagree? Comment on this prediction by clicking here