Blackpool's poor away form mean QPR should still win Saturday's match at Loftus Road despite a lengthening injury list, according to our two resident betting experts.

Andy Hillman

Two solid results in the bag last week, as Everton and Wigan duly obliged for me, but it was a weekend of near misses for me, as Newcastle and QPR both scored in the ninety fourth minute to win their respective games (obviously happier about the QPR result than the Newcastle one...) and Liverpool decided that they’d score their customary first half goals, but make it a bit sporting by conceding a couple as well...

NAP of the Week - Man City to Beat Arsenal @ 11/10

Has *anyone* looked at the 3/1 on offer for Arsenal to beat Man City, and thought, ‘that’s good value, I’m going to have a bang on that...’ of course they haven’t. Arsenal are actually pretty formidable at home, having only lost once there in their last 17 games in all competitions, but we all know that they are absolute flat track bullies, and are pushovers against the very best opposition. Opta tells me that there have only been four goals scored in the last five games between them at the Emirates, so maybe a narrow 1-0 City win is the order of the day?

QPR related bet: QPR (-1) vs Blackpool @ 2/1

The injury pile at QPR just keeps getting bigger and bigger, as we bid farewell to Niko Kranjcar and Joey Barton this weekend. Whatever XI we put out should be enough to get comfortably get past Blackpool however. The Tangerines may have won two of their last four, but let’s not kid ourselves, they were both at home, against rock bottom Millwall and Huddersfield, and they were their only two wins in their last 24 games. We are still very strong at home, Blackpool haven’t won away from home for 12 games, losing the last three in a row. In their last six away games they have only scored twice, and conceded 15. Odds of 2/1 for QPR to win by two goals or more is huge, especially with Ravel Morrison in the form that he’s in...

Forest Ablaze - Ipswich to beat Nottm Forest @ 13/10

Apologies for the god awful pun, but it’s always good to take the piss out of Forest — I still haven’t forgiven them for the way they acted at Loftus Road a few years ago, and the fact that we can’t beat them at the City Ground is really beginning to grind. Anyway, I digress. Forest have the worst form of any team in the division, without a win in eight games. They are coming up against an Ipswich side quietly moving through the gears and league table - four wins from their last six. Ipswich at way better than evens looks generous.

Battle of Mid Table - Southampton to Beat Newcastle @ 3/4

In a season where the top seven are all competing for European places, and the bottom 11 are all competing to avoid relegation, it must be fantastic / awful (delete as appropriate) for Newcastle and Southampton in eighth and ninth respectively, with absolutely nothing to do but wait for the end of the season. Newcastle, currently without Alan Pardew, and more importantly Loic Remy, are absolutely toothless at the moment, having scored in only four of their last 13 games. Southampton’s England stars will want to book their place on the plane (got I hate that cliché...) and should have enough to see off Newcastle.

Weekly Roma win to Nil - Roma Win to Nil (vs Sassulo) @ 17/10

Roma’s match against Sassulo is the very definition of a ‘gimme’ - Sassulo, 19th in the League, have lost ten of their 15 home games, and 14 of their last 17 home and away in all competitions. They have conceded 11 goals more at home than the next worst team, bottom of the table Catania. Roma have only lost to Napoli and Juventus in the league this season, and still have comfortably the best defence in Serie A. 4/7 for the straight win HAS to be in your weekend accumulator, and 17/10 for the win to Nil looks like possibly the bet of the weekend...

Previous winners:

Roma vs Bologna - Roma win to Nil @ 7/5 — 27/09/13

The Pro

A somewhat resurgent QPR take on a struggling Blackpool side at Loftus Road as they look to cement their place in this year’s play-off lottery. With the senior players actually starting to look like they actually still have some professional pride, things suddenly look interesting again for the QPR faithful. The team selection was odd on Tuesday night with Yun Suk-Young probably wondering what more he could of possibly done to warrant a starting place but Harry, as he has so often done throughout his career, put his faith in experience and it paid off. The fact that Green was a standout man of the match lends to the theory Rangers were a tad lucky to take all three points but luck plays an important part in things at this stage of the season so it couldn't have come at a better time.

As for betting on this game, one stat jumps out a mile that makes me want to get involved in a big price bet. Blackpool have been woeful away from home and indeed have only taken one point from their last eleven away games. But the more interesting stat is in three of their last four away games, they have conceded a goal to an opposing centre half- Wes Morgan, Grant Hanley and most recently David Wheater have all profited from Blackpool's inability to cope with the aerial threat of the opposition. With Clint Hill fighting tooth and nail for the cause and having gone close a number of times recently, I can't ignore the prices on him to score first and any time at 33/1 a d 12/1 respectively worth a few quid of anyone's money.

Recommended Bet: Clint Hill first and anytime scorer. 33/1 and 12/1 (Will Hill and Skybet)

Elsewhere my best bets of the week lie firstly in the ‘draw no bet’ market in the top of table clash between Burnley and Leicester. Most bookmakers have made Leicester favourites here but I'm struggling to separate them. In a game where in truth both sided would no doubt settle for a draw, the 11/10 on Burnley in the DNB market is appealing. A profit if they win, no harm done if they draw. Makes much more appeal then the 8/11 best price available for Leicester in the same market.

My other bet of the weekend comes in League One where Stevenage host Port Vale. The Valiants play-off chase looks to be petering out with the fans turning on Micky Adams and unrest appearing in the camp. A recently resurgent Stevenage will be looking to continue what four weeks ago looked an impossible task of avoiding relegation

The 6/5 currently available for a Stevenage win looks much too good to ignore.

Bets of weekend:

Burnley v Leics - Burnley DNB 11/10. (Paddy Power and BetVictor)
Stevenage to beat Port Vale 6/5. (Ladbrokes or Skybet)

Big Price Scorers:

Clint Hill QPR - see above.
James Tarkowski - Oldham v Brentford ( 12/1 anytime PaddyPower)
Harry Maguire - Swindon v Sheff Utd (13/1 Anytime Paddypower)

Previous Winners:

Joey Barton to score at any time vs Middlesbrough 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet), 27/09/13

The Twitter @loftforwords, @andy_hillman

Photo: Action Images

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