A few weeks ago this looked to be a real six pointer, but the last two games have made a big difference to Saints.
Three weeks and two games ago Saints trip the Madejski looked to be a daunting prospect, back then only five points seperated the clubs and with both facing two tough games no one was putting much money on the gap changing between then and now.
Three weeks is an age in football though, Reading went to form and lost at both Man Utd and Arsenal, but we defied the odds and took maximum points from the visits of Chelsea and Liverpool, meaning that the two teams kick off with a massive 11 point gap and needing the points for two different reasons, Saints of course to move that much nearer to safety and Reading to keep a slim chance of survival.
The big surprise of the last week or so though was the appointment of Nigel Adkins as Royals boss and he ironically makes his home debut for the club so to speak against his old employers, so will the Adkins factor have any influence on the end result ?
There are those that say it will and they could be right, however it could affect it either way, from a Reading point of view it could be positive, he will obviosly be keen to put one over on Nicola Cortese and will want to win that much more, however from a Saints perspective what he can do is limited, Adkins may want to win much more than normal, but how about his players, to them it is just another game, yes of course they will want to win it, but from this aspect, Adkins influence on his own team will be no greater than it was last week at Arsenal, his problem is that he only has what he has to work with.
That being the case Reading's promotion last season was based on a particular style of play, it involved keeping things tight at the back and going quickly on the break, this season though they dont have the quality to do either, only Wigan have let in more home goals and they have played one more at home, and away from home only Villa, Newcastle and ourselves, so that is a warning to us perhaps.
Last season their record home and away was virtually identical, this season its far more home based with 18 of their 23 points coming at the Mad Stad, 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats, thats equal to or better than the bottom five, so we shouldnt put this down as an easy home win just because of the fact they are bottom, make no mistake its their away form that has left them adrift, not the home form, indeed without those two wins against Chelsea and Liverpool we could have gone into this game with a worse home record.
So Adkins goes into this game knowing that defeat would almost certainly leave them with a mountain to climb that will be a bit too high for them, a draw wont do them any favours either, he will know that given their away record, if they are to stand any chance of survival they have to win their four remaining home games and given that two of them are against Liverpool and Man City that wont be easy, this being the case the question is, will Adkins stick with Reading usual style and concentrate on not conceding early, going on the break with the get out of jail card of throwing caution to the wind in the closing stages if neccessary, or will he try to change Reading to more his style.
Personally I think it would be folly to change things too much, but as i often say you do the same things you get the same results, so he is truly in a dilemma here, either way it all comes down to quality of players and sadly for Nigel Adkins I dont think he has got too much to work with in Premier league terms, so can he influence this game as much as some may think ? I would say no.
From a Saints line up point of view, hopefully Artur Boruc will return in goal after his dizzy spell last week, then its only a question of whether Pochettino chooses to return Ramirez to the starting line up or stick with a winning side, Adam Lallana is still feeling his groin so i would expect a place on the bench at best for him.
So Saints should go to the Madejski without fear, we are capable of beating Reading and we owe them one for last season, we have a style that works well for us and although isnt perfect and still lacks a few players, is a good base to work on, we have to concentrate on what we do best and push them back, but a word of caution, Reading are best when on the back foot and our downfall is often getting caught on the break, if we keep it tight then we should be capable of outscoring Reading.