LFW betting columnist Andy Hillman and professional odds compiler Owen Goulding are back to look ahead to QPR’s trip to Bolton and value elsewhere in the weekend markets.
So, one month in, and what have we learnt? Firstly, that my NAP’s of the week are sound with three out of three coming in so far. Secondly, we’re still not sure how the Championship is going to play out — I was surprised at just how negative Ipswich were in our weekend win. Monaco are still under priced and worth a back, but PSG should be on your betting blacklist until Lauren Blanc can get Fabien Barthez over to kiss his head for luck — their 1-1 home draw with Ajaccio last week was a real coupon buster.
NAP of the week: Monaco to beat Toulouse with a -1 handicap @ 6/5
Monaco are scoring for fun, Toulouse have only scored once in two games, and the price on Monaco is still not, in my opinion correct. Keep riding the Monaco gravy train whilst you still can...
QPR related bet: Match Drawn @ 12/5
Bolton have drawn four of their last five league games, and are yet to win this season. QPR are performing above what many of us predicted, but Bolton have one of those annoying Indian signs over us, winning six of our last seven encounters. That being said, I fancy us to get something from this game, and a draw would not be a bad result.
Ill-advised backing Clive’s rugby team bet: Hull FC to win the Challenge Cup @ 11/4
It’s the Challenge Cup final on Saturday, and Clive advises me that ‘it’s got Hull’s name on the Trophy...’ Now we all know the rules concerning Clive’s predictions and backing the opposite, but life in the pub would be unbearable if I backed Wigan here. Hull to win 50-0, and an easy life for the LFW travelling crew.
Home Double : Southampton and Spurs to win @ 2/1
Southampton looks ridiculously short @ 8/11 against a Sunderland side that look like they are going to struggle this season, and Spurs’ squad size should give them an advantage against Swansea in the Sunday post Europa league encounter.
Sixfold Accumulator - Monaco, Man City, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Spurs & Real Madrid to win @ 6/1
Spread out over the weekend, with Spurs the longest odds at 13/20. If you add the Southampton home win into the accumulator, it hits 10/1...
Previous Winners
NAP of the Week - Forest to beat Huddersfield @ 5/6 — 02/08/13
NAP of the Week - Bordeaux vs Monaco - Monaco to win @ 6/4, 09/08/13
NAP of the week: Monaco to Beat Montpellier @ 4/7, 15/08/13
Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells us…
QPR travel to the Reebok in good spirits to take on a stuttering Bolton side in Saturday’s early game. We all know what happened last time QPR visited Bolton - I for one remember it all too well as I backed Clint Hill to score that day and was refused a pay-out by what will remain an unnamed bookie - not that I’m still bitter or anything...
Bolton's squad on first glance, looks decent for this level. However, if you analyse it a bit further, it is made up of a number of players who have always promised big things but never actually delivered with any level of consistency. Zat Knight, Jermaine Beckford, David Ngog, Jay Spearing, David Wheater, Chris Eagles ... the list is seemingly endless. The task for QPR is made even easier as Bolton's player of this (very short) season so far, Darren Pratley, misses this game through suspension. Bolton have yet to win in the league this season, and the way QPR seem to be creating chances, I think they may have to wait a bit longer for their first victory.
We all know QPR's record in front of the Sky Cameras is appalling but everything points to them gaining at least a point here. Charlie Austin - despite his poor miss on Saturday - looks a 20 goal a season forward all over. With the leaden footed defence of Knight and Wheater as his opposition on Saturday, this looks the game in which he can open his league account for the R's. It looks a matter of time before QPR give someone a good hiding - they have come up against some excellent goalkeeping displays so far this year. In truth, I don't think it will be here but I can see Austin having some success in this game. Therefore my bet for the match is Charlie Austin first goal scorer with Ladbrokes. Each Way at 6/1 - big profit if scores first, small profit if he scores one of the first five goals.
Elsewhere, the season is starting to get going. In the much despised Premiership, Holloway gets charged by the FA after complaining that the big teams get the majority of the decisions, then the FA appoint Kevin Friend for the Chelsea v Villa game to put in a performance that completely undermines their charge and backs up Holloway's statement. I for one am glad to see the back of ‘the best league in the world’ for the time being, but it started well with my bet of the weekend last week being Benteke to score at any time against Arsenal at 11/4 so I am staying in this division for my bet of this coming weekend.
Crystal Palace Draw No Bet v Stoke at 5/2 (Spreadex/Betfair). The missed penalty by Jon Walters has papered over the cracks of what was a poor performance by Stoke up at Anfield - they could easily have been five down at half time. Palace on the other hand, put in a decent performance v Spurs. It’s hard to see where Stoke's goals are going to come from, and Palace are a hard working side with a threat on the counter. Stoke of course should be favourites, but Palace are too big a price. Money back if they draw, nice profit if they win.
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