LFW examines the sub plots and intriguing storylines bubbling away under the surface as QPR prepare to head to Wembley Stadium for the first time in 28 years. The Championship play-off final with Derby County is now just hours away.
The Championship Play-Off Final >>> Saturday May 24, 2014 >>> Kick Off 15.00 >>> Live on Sky Sports 1 >>> Wembley Stadium, London
On Saturday May 29, at about half past four in the afternoon, Charlie Austin could scarcely believe his luck.
The bustling, physical, prolific striker had started the 2009/10 football season playing in the non-league pyramid for Poole Town while working part time on his father's brick yard. He trialled at Bournemouth, and impressed, but been thwarted in his quest to break into league football by a transfer embargo placed on the Cherries. Swindon had given him a second bite — excuse the pun — and after making his professional debut in a Football League Trophy match at Exeter in October he'd gone an extraordinary scoring run which saw him eventually finish with 20 goals in 38 appearances including one that helped knock out former Premier League side Charlton Athletic in the semi-final of the end of season play-offs.
But it should have been 21.
Trailing Millwall 1-0 with 20 minutes left to play in the final at Wembley, Swindon looked to be running out of ideas when suddenly the usually impeccable Millwall centre half and captain Paul Robinson trod on the football midway inside his own half and fell to the turf. That left Austin, the ball, the goal and only Millwall keeper David Forde for company. The result, even allowing for a horrible bobble just before he got the resulting shot away, seemed a formality. In actual fact he skewed the shot wide. Not even a little bit wide either — in fact I'm not sure they ever did find that ball.
Swindon never have made it back to the Championship. Austin, of course, has. Despite that glaring miss, and the lack of league football under his belt at the time, he already looked like a player far too good for the second tier at that stage and the idea that he'd been playing as low down as Hungerford Town just a couple of years before was fairly frightening — imagine turning up to mark Charlie Austin on a Tuesday night match in the Southern League.
He's barely missed a chance since then. He scored 45 goals in 90 appearances for Burnley and spookily goes into this Wembley final once again with 20 to his name in 36 appearances for QPR — an almost identical record to his Swindon one prior to that fateful day. There’s a school of thought that says that QPR may well have been promoted, or at least finished ahead of Derby, had Austin been fit for the entire season.
The stats certainly back him up here — a goal every 0.55 games would mean an additional seven or eight goals during the time he spent nursing a shoulder injury out of the side.
There are angles and storylines jutting out from all over this intriguing, evenly matched play-off final.
Steve McClaren will be front and centre. For so long a figure of fun in this country, it's been 12 months of spectacular reputation rebuilding from him. Steve McClaren the man with the umbrella fetish. Steve McClaren the man who picked Scott Carson for England ahead of that qualifier with Croatia in the Wembley rain. Steve McClaren who talks with a comedy Dutch accent whenever interviewed by broadcasters in Holland. Steve McClaren who called Steven Gerrard Stevie G when he was England boss, and used his fat new salary to have his teeth sorted out so he'd look better in press conferences. Steve McClaren who lasted barely three months at Nottingham Forest. "Oh no, not bloody Steve McClaren" fans cried whenever he was linked with vacant jobs. Aston Villa fans protested against his proposed appointment — and ended up with Alex McLeish instead.
Out of work and unloved, he took up an offer from Harry Redknapp last summer to come and coach the shambolic shell of a football team that was Queens Park Rangers at that point in time. In the true forward planning style of Redknapp and QPR this unlikely union was apparently — according to Redknapp at least — born out of little more than the pair meeting abroad by chance, and Redknapp thinking it was a bit of a waste that he wasn't coaching somewhere. That, and 'Arry was 'avin 'is knee dan that sammer and needed a geezer to take the lads to Austria for a week.
Suddenly it was Steve McClaren the talker of sense. Steve McClaren the rejuvenator. Steve McClaren the tactical master. "The first thing we need to do is build a team, without a team you have nothing," he said, reclining in the Devon sun during QPR's pre-season tour. He helped to whip a collection of individuals who hated each other, and the fans, and the club, and had won only four matches in the entire previous season, into shape in double quick time. QPR started a season some feared could end in a second consecutive relegation with 12 unbeaten matches — a run that only came to an end when McClaren left for Derby.
Work done, McClaren then carried The Rams from fourteenth to third and this Saturday's play-off final. County were plodding along under Nigel Clough, inching closer and closer to a tilt at the play-offs year by year, but not looking likely to trouble the scorers this season. Against Brighton in the second leg of last week's semi-final they looked like a ruthless killing machine, attacking with pace and skill and vigour. They've been the outstanding Championship side to watch in the second half of the season. Now it's Steve McClaren managerial God, and the man who gave him a second chance standing in the opposite technical area potentially wishing he hadn't bothered. I dare say were Redknapp to leave, most QPR fans would have McClaren back in a heartbeat, had that ship not sailed. Imagine saying that a year ago.
And what of Yun Suk Young? For so long just another one of those players that turns up at QPR with alarming frequency, seemingly without the knowledge of the manager, because of who his agent is, or what his nationality is, or who the QPR chairman is friends with, only to never see the light of a first team shirt. In a pre-season friendly at Exeter he looked completely out of his depth. At Huddersfield in August he looked nervous. Rangers loaned him out to Doncaster where he sat out most of his spell injured. Now, Gino Padula style, he's arrived on the scene completely unexpectedly, knocking the lackadaisical efforts of the far more illustrious but seemingly terminally lazy Benoit Assou Ekotto into a cocked hat. Two months ago Rangers would happily have waved Yun off on his flight to Brazil for the World Cup whenever his nation asked them to. Now, after a fabulous solo goal at Barnsley on the final day of the season, and a game changing appearance as a substitute against Wigan in the semi-final, he's potentially a key player, and Rangers are playing silly buggers over the Fifa rule that says he has to be relinquished if his country demands it.
Harry Redknapp told the press at his Thursday media briefing that South Korea had agreed to allow the player to stay with Rangers for the final. All well and good, until South Korea released a statement today saying that no such agreement was in place and QPR hadn't been returning their calls. Suk-Young is competing with Clint Hill and Benoit Assou-Ekotto for a spot at left back.
"Who? Harry? No mate I think you've got the wrong number. Speak to who? Yun? Sorry old chum, no idea what you're on about. Fifa what? Sorry, I'm going into a tunnel…."
Clint Hill, faithful QPR warhorse, a man who has turned the Rangers opinion of him around 180 degrees, could potentially take the field for the final time tomorrow. Bought, to no great fanfare or approval, to do a job for one year at the start of the 2010/11 season by Neil Warnock, he's about to complete a fourth season at the club, having been named Player of the Year in the last two. Warnock said Hill's left ankle sounded like a cement mixer three years ago. Sent off at Wembley in 2000 as a Tranmere Rovers player in a League Cup final against Leicester City, is it his turn to climb the famous steps this weekend and lift a trophy above his head in front of 40,000 people who absolutely adore him and everything he stands for. Hill wants to stay on at QPR long term in a coaching capacity. He should be given his pick of jobs.
Redknapp himself, drawn and fed up for so much of the year, limping around after a botched knee operation, probably wishing he was standing up at a Vauxhall plant in Luton to announce his England World Cup squad, could also be on the touchline for a final time in a 30 year managerial career at 15.00 tomorrow. He says his future will be discussed after the match — early indications are he's considering retirement — but after a season when he's often looked like he'd rather be anywhere else, he came to life in the semi-final, drawing his troops together for a huddle during extra time and forcing a victory with three excellent substitutions to correct an errant starting 11. Will it all end at Wembley for him?
Ravel Morrison, bombed out to QPR on loan just as his form at West Ham was starting to have people talk of an England call up, according to Daniel Taylor at the Guardian largely because he wouldn't sign for Big Fat Sam's Big Fat Dodgy Agent, will no doubt have looked on with a wry smile as Allardyce was told publicly this week he could see out the last year of his Upton Park contract only if he appoints an attacking coach and plays a more attractive brand of football. The West Ham fans, at their wits end with Allardyce's notorious methods, voted Morrison's strike at Spurs before Christmas their Goal of the Season — point well made by them, and Morrison would no doubt like to add his own on the greatest stage in British football.
Joey Barton, who came to QPR for the money, and regretted it immediately, and played lousily throughout his first year, and completely lost his temper and reduced Rangers to ten men in a monumentally important game for the club at Manchester City two years ago, and then fluttered his eyelashes at Marseille for 12 months, and said there was no way he'd play for QPR in the Championship, and tried to get a move to Everton sorted when he wasn't wanted in France, but for some reason had his name sung by QPR fans who'd previously booed the likes of Andy Sinton, David Seaman and Trevor Sinclair at Loftus Road… forget the sycophantic hero worship, he owes QPR a performance in a big game like this. Redemption can be his this Saturday.
Junior Hoilett, seemingly a talent going to waste, with a point to prove; Niko Kranjcar, not fat actually, watch this; Little Tom Carroll, who can compete against the bigger boys and he'll prove it to you; Karl Henry and Kevin Doyle, pilloried and driven from Wolves; Richard Dunne, old, washed up, injury prone, about to complete his best season appearances wise for a decade; Robert Green, who still can't walk down the street without mention being made of Clint Dempsey, made a spectacular save in the semi-final to deny James McClean and may face penalties if it goes that far…. Everywhere you look there's a potential headline maker and a story to be told.
But you sense that if QPR's first trip to Wembley in 28 years is going to end happily, it's Charlie Austin who holds the golden key. A pressure penalty against Wigan in the second-leg at Loftus Road last week was dispatched with consummate ease, like shelling peas, without a hint of stress on his face, as if he was kicking a ball around down the local park with his dog. He'll be relishing a chance to march through on that Wembley goal with the ball at his feet for a second time.
Hold me.
Links >>> ‘Keep clear of Shepherd’s Bush tonight’ —Wembley 1967 >>> 'And Fenwick was in there' — Wembley 1982 >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/35118/smiths-split- split loyalties leads to Oxford humiliation — QPR at Wembley 1986 >>> The official anthem of Shepherd's Bush >>> Fool me once… - Opposition profile >>> McClaren adds finishing touches to Clough's groundwork — interview >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/35116/bartons-range Rangers redemption offers market value — betting >>> Givens hat-trick floors champion Derby side — history >>> Wembley travel guide >>> Rangers fighting tooth and nail — podcast >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/35117/the-rodcast-% Rodcast — Podcast >>> Mason an unpopular choice for final — referee >>> Austin beats QPR's path to Wembley Way — report >>> QPR set up Loftus Road one-off with cagey first leg — report >>> Semi-final photo gallery
Team News: Confusion continues to surround the availability or otherwise of QPR's in-form left back Yun Suk-Young. Anyway, it's all going to turn out like Cool Runnings where Yun glances off to his right after the full time whistle to see a member of the South Korean FA joining in with a steady handclap while wearing a Yun Suk-Young t-shirt.
Apart from that it's as you were. Ale Faurlin is training again but this match has come too soon while Matt Phillips and Jermaine Jenas remaine sidelined long term. Ravel Morrison was dropped for the semi-final second leg, but Kevin Doyle didn't exactly tear up any trees in a wide right role. Rob Green, Danny Simpson, Joey Barton and Charlie Austin would appear to be the only certainties, with Redknapp highly likely to keep faith with his big game players Richard Dunne and Niko Kranjcar as well.
So let's give that tombola machine a spin for a final time and see who emerges
Referee: I can recall a message board post shortly before QPR's crucial final match of the 2003/04 season at Hillsborough, when Ian Holloway's side needed to match the Bristol City result to win promotion from the Second Division. It spoke of eight thousand QPR fans massed behind the goal at the Leppings Lane End of the ground, basking in the May sunshine, euphoric after 18 wonderful months following a terrific group of players around the country and watching them give their all for a club they clearly cared passionately about. It spoke about the roar of the crowd, the expectancy, the nerves. It spoke about Ian Holloway's pre-match talk and what he would say and how players like Marc Bircham and Kevin Gallen would run through brick walls for the team they supported. It spoke about the team emerging from the tunnel and the noise and the atmosphere and the songs for each individual player being belted out from the travelling masses. And then, it said, somebody peered out towards the centre circle, squinting to see through the sunlight, before turning to the man next to him and saying: "Isn't that… isn't that Rob Styles?"
Our referee this Saturday is Lee Mason from Bolton Wanderers. For a full run down on why that's not terrific news please http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/35084/mason-an-unpo here or speak to Shaun Derry.
Derby: Derby thrashed Brighton in the playoffs, 6-2 on aggregate — winning 2-1 away and 4-1 at home. Those two wins form part of a run of seven wins and a draw in their last eight games. Derby aren’t exactly amazing on the road though — four wins, four draws, three defeats in their last 11 away from Pride Park. Overall this season they've scored 90 goals — 28 more than QPR — but conceded 54 compared to QPR's 45. They've kept 13 clean sheets to QPR's 18 and failed to score on nine occasions. Derby have scored at least two goals in seven of their last eight games. Since Steve McClaren took over, only Leicester have won more league games across the top four divisions of football. QPR and Derby have only kept one clean sheet each in their last nine games.
QPR: Since the current playoff format was introduced in 1988/89, the team finishing third has been promoted the most often (nine times), whereas the team finishing fourth has been promoted the least often (four times). In fact, the last team to win promotion from fourth place was Charlton Athletic — in 97/98. Only twice previously has a team that’s been relegated form the Premier League gone straight back up via the playoffs — Leicester in 95/96, and West Ham in 11/12. QPR have rather ambled into the end of season knock-out winning four, drawing two and losing three of their last nine games including the semi-final. They've scored 62 goals this season, conceded 45, kept 18 clean sheets and failed to score on 14 occasions. The 15 players that QPR used vs Wigan had a total of 2088 Premier League Games between them as opposed Derby’s 113 Premier League appearances vs Brighton. Of the 15 players that QPR used vs Wigan, only Charlie Austin and Yun Suk-Young have not played in the Premier League.
Betting: For the final time this season professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells us…
"So here it is. The season all boils down to this one game. It's been a funny old season - QPR have never really looked like much of a team till these play offs started. A solid away performance at the DW followed by an excellent night at Loftus Road where QPR played some lovely football after a decent start from a good Wigan side has seen the Hoops book their place for a first time appearance at 'New Wembley'.
"Past trips to 'Old Wembley' haven't been particularly kind to the Super Hoop following and looking at this fixture, it's hard to see past the fact that a lot (if not all) of QPR's chances of promotion rest on the shoulders of undoubtedly the best striker in the division, Charlie Austin.
"His performances in both legs of the semi-final epitomised everything that a fan would want in a player. Tireless work up front on his own in the away leg, chasing every ball down, trying to link up play whenever possible, coupled with his second leg performance where coolness personified existed whilst taking that pressure penalty, and the natural instinct for the winning goal means you've always got a chance when he's on the pitch. Breaking down his minutes to goals ratio for league encounters this season shows what a staggering proposition he is. A goal every 1.46 games is how it works out. When you compare that to Derby top scorer Chris Martin (who has scored more goals this season than Charlie) but has a league scoring record of a goal every 2.28 games, it only goes to emphasise the fact that QPR would probably be on their hols now preparing for the Premier League had Austin not suffered the injury woes he did.
"But that's all moot. Its all about this one game now. Will free scoring youthful Derby have too much pace and power for an aged QPR side? Or will the Rangers team's undoubted wealth of experience in big games strangle the young Rams. It truly is an intriguing encounter.
"From a betting point of view, Derby are slight favourites at 7/5, the draw is 9/4 and QPR are available at 11/5. Based on what I've seen this season, and the stats, I can't argue with this evaluation. Derby have been the better side over the season and McClaren deserves a lot of praise for the job he has done since departing Loftus Road. So I'm not interested in these prices.
"Being such a big game, there is a wealth of betting opportunities - literally hundreds of ways of losing your money. But a price that is jumping out on me like a sore thumb is the first half goals market. Derby always start like a train and you know that McClaren will be asking the same of them here. I think this game may be more open than it may look on paper, the big Wembley pitch helping this. In Derby's last eight games, they have scored a staggering 12 goals in the first half and conceded four. With Charlie Austin in the QPR team, and Junior Hoilett getting better by the week, QPR will look to exploit any opening Derby leave it what is likely to be a blood and thunder start. With so much happening in the first half of Derby games recently, the goal scoring ability of Austin, the expansive Wembley pitch and the fact that more than one goal has been scored in the first half of two of the last four Championship play-off finals, I have to recommend having a bet on Over 1.5 First half goals at a whopping 11/4 with Corals."
Bet for the final: Derby v QPR - Over 1.5 1st Half Goals - 11/4 (Corals)
Prediction: And for the last time before handing over his Prediction League crown, almost certainly to WestonsuperR who we hopefully look forward to welcoming top this column next season, Mase tells us…
"The final of the play-off will be the biggest match I and many other fans born since the 1980's will ever have seen Rangers play in. I can tell from the growing buzz and the insatiable appetite for tickets that it will be a memorable day, but the odds of Rangers making it back to the Premier League at the first go are lengthening by the hour (so tells me a colleague who like a flutter). Rangers are not seemingly, either, the neutral's choice for this game and it is to Wembley we head with something of a siege mentality. In reality, I think the teams are pretty evenly matched with Derby only marginal favourites.
"Whether it is success being toasted or sorrows being drowned come early evening I think is really down to which Derby side turns up. They have shown their ability to outgun many teams this season and are a fit, enterprising and well-drilled side. But their callowness may also prove something of an Achilles heel, particularly if we can go ahead at any stage of the game; much may come down to how Steve McClaren is able to guide them and keep body and mind together.
"There's just so much at stake, and QPR's vast experience should mean Derby find it hard to get away from us if they do go in front. Nevertheless, that is exactly what I think will happen. In many ways I think this will be a similar match to our second leg against Wigan, Derby making most of the play with us in the Wigan role soaking up pressure and looking, to borrow a Muhammad Ali phrase, to 'rope-a-dope' them. A fascinating match up and hopefully a game worthy of the occasion.
"If it comes to it, another season in the Championship wouldn't be so bad anyway - think of all the London derbies we'll have.
"Come on you R's."
Mase's Prediction: Derby 2-1 QPR. Scorer: Charlie Austin
LFW's Prediction: Derby 0-1 QPR after extra time. Scorer: Charlie Austin
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