Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding reckons that, despite last week’s glaring miss, midfielder Leroy Fer is getting closer to breaking his QPR duck.
QPR return to Loftus Road after a performance that came from nowhere last week. Shepherd’s Bush and Liverpool are both areas well accustomed to robberies, and one was staged at W12 last Sunday lunchtime.
Two very unfortunate own goals condemned Rangers to an undeserved defeat - one which makes the Monday night visit of Aston Villa all the more important. I was taken aback by QPR's performance. Harry Redknapp suddenly stirred up some passion in his belly for the first time I can remember during his tenure at Loftus Road. Players looked interested, chasing down left right and centre, tackles flying in. It was a joy to watch. I was sitting in a pub full of Stoke fans watching the game and was constantly hearing comments such as "how the hell are QPR bottom of the league based on this performance?” but the truth is this has taken a long time to materialise.
Where does this leave us from a betting point of view for Monday? I have to assume QPR will play with the same urgency they showed last week and if so, three points could be on the cards. A quick look at the opposition shows they aren't in great form - four defeats in a row and the loss of England midfielder Fabian Delph won’t help their cause. But looking closer, those four defeats have come at the hands of four of last season's top five. Although comprehensively beaten by Chelsea, Everton and Arsenal, a good performance warranted more than the defeat they suffered against Man City. Readers of my columns will know I’m a big fan of Christian Benteke and he is slowly returning to full match fitness after a long lay off. If QPR can keep him quiet, then success could prevail for the Hoops but Villa are better than their recent form suggests.
Price wise, QPR are best priced 7/5, with the draw at 23/10 and Villa at 12/5. In truth, none of those seem over generous and so I’m looking in the goal scorer market. Neither team can keep a clean sheet at present so there could be a bit of value in the scorer markets. The two players who are overpriced both play in midfield. Leroy Fer has flattered to deceive in recent weeks but has obviously been told to push further forward if Sunday’s set up was anything to go by and he nearly netted on a number of occasions - 13/2 seems generous. And for the opposition, with Delph missing, this gives Cleverley more licence to get forward. At 11/1 to score anytime, he is worth an interest too.
Eudardo Vargas also looks a great price at 7/2 to score anytime if he starts, but I’m not convinced he will so keep powder dry here until team announced.
It’s going to be nervy for both sides and I feel the side who makes the least mistakes may come out on top.
Recommended small bets- QPR v Aston Villa
Leroy Fer To score anytime 13/2 Paddy Power
Tom Cleverley To score anytime 11/1 Paddy Power
Juan Vargas (if starting) To Score Anytime 7/2 Paddy Power
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