Ahead of two trips to Nottingham this month, LFW caught up with our regular Forest contributor Jack McCormick for the latest situation at The City Ground.
Assess Forest's season so far for us...
JM: Pretty much as we expected it to be - considering the restraints placed upon the club in the form of the much-maligned transfer embargo. This was always going to be a season of consolidation with a renewed push (hopefully) next season.
That said, manager Dougie Freedman has made some cracking loan and free signings that have made us dream of a play-off charge in the second half of the season. The potential is certainly there - as you will remember from the win at Loftus Road earlier this term - but we're not yet showing it on a consistent enough basis.
We started the season reasonably well, the performances were good and the results were average, then just after we beat QPR we went on a horrible run and didn't win in eight. We still weren't playing badly but we weren't getting the results we deserved and Freedman's job was certainly on the line. He has arrested that slide (more on that below), which had seen us plummet to just two points outside the relegation spots, and we're now unbeaten in eight.
The problem now is that we've become the draw specialists - drawing five of those eight. Most frustratingly, we've thrown away 1-0 leads in the past three games to draw 1-1 in each. We're struggling to score more than once a game and fans are growing bored of Freedman's perceived 'negative' tactics once we take the lead. Indeed, there have been games where we perhaps should have put the opposition to bed long before the equaliser came, had we continued to press rather than bringing on another midfielder and sitting back.
With a couple of sensible signings this month and the likes of Britt Assombalonga and Matty Fryatt to come back from injury in February, we may be entitled to maintain that faint hope of late play-off drama.
Forest one of three clubs deemed to (still) be in breach of FFP so (still) under a transfer embargo. How? Why? When will this end?
JM: We spent too much money and ignored the rules, in what I assume was an effort to win promotion and thus escape the clutches of FFP (a bit like you lot did). It didn't work, in fact we haven't come close to promotion for a good few seasons now, and now we're paying the price. The embargo was always for two years, so we're due to come out of it in the summer and hopefully Freedman will be allowed the time and money to continue the rebuilding job he's started.
There were rumours the embargo might have been lifted early, in time for the January window, thanks to the sale of Michail Antonio at the end of August, but that didn't happen.
How does it affect January? Are more players going to have to leave?
JM: It means we're still restricted in who we can bring in - loans or free transfers; no more than £10k/week wages; maximum 25 first team squad members - but we're in a comfortable financial position and don't need to sell. Sales would be pointless anyway as we wouldn't be able to use the money yet to replace them. That's not to say we won't sell if the price is right but there'll be no fire sale at the City Ground.
Even in the last window the only significant departure was Antonio, who we got £7m for - good business considering we only paid £1.5m 12 months earlier, and considering our over-reliance on him had seriously unbalanced the side. The only others to leave in August were deadwood on pre-embargo wages, while we brought in a number of hungry frees and loans that aren't just looking for another pay day.
Dougie Freedman seemed to be on the verge of the sack earlier this season but has turned it round slightly, how did he do it?
JM: As I mentioned earlier, we were in a bit of a rut. Not playing badly by any stretch, but not winning either. After losing 2-1 at Brentford despite having 11 men versus their 10, Dougie got pissed off with how easily we were rolling over and went back to basics, making us hard to beat and effectively setting up to play every game like an away tie - let the opposition have the ball and hit them on the break, led by the pacey Ryan Mendes, technically gifted Nelson Oliveira and sheer class and composure of David Vaughan (our player of the season so far). That led to a few more wins but there remains the fear that when we go a goal up we aren't good enough to kill the game off, so we inevitably defend deeper and deeper until we concede an equaliser - hence the run of draws at the moment.
Still, it feels like we're not far off being a decent side that can give most teams in this division a good game.
In Forest's Christmas games (at least the ones I saw) they seemed very deep and defensive, and counter attacking based, even at home. Is this deliberate? Is it working? How has it been received by the fans?
JM: That's correct - as above this has been a deliberate tactic. Our possession stats from some recent matches:
- Forest 44% v 56% Reading (at home, won 3-1)
- Forest 43% v 57% Fulham (at home, won 3-0)
- Forest 34% v 66% MK Dons (at home, won 2-1)
- Forest 39% v 61% Leeds (at home, drew 1-1)
- Forest 38% v 62% Cardiff (away, drew 1-1)
As you can see, there's a weird trend going on that the opposition is having almost twice as much possession but we're still drawing or even winning. Despite all this possession it's not like these teams are carving us open again and again and somehow failing to beat us. We're effectively saying: "Here's the ball. Come and have a go. We will get one body part or another in front of anything you throw at us."
We haven't tested this against a top club yet so I'm not sure how long we can keep it up, but for now it's working. It's not much fun to watch, but when we do get the ball back and counter we look very dangerous. I imagine it will be the same story this weekend - you will almost certainly have the majority of possession but you won't manage to create much against two solid banks of four and we will win it (or at least create a couple of brilliant chances to win it) on the break.
Stand out performers and weak links in the side?
JM: I mentioned Mendes, Oliveira and Vaughan earlier. Henri Lansbury is playing deeper this year, dictating the tempo in a Pirlo-esque role, so won't make the headlines but is having a big influence nonetheless. I just wish he'd stop taking set pieces. If, as is rumoured, we re-sign Gary Gardner on loan from Villa, he will be another to watch - bags of energy and ability in the middle of the park and a lethal long shot. How he's not in the Villa side is beyond me.
Another one of our left backs has suffered a cruciate knee ligament injury and will be out for a year, so we've had Michael Mancienne filling in there in the past few games. Chris Cohen came back from his own injury in the last match so could fill in, but we're supposed to be signing a Serbian international on loan from Villarreal before Saturday. If we don't sign him in time, left back is a definite weak link, but it's the only area I look at with any real concern. We could do with a prolific striker but we're not really in a position to be greedy.
Keep an eye on 21-year-old Ben Osborn, who could play at centre mid or wide on the left. He's industrious, skilful and possess a wonderful left foot. He's a little lightweight but in my opinion will be a mainstay of a mid-table Premier League team in a year or two. He's also from a Derby supporting family but silenced the Rams with an injury time winner at Pride Park last season, so he's a bit of a cult hero.
The Twitter @Jack_McCormick, @loftforwords
Pictures — Action Images