| Tory Leadership Race 09:57 - May 31 with 58064 views | Dorse |
Not a party political thing or a reason for an LFW punch-up, but I keep having the eerie feeling that eventually every single Tory MP will put themselves forward leaving Teresa May with the casting vote. At which point, she cackles maniacally and slowly points at Jacob Rees Mogg sitting at the back, with the entire parliamentary party turning to stare at him... He is seen to gulp and mutter 'Oh, copulate my happenstance' |  |
| 'What do we want? We don't know! When do we want it? Now!' |
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| Tory Leadership Race on 23:30 - Jun 10 with 1844 views | baldyoldgit |
| Tory Leadership Race on 23:12 - Jun 10 by essextaxiboy |
I think we have to be prepared for no deal and walk them to the edge . They have form for last minute compromise .We have to allow them to save face.
Bottom line No they wont re open it but they will find a way of legally moving towards us ...IMO |
a last minute comprise hasn't happened twice now, EU haven't blinked. both times we've had to beg for an extension. why?
Cos a no deal brexit would be a catastrophe for the UK, probably break the GFA (enraging the yanks) and possibility threaten the union itself.
The tories don't even have a majority. a new PM just inherits all of May's problems. their only way out is to call a GE and the only way the tories will win is to jib brexit. |  | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 23:54 - Jun 10 with 1810 views | baldyoldgit |
| Tory Leadership Race on 23:30 - Jun 10 by baldyoldgit |
a last minute comprise hasn't happened twice now, EU haven't blinked. both times we've had to beg for an extension. why?
Cos a no deal brexit would be a catastrophe for the UK, probably break the GFA (enraging the yanks) and possibility threaten the union itself.
The tories don't even have a majority. a new PM just inherits all of May's problems. their only way out is to call a GE and the only way the tories will win is to jib brexit. |
tonight:
“Members of parliament will find a way to stop no deal” says @AmberRuddHR - alleging @BorisJohnson is making empty pledge to deliver no deal on 31 October if he fails to get a Brexit compromise from EU. | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 07:10 - Jun 11 with 1708 views | Hooparoo |
| Tory Leadership Race on 23:54 - Jun 10 by baldyoldgit |
tonight:
“Members of parliament will find a way to stop no deal” says @AmberRuddHR - alleging @BorisJohnson is making empty pledge to deliver no deal on 31 October if he fails to get a Brexit compromise from EU. |
As an observer from afar, it’s sad to see the country of Churchill, Henry V and Queen Elizabeth the first wetting their pants over the threats of a few overpaid European bureaucrats.
Stand up, be proud, tell them to get stuffed then pick up the phone to all the countries that would be happy to do trade deals with you.
Sorted. 😉 |  |
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| Tory Leadership Race on 07:15 - Jun 11 with 1701 views | distortR |
| Tory Leadership Race on 07:10 - Jun 11 by Hooparoo |
As an observer from afar, it’s sad to see the country of Churchill, Henry V and Queen Elizabeth the first wetting their pants over the threats of a few overpaid European bureaucrats.
Stand up, be proud, tell them to get stuffed then pick up the phone to all the countries that would be happy to do trade deals with you.
Sorted. 😉 |
duck, Hooparoo, DUCK! | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:17 - Jun 11 with 1561 views | essextaxiboy |
| Tory Leadership Race on 23:30 - Jun 10 by baldyoldgit |
a last minute comprise hasn't happened twice now, EU haven't blinked. both times we've had to beg for an extension. why?
Cos a no deal brexit would be a catastrophe for the UK, probably break the GFA (enraging the yanks) and possibility threaten the union itself.
The tories don't even have a majority. a new PM just inherits all of May's problems. their only way out is to call a GE and the only way the tories will win is to jib brexit. |
Why? is easy .. because they knew that they were negotiating with a team who would blink every time . |  | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:26 - Jun 11 with 1546 views | robith |
I don't really get why there's so many of them?
Like in Labour contests there's often between 2 - 5 candidates, representing various wings of thought in the party.
But here it's just loads of people who all think "I fancy it" rather than representing any body of thought or support? |  | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:28 - Jun 11 with 1541 views | Maggsinho |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:17 - Jun 11 by essextaxiboy |
Why? is easy .. because they knew that they were negotiating with a team who would blink every time . |
That's easy to say when you're in a leadership election, less easy to do when you're faced with a blunt reality.
How many times did May say we'd be leaving, regardless of having a deal, 'no deal is better than a bad deal' and all that but when it came to the crunch she realised that the impact on the economy, on the union, on the party, etc, etc was too high a price to pay. I don't see how having a different PM changes any of this. |  | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:33 - Jun 11 with 1529 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
The Uk is the 2nd/3rd largest economy in the EU and people think they would walk away without a deal. that really would be dumb.
The damage would be as bad for them as us.
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Good luck to them finding someone else with a 2300Bn economy.
Maybe they could try the Yanks [Post edited 11 Jun 2019 11:44]
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| Tory Leadership Race on 11:38 - Jun 11 with 1525 views | ElHoop |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:26 - Jun 11 by robith |
I don't really get why there's so many of them?
Like in Labour contests there's often between 2 - 5 candidates, representing various wings of thought in the party.
But here it's just loads of people who all think "I fancy it" rather than representing any body of thought or support? |
The more shit they are the more there are that are so shit - it's just a shit thing. They're all shit. |  | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:43 - Jun 11 with 1520 views | bob566 |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:26 - Jun 11 by robith |
I don't really get why there's so many of them?
Like in Labour contests there's often between 2 - 5 candidates, representing various wings of thought in the party.
But here it's just loads of people who all think "I fancy it" rather than representing any body of thought or support? |
Edwina Currie was on irish radio this morning. She said a couple of the candidates won't get enough support to carry on to the next voting phase but she reckons another 5-6 candidates will drop out at that stage too even if they have enough support to carry on due to the whole process is a very expensive one and they won't have the financial clout to carry through. She reckoned it will come down to Hunt and Boris with Boris coming out victorious.
She said Gove was by far the best speaker of them all in the house. Probably the best candidate who has held some decent cabinet positions. Highly intelligent but likely to have blown it with the conservative back benchers. The fact he used to write articles for the Times condemning cocaine use and all the injured parties along the way whilst taking the stuff won't sit pretty with them.
When prompted on will they find a bit of dirt on Boris she said no as it would have already have been written during his tenure as mayor if they had anything to write.
She also said she can't see Boris taking a cabinet position should someone else win it. | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 13:13 - Jun 11 with 1450 views | essextaxiboy |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:28 - Jun 11 by Maggsinho |
That's easy to say when you're in a leadership election, less easy to do when you're faced with a blunt reality.
How many times did May say we'd be leaving, regardless of having a deal, 'no deal is better than a bad deal' and all that but when it came to the crunch she realised that the impact on the economy, on the union, on the party, etc, etc was too high a price to pay. I don't see how having a different PM changes any of this. |
How many times did the EU say "tell us what you want " . When Raab tried it he was sidelined and quit because of it .
When you are negotiating with someone who basically wants what you want and promises to never walk away its easy . | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 14:42 - Jun 11 with 1389 views | derbyhoop |
| Tory Leadership Race on 13:13 - Jun 11 by essextaxiboy |
How many times did the EU say "tell us what you want " . When Raab tried it he was sidelined and quit because of it .
When you are negotiating with someone who basically wants what you want and promises to never walk away its easy . |
I think you're mistaken in that belief.
The EU (Barnier, Tusk, Juncker, Verhofstadt) have consistently said the withdrawal agreement will not be re-negotiated. Some of them will be stepping down but the EU27 have been absolutely consistent all the way through the negotiations. It's reached the stage where many of Barnier's team, e.g Sabine Weyand, have been re-deployed. Even if, a new PM wanted to re-open the deal, who are they going to talk to. Besides which, is there any time left for serious negotiations. New leader at end of July, Summer recess, party conferences and suddenly it's Oct 31st.
Despite/because of what so many candidates are saying no-deal remains both the default option and seems increasingly likely. Every govt assessment, virtually every economic forecaster, the BOE, the CBI the BMA, Chambers of Commerce, parliament itself all know that no-deal will cause immense damage to the UK economy and have warned against it.
If it wasn't for the potential damage it would almost be worth trying no-deal for a little while and see how it pans out. Trouble is you can't go back on it. |  |
| Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one’s lifetime. (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop |
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| Tory Leadership Race on 16:43 - Jun 11 with 1298 views | baldyoldgit |
| Tory Leadership Race on 07:10 - Jun 11 by Hooparoo |
As an observer from afar, it’s sad to see the country of Churchill, Henry V and Queen Elizabeth the first wetting their pants over the threats of a few overpaid European bureaucrats.
Stand up, be proud, tell them to get stuffed then pick up the phone to all the countries that would be happy to do trade deals with you.
Sorted. 😉 |
Churchill, Henry V and Queen Elizabeth the first still couldn't solve the NI border issue. I bet none of them would throw the union under the bus either.
Most of the countries we want to do trade deals with are still in the EU. Look at the ones who have agreed some sort of roll over deals - Faroe Islands, Israel, Korea, Chile, Icelend, etc. Even Korea will still have a say in any other future trade deals we sign. Only 14% of our current trade deals have rolled over. And many of those don't include services so the total 'trade' will be less than that.
USA wants a deal but we know what that means now.
EU will want a deal but before then they will expect us to sort NI border, pay £39Bn and sort rights for EU nationals.
China and India will want deals but both will require visas and immigration. EU has tried to do trade deals with India in the past and failed every time. You think the UK will get one?
What's left?
May tried to trick a new treaty out of the EU by triggering A50, she never intended actually leaving as she thought the EU would shit itself. It hasn't. If we could leave the EU without nose-diving the economy we would have already. If we could leave the EU without breaking the GFA we would have already. A different PM will change nothing.
Bluster, rhetoric and English exceptionalism ain't going to cut it.
FWIW I'm no fan of the EU. I think the EURO is an awful idea. I can see a EU army eventually replacing NATO. Allowing lots of small countries to join does them no long term favour if their economy isn't strong. Hence the Swiss and Norway not joining. | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 16:56 - Jun 11 with 1283 views | baldyoldgit |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:17 - Jun 11 by essextaxiboy |
Why? is easy .. because they knew that they were negotiating with a team who would blink every time . |
Davis and Raab are both ardent leavers. Davis realised after 10 minutes that the EU wasn't going to talk trade until we'd left. He did nothing for two years because of it.
3 years down the line and still people think it's about negotiation, hard talking and bluffing. The EU doesn't work like that. Sure they will give and take during talks but they won't move on the four freedoms just because of a temporary whole in their budgets. The SM is more important than that. as is freedom of movement. | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 17:00 - Jun 11 with 1279 views | baldyoldgit |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:38 - Jun 11 by ElHoop |
The more shit they are the more there are that are so shit - it's just a shit thing. They're all shit. |
what's really funny about all this is whoever wins may not even command a majority. DUP wont vote with anyone who doesn't give them what they want - brexit included. If they dont get a majority the queen may not even ask them to form a government! then what? | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 17:04 - Jun 11 with 1273 views | baldyoldgit |
and as if on cue:
"Labour has tabled a cross-party motion to stop a future prime minister pushing through a no-deal Brexit against the wishes of MPs.
The party plans to force a vote on Wednesday, which would give MPs control of the timetable on 25 June.
Labour says if the motion passes, MPs will be able to introduce legislation to avoid a no-deal scenario at the end of October.
Some Tory leadership hopefuls have said they would leave the EU without a deal.
The government normally controls business in the Commons - but MPs have previously seized control to legislate in favour of extending the Brexit process." | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 17:55 - Jun 11 with 1210 views | Mistication92 |
@Baldyoldgit
2 questions:
- Why do you think there will be a Queen's Speech in the next few months? AFAIK the government doesn't have to start a new sitting of parliament if it doesn't want to. Seems like the Tories don't want to have to negotiate again to retain the DUP support so they can just let this sitting run and run?
- Why would the current US administration care about wrecking the GFA? Trump would be happy to see no deal - far more chance for a US-UK trade deal that's firmly weighed on the US side, no? | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 18:08 - Jun 11 with 1193 views | daveB |
| Tory Leadership Race on 11:33 - Jun 11 by 2Thomas2Bowles |
The Uk is the 2nd/3rd largest economy in the EU and people think they would walk away without a deal. that really would be dumb.
The damage would be as bad for them as us.
.
Good luck to them finding someone else with a 2300Bn economy.
Maybe they could try the Yanks [Post edited 11 Jun 2019 11:44]
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damage wouldn't be so bad for them, we'd be in a position where we still need to agree a deal with them for future relations and they can say Ok we'll let you trade with us but it will cost you x billion a year to do it and we can say talk about Churchill and being great all we like they'll have us bent over a barrel trading on terms no other country with our economy has ever worked in before. The Government know this which is why no deal will never happen. It will be either the current withdrawal agreement with a new PM negotiating the final deal or article 50 is revoked and either gone forever or start from the beginning again |  | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 18:16 - Jun 11 with 1179 views | hubble |
Leadsom's gone right up in my estimation now I know she smokes weed (as she calls it, being au fait with street parlance) |  | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 18:17 - Jun 11 with 1176 views | Dorse |
Rory Stewart: the thinking man's Skeletor. | |
| 'What do we want? We don't know! When do we want it? Now!' |
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| Tory Leadership Race on 18:23 - Jun 11 with 1171 views | baldyoldgit |
| Tory Leadership Race on 17:55 - Jun 11 by Mistication92 |
@Baldyoldgit
2 questions:
- Why do you think there will be a Queen's Speech in the next few months? AFAIK the government doesn't have to start a new sitting of parliament if it doesn't want to. Seems like the Tories don't want to have to negotiate again to retain the DUP support so they can just let this sitting run and run?
- Why would the current US administration care about wrecking the GFA? Trump would be happy to see no deal - far more chance for a US-UK trade deal that's firmly weighed on the US side, no? |
if they let it run and run then they'll face a vote of no confidence. if they opt for a Queens speech, with a brexit decision, they'll face a vote of no confidence. they may as well set out what else they'd like to do apart from brexit even if it is meaningless.
any new tory PM won't have a majority unless they have DUP support, numbers in the HoC havent changed. DUP will want to know what the new PMs intentions are, their previous 'understanding' was with May.
what else is a new PM going to do? nothing else matters till brexit is sorted.
if we get a general election i think that means they HAVE to have a queen's speech as it's clearly a different parliament.
Trump doesn't understand any of that I don't think. He compared the NI border to the US border with Mexico FFS. The GFA is held in huge regard in US politics. 1/2 the country thinks it's basically Irish and it's about the only bit of foreign policy in the last 40 years that America can point at and say is successful.
good read here - https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irishvoice/irish-americans-protect-belfast-goo
if we leave without a deal and do one quickly with the US then the EU won't touch us with a barge pole until we sort the border. they don't want crap chicken entering the SM. If we do a deal moderately quickly with the EU first we will either have somehow solved the border issue (unlikely) or the EU will have a say over every aspects of the US deal like they do with all our deals now as we'll be in the backstop. | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 18:36 - Jun 11 with 1158 views | Mistication92 |
"If they let it run and run then they'd face a VoNC..."
Ok but a VoNC that they'd win? How do you think a VoNC plays out atm?
Quick look at the numbers, suggests 323-320 (313 Tories + DUP) but that's presuming the Change and ex-Change vote no confidence plus Boles and other independent conservatives.
The DUP aren't going to let Corbyn have a sniff of no.10 if they can avoid it? | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 19:32 - Jun 11 with 1107 views | baldyoldgit |
| Tory Leadership Race on 18:36 - Jun 11 by Mistication92 |
"If they let it run and run then they'd face a VoNC..."
Ok but a VoNC that they'd win? How do you think a VoNC plays out atm?
Quick look at the numbers, suggests 323-320 (313 Tories + DUP) but that's presuming the Change and ex-Change vote no confidence plus Boles and other independent conservatives.
The DUP aren't going to let Corbyn have a sniff of no.10 if they can avoid it? |
new PM will have to declare a position on brexit, some of them are declaring it now during the hustings. So, as previously said, we get :
The only way they could win it is by promising the impossible:
You could promise no border in the Irish Sea. You win the DUP, but then you can't Brexit, so you'd lose as many Tory votes as you gained with the DUP.
No confidence, general election.
You could promise to put a border in Ireland. Break the Good Friday Agreement. America would go mental, you would get no trade with them or with Europe.
No confidence, general election.
If you're not putting a border up, you'll have to accept may's deal, which the DUP and the Euro nutters will never agree. They've just sacked one prime minister over it. Want another?
No confidence, general election.
What about leaving with no deal? The DUP and the ERG would take that, and you'd still lose by 400 votes.
No confidence, general election. | | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 19:47 - Jun 11 with 1078 views | colinallcars |
| Tory Leadership Race on 18:16 - Jun 11 by hubble |
Leadsom's gone right up in my estimation now I know she smokes weed (as she calls it, being au fait with street parlance) |
We used to call it Bob Hope in my day...... |  | | |
| Tory Leadership Race on 20:03 - Jun 11 with 1050 views | CamberleyR |
| Tory Leadership Race on 18:17 - Jun 11 by Dorse |
Rory Stewart: the thinking man's Skeletor. |
Is it just me or does he remind anyone else of a ventriloquist's dummy? |  |
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